It’s been a week since the NFL draft began, and hundreds of players learned where they’d begin their NFL careers. For the 32 players taken in Round 1 of the draft, there are high expectations as they enter their rookie seasons.
In recent years, the NFL has seen some exceptional rookie performances from Brock Bowers setting the rookie reception record, Puka Nacua breaking the rookie receiving yards record and Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson all reaching 1,400 receiving yards in their rookie seasons. Those performances, however, are far from the norm for most rookies, who are working to adjust to NFL-level offenses, defenses and the speed of the game as a whole.
As rookies head to minicamps, here’s a realistic look at what every first-round pick could achieve statistically during their rookie season.
1. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Raiders
Rookie stats prediction: 2,512 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, seven interceptions (66.1% completion)
The Raiders are not looking to start Fernando Mendoza immediately, preferring to sit him behind veteran Kirk Cousins. Even so, it’s likely Mendoza will see the field at some point as a rookie. Assuming he sees significant playing time in 2026, he should be able to put up respectable numbers.
2. David Bailey, Edge, Jets
Rookie stats prediction: 44 total tackles, 9 sacks, two forced fumbles
By choosing David Bailey over Arvell Reese at No. 2, the Jets went with a sure product and proven sack artist. Look for Bailey to contribute immediately as the Jets’ defense tries to turn things around with Aaron Glenn calling the plays.
3. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Cardinals
Rookie stats prediction: 1,078 rushing yards, 250 receiving yards, 12 total touchdowns (4.6 YPC)
The Cardinals might not have an answer at quarterback, but Jeremiyah Love should quickly become a star and the focal point of this Arizona offense. The Cardinals have enough other weapons to keep teams from always loading the box on Arizona, even if they don’t have the quarterback that will scare opposing defenses.
4. Carnell Tate, WR, Titans
Rookie stats prediction: 69 catches, 1,028 yards, six touchdowns
Carnell Tate never recorded 1,000 yards in a season in college, but he’s in a good spot to do so with the Titans. No other returning pass-catcher on the Titans recorded more than 600 receiving yards last season, and while Tennessee added Wan’Dale Robinson after his 1,000-yard season for the Giants, Robinson often plays in the slot. Tate might’ve been the No. 2 guy to Jeremiah Smith at Ohio State, but he projects as a go-to option on the outside for Cam Ward and the Titans.
5. Arvell Reese, LB, Giants
Rookie stats prediction: 64 total tackles, four sacks
Joining a Giants defense that already features three good edge rushers in Kayvon Thibodeaux, Brian Burns and Abdul Carter, Arvell Reese will be starting off primarily at off-ball linebacker. As such, his predicted sack totals aren’t high, but he will surely be an impact defender for the Giants in the middle of the field.
6. Mansoor Delane, CB, Chiefs
Rookie stats prediction: 48 total tackles, two interceptions, six pass breakups
Following the departures of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson this offseason, the Chiefs retooled their secondary by trading up for LSU corner Mansoor Delane. In his final season with the Tigers, Delane allowed opposing passers to complete only 40% of their attempts against him. He should be a stellar fit for Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.
7. Sonny Styles, LB, Commanders
Rookie stats prediction: 103 total tackles, two sacks, one forced fumble
Sonny Styles joins a linebacker crew already featuring Frankie Luvu and free-agent addition Leo Chenal. Commanders coach Dan Quinn is excited to deploy Styles’s versatility in their defense, whether it’s using him as a blitzer or aligning him in different spots on the field.
8. Jordyn Tyson, WR, Saints
Rookie stats prediction: 54 catches, 707 yards, five touchdowns
Unlike Tate, Jordyn Tyson does not necessarily project as the Saints’ immediate top option. That honor belongs to Chris Olave, who caught 100 passes for 1,163 yards and nine touchdowns in 2025. Tyson can quickly come in and be the Saints’ No. 2 option, but with his injury concerns, he gets a conservative prediction for his rookie season stats.
9. Spencer Fano, OL, Browns
Rookie stats prediction: N/A
After spending the past two seasons playing right tackle at Utah, Spencer Fano is slated to begin his NFL career at left tackle for the Browns. He’ll look to keep the winner of Cleveland’s quarterback competition upright.
10. Francis Mauigoa, OL, Giants
Rookie stats prediction: N/A
With two starting tackles already in place, Francis Mauigoa is expected to start out at right guard for the Giants, the team’s biggest area of need on the offensive line.
11. Caleb Downs, S, Cowboys
Rookie stats prediction: 61 total tackles, two interceptions, five pass breakups
The best safety prospect since Kyle Hamilton and the highest-drafted safety since Minkah Fitzpatrick in 2018, Downs is a rookie that can quickly become a central piece of this Cowboys defense. His impact might not always be reflected on the stat sheet, but Downs should be a versatile chess piece in Christian Parker’s defense.
12. Kadyn Proctor, OL, Dolphins
Rookie stats prediction: N/A
After starring at tackle for the Crimson Tide, Kadyn Proctor will be moving to left guard to start his tenure with the Dolphins.
13. Ty Simpson, QB, Rams
Rookie stats prediction: 15 of 21, 131 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception
Ty Simpson is expected to spend at least his rookie season riding the bench for Matthew Stafford. While Simpson will get to learn under Stafford, he could see time on the field briefly if the Rams are in a blowout or have already clinched their playoff seeding before Week 18.
14. Vega Ioane, OL, Ravens
Rookie stats prediction: N/A
The Ravens might not have drafted a center to replace Tyler Linderbaum, but they did land the best interior offensive lineman in the draft in Vega Ioane.
15. Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Buccaneers
Rookie stats prediction: 50 total tackles, seven sacks, one forced fumble
The Buccaneers got the edge rush help they desperately needed in Rueben Bain Jr., who surprisingly fell to No. 15 in the draft. Bain notched 9.5 sacks in his final season at Miami, and should help improve Tampa’s edge rush as he reaches the NFL.
16. Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Jets
Rookie stats prediction: 49 catches, 510 yards, four touchdowns
Kenyon Sadiq joins a Jets offense looking to rebound after finishing 2025 last in passing yards. The athletic tight end out of Oregon will be competing for targets with second-year tight end Mason Taylor, who finished second on the team last season in receiving with 44 receptions for 369 yards and a touchdown.
17. Blake Miller, OL, Lions
Rookie stats prediction: N/A
After parting ways with long-time tackle Taylor Decker this offseason, the Lions found a younger option in Clemson’s Blake Miller. With All-Pro Penei Sewell slated to move to left tackle to replace Decker, Miller could certainly slot in at right tackle for the Lions.
18. Caleb Banks, DT, Vikings
Rookie stats prediction: 21 total tackles, two sacks
Caleb Banks came into the draft with concerns regarding his foot injuries, particularly after he underwent another surgery in March after hurting his foot again at the combine. The Vikings feel good about where he’ll be health-wise heading into training camp, giving him the opportunity to be a key contributor during his rookie season.
19. Monroe Freeling, OL, Panthers
Rookie stats prediction: N/A
With Ickey Ekwonu recovering from a torn patellar tendon injury, the Panthers signed Rasheed Walker in free agency. Now, they’ve also added tackle Monroe Freeling, who will have the chance to compete for a starting spot on the offensive line.
20. Makai Lemon, WR, Eagles
Rookie stats prediction: 47 catches, 634 yards, six touchdowns
Makai Lemon enters an interesting situation as the Eagles are changing their offensive scheme under Sean Mannion and are also expected to trade top wideout A.J. Brown. Assuming the Eagles go through with moving Brown, DeVonta Smith will be the team’s No. 1 wideout and Lemon will be competing for targets with other additions to the receiving core including Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown.
21. Max Iheanachor, OL, Steelers
Rookie stats prediction: N/A
Max Iheanachor joins a Steelers offensive line facing uncertainty as left tackle Broderick Jones deals with a neck injury. Iheanachor played right tackle at Arizona State, and is a developmental prospect after not starting football until community college.
22. Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Chargers
Rookie stats prediction: 44 total tackles, five sacks, one forced fumble
Akheem Mesidor joins a Chargers defense featuring pass rushers Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu. The Chargers saw Odafe Oweh leave for the Commanders in free agency, and have brought in the 25-year-old Mesidor, who recorded 12.5 sacks in his final season with Miami.
23. Malachi Lawrence, Edge, Cowboys
Rookie stats prediction: 30 total tackles, five sacks, one forced fumble
Malachi Lawrence heads to Dallas after recording 20 sacks during his time at UCF. Lawrence joins a Cowboys defensive line that also added Rashan Gary, Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark since trading Micah Parsons.
24. KC Concepcion, WR, Browns
Rookie stats prediction: 61 catches, 784 yards, seven touchdowns
KC Concepcion should be an immediate contributor on a Browns’ offense that was lacking in weapons heading into this draft. Concepcion will be competing for targets with Denzel Boston, who the Browns selected in the second round.
25. Dillon Thieneman, S, Bears
Rookie stats prediction: 70 total tackles, three interceptions, four pass breakups
Thieneman joins a Bears defense that lost three safeties, but also gained defensive back Coby Bryant this offseason. The speedy safety out of Oregon should quickly help the back end of Chicago’s defense after notching 96 total tackles, two picks and five pass breakups for the Ducks last season and finishing his college career as PFF’s fourth-highest graded safety.
26. Keylan Rutledge, OG, Texans
Rookie stats prediction: N/A
The Texans traded up to select Keylan Rutledge, who will be part of their revamped offensive line in 2026. Houston previously traded Tytus Howard and Juice Scruggs this offseason, and brought in Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller during free agency.
27. Chris Johnson, CB, Dolphins
Rookie stats prediction: 44 total tackles, two interceptions, seven pass breakups
Chris Johnson is slated to upgrade a Dolphins secondary that moved off of veterans such as Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jalen Ramsey over the past year as part of their overall youth movement. The San Diego State product tallied four picks for the Aztecs last season and ranked second among FBS corners, according to PFF.
28. Caleb Lomu, OL, Patriots
Rookie stats prediction: N/A
The last of nine offensive linemen taken in the first round of the draft this year, Caleb Lomu comes to the Patriots after playing left tackle at Utah. Lomu is the latest addition to New England’s offensive line, which added Alijah Vera-Tucker in free agency and drafted Will Campbell at No. 4 last year.
29. Peter Woods, DT, Chiefs
Rookie stats prediction: 22 total tackles, two sacks, one forced fumble
Like Chris Johnson, Peter Woods is part of the Chiefs’ youth movement on defense. If it’s up to him, however, he won’t only be a playmaker on defense. Woods joked recently that he’s already spoken to coach Andy Reid about getting an opportunity on offense in a goal-line situation.
30. Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Jets
Rookie stats prediction: 40 catches, 656 yards, six touchdowns
Cooper is the second weapon the Jets added to their offense in this draft, after already taking Sadiq. He’ll join a suddenly crowded Jets offense featuring playmakers in him, Sadiq, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Mason Taylor and Adonai Mitchell.
31. Keldric Faulk, Edge, Titans
Rookie stats prediction: 40 total tackles, three sacks
Heading into the NFL, Keldric Faulk is looking to convert more of his pressures into sacks. He notched just two sacks in his final season at Auburn, and will look to up that total under Robert Saleh.
32. Jadarian Price, RB, Seahawks
Rookie stats prediction: 150 carries, 767 rushing yards, seven touchdowns (5.1 ypc)
Jadarian Price comes into Seattle as a replacement for Kenneth Walker III, but he will be splitting carries with Zach Charbonnet and the Seahawks’ backfield. Charbonnet is coming off a torn ACL, but should return to play at some point in 2026.
More NFL from Sports Illustrated
- Ravens Coach Had Message for Diego Pavia, UDFAs at Start of Rookie Minicamp
- Fernando Mendoza Explains Why He Might Not Join Indiana on White House Visit
- Todd Monken Addresses Reports on Browns’ QB Battle Between Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders
- One Visit With Jets Later, Russell Wilson Is Considering Retirement
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Projecting Stats for Every 2026 First-Round Draft Pick During Their Rookie Season.
