If no measures were taken against the coronavirus, Japan could see about 850,000 severe cases of infection, of which about half, or 400,000 people, could die, Hokkaido University Prof. Hiroshi Nishiura said Wednesday.
A theoretical epidemiologist, Nishiura serves on a cluster response team for the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry.
He and his colleagues assumed that each infected person would infect 2.5 others, a rate that has been observed in Europe. They estimated there would be about 200,000 severe cases among people aged 15 to 64, and about 650,000 among those aged 65 and older.
Many severe cases require ventilators and other such treatment methods.
Their estimate represents the worst-case scenario. The calculations did not take into account the countermeasures currently in place, but Nishiura decided to publish the findings to spread the word about how dangerous the new coronavirus is.
The government has said that for the state of emergency to end after one month, it wants to reduce person-to-person contact by at least 70 percent, and if possible by 80 percent.
Nishiura, who has made calculations illustrating why an 80-percent reduction is advisable, said the reduction goal has not been met.
"We're at a stage where we must actively try to avoid contact. It's abnormal that people are going to work as usual. I'm worried," he said.
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