The European Rugby Champions Cup reaches its quarter-final stage this weekend, having become an Anglo-French affair. Five Premiership clubs and three sides from the Top 14 make up the last eight with the Pro12 left to focus on domestic matters.
It was the outcome feared by many in the Pro12 when the European Cup was shaken up to make it more meritocratic and run by clubs rather than unions. Even without the change in the way money from the Champions and Challenge Cups is distributed has changed, it has not so far benefited the French and English because income levels have yet to rise appreciably, not that they are feeling any pinch.
The Premiership and the Top 14 are richer competitions by far than the Pro12. Sources have raised fears with the Guardian that the competition may have to look for a new broadcaster from the end of next season because of poor viewing figures although Sky Sports insists there are no plans to cut short a four-year contract that runs until the summer of 2018.
The answer for the Pro12 has to come from within, starting with growing a tournament that is played in four unions but only attracts crowds to compare with England and France in one, Ireland. There was a round of six matches at the end of February, played in Wales, Scotland and Italy, that generated an average gate of 3,688 – pretty much what London Welsh were getting in the Premiership last season.
The Pro12 final will be held at Murrayfield next month. Scottish Rugby wrote on its website this week: “A crowd in excess of last year’s Belfast final is expected at BT Murrayfield, with thousands of tickets due to be sold as the season reaches its finale.” As 17,057 spectators watched Glasgow defeat Munster at the Kingspan Stadium then the aim appears to be modest when 80,000 supporters will be at the English and French finals.
One reason the English and French clubs announced they would not play in European competitions unless the old European Rugby Cup Ltd was replaced was that they were no longer prepared to carry on subsidising the Pro12 sides: income was then distributed on a union basis, split six ways before a merit element kicked in; now it is divided equally between the three leagues that feed the tournaments with the Pro12 protected should turnover not reach a certain level.
The Pro12 unions fought against that move for a couple of years, so it was interesting to hear the Six Nations say last week, in response to calls for Georgia and Romania to be given access to the tournament in time, that it was not in the business of looking after others. When the cap fits …
Munster, Leinster and Ulster are likely to be contenders for the quarter-finals next season but where the Pro12 used to serve them well, able to rest players in between derby matches and Ireland internationals, it is now making them less battle-hardened. As the game in England has evolved, with clubs able to afford stronger, larger squads and thereby rotate players more together with an overall rise in the standard of play in the Premiership that has produced some notable matches this season, so the advantage the Irish once had has become a handicap.
They could do with a Welsh revival. The four regions may have settled their dispute with the Welsh Rugby Union but their top-placed team in the Pro12, the Scarlets, this week posted a loss of nearly £1m for the last financial year, with the auditors reporting: “There can be no real certainty with ongoing cash flows.” Newport Gwent Dragons are restructuring, wiping out their debts and starting again under new owners.
Wales may only have one team in next season’s Champions Cup, with Cardiff Blues, Ospreys and Newport Gwent Dragons in the bottom half of the table and Italy guaranteed a place even though Treviso are currently last, with Zebre one place above them.
The Pro12 is represented in the Challenge Cup but Newport Gwent Dragons are away to Gloucester in the quarter-finals, while Connacht are at Grenoble. The winners will qualify for next season’s Champions Cup before the system for the final place in the top tournament reverts to play-offs, something that will dilute France’s already weak attitude to the competition.
No English club has won the European Cup since Wasps in 2007, when they defeated Leicester in the final. Leinster and Toulon, both three times, Munster and Toulouse have prevailed since then, but the Premiership is guaranteed one finalist, with the winners of the tie between Wasps and Exeter at the Ricoh Arena facing Saracens or Northampton in the last four.
The match in Coventry could be the first of three meetings between Exeter and Wasps in six weeks. They lie second and third in the Premiership respectively and would meet in the play-off semi-final if they remained there. It promises to be the tie of the round, with the Chiefs 41-27 winners at the Ricoh in December, although one concern for the Chiefs is that it remains their only victory on the road against a club in the top half of the table.
Wasps have so dazzled since the opening month of the season that Sunday’s 28-6 victory over Northampton with more disappointment than rapture as they struggled to put away their play-off rivals but at their free-rolling best they have the capacity to overrun anyone, even though, as a team, they are still some way off maturity.
Northampton won at Saracens in the Premiership last month but the champions, the last English team to reach the European Cup final when they lost to Toulon in 2014, will be at full-strength on Saturday evening. Their performances since their England players returned, against Exeter and Bath, have been exceptional: Owen Farrell and Alex Goode are playing reactively behind and Brad Barritt is the glue holding them together.
On Sunday, Leicester should have too much for their group opponents, Stade Français, who are sitting one place above the relegation zone in the Top 14 in the defence of their title, safe but far from comfortable. Then Racing 92 meet the three-times holders Toulon in Paris as they did in the Top 14 two weeks ago when Frédéric Michalak’s late penalty trumped Dan Carter’s try.
The last team to win the European Cup was Toulon. At the time, the death of England in Europe was being predicted but sport does not stand still.
• This is an extract taken from the Guardian’s weekly rugby union email, The Breakdown. To subscribe, just visit this page, find ‘The Breakdown’ and follow the instructions.
• This article was amended on 8 April 2016 to reflect Sky Sports’ position that it does not have any plans to pull out of the four-year Pro 12 deal at the end of next season and to clarify that the current deal runs until the end of the 2017-18 season.
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