The pro-Israel group AIPAC notched some much-needed victories on Tuesday night in Illinois, with two Democratic House candidates it backed winning their races.
Why it matters: Long a big spender in Democratic politics, AIPAC's reputation within the party's grassroots has never been worse. And yet, with some delicate maneuvering, it proved it can still use its massive campaign war-chest to devastating effect.
- The group largely disguised the millions it spent across four Illinois House races, funneling money through PACs with anodyne names like Elect Chicago Women and Chicago Progressive Partnership.
- The latter group targeted pro-Palestinian progressives by going after their leftist bona fides — essentially accusing them of being closet Republicans — and even, in one case, boosting a left-wing splinter candidate.
- "I think it's fair to say that Illinois made AIPAC the comeback kid," one centrist House Democrat told Axios.
Driving the news: Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller defeated former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. and progressive state Sen. Robert Peters in the state's 2nd congressional district.
- Miller was supported by nearly $4.5 million in ad spending from AIPAC-affiliated group Affordable Chicago Now, according to AdImpact.
- Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) gave up the seat to run for U.S. Senate, but lost to Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.
In the 8th congressional district, former Rep. Melissa Bean beat progressive rival Junaid Ahmed in the race to succeed Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), another unsuccessful Senate candidate.
- Elect Chicago Women spent $3.3 million in support of Bean while Chicago Progressive Partnership spent another $700,000 painting Ahmed as a wealthy ally of Elon Musk and fossil fuel interests.
- Bean was also supported by ads from Crypto and AI PACs, which — similar to AIPAC's ads — portrayed the centrist ex-lawmaker as a progressive fighter and staunch foe of ICE.
Zoom out: This is a significant reversal of fortunes for AIPAC, which suffered an embarrassing defeat in the special election to fill New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill's seat in the House.
- AIPAC spent more than $2 million attacking former Rep. Tom Malinowski, a liberal Zionist, in support of their candidate, Tahesha Way. That cleared room for Analilia Mejía, a more decisively progressive, pro-Palestinian candidate, to win.
- The group suffered a similar loss last cycle with the election of Rep. Dave Min (D-Calif.), who it spent millions opposing.
- Other lawmakers AIPAC supported that cycle, including Reps. Maxine Dexter (D-Ore.) and Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.), have since broken decisively with them on Israel.
Yes, but: AIPAC fell short in the closely watched race to replace retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) in the 9th district.
- It backed staunchly pro-Israel state Sen. Laura Fine, who came in third behind left-wing influencer Kat Abughazaleh and progressive Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss.
- The group spent millions going after Biss at first, but pivoted in the final stretch of the campaign to going primarily after Abughazaleh with ads suggesting she secretly holds right-wing views and boosting a lower tier progressive candidate, Bushra Amiwala.
They failed to get their candidate in the 7th district, where Illinois state Rep. La Shawn Ford defeated AIPAC-backed Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin.
- This was the one race where AIPAC spent through its known super PAC, United Democracy Project, which ran nearly $5 million in ads in support of Conyears-Ervin.
- Ford was backed by retiring Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.).
The intrigue: AIPAC is trying to frame the results in the best possible light, praising Stratton's victory, for instance, despite not spending heavily in support of her.
- AIPAC also tried to reframe several other races in its favor by celebrating the loss of movement leftist candidates like Abughazaleh to more mainstream progressives like Biss.
The bottom line: Some progressives scoffed at that, with one senior House progressive stressing to Axios that "AIPAC wanted Daniel Biss to lose. They spent heavily against" him.
- "It seems their spending harmed their candidate because it's so toxic in this politically active district," the lawmaker added, noting Biss was endorsed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus.
- AIPAC's use of progressive talking points to boost their candidates and sink others, this House Democrat said, just "shows that progressive messaging works."
Editor's note: This article has been corrected to show La Shawn Ford is an Illinois state representative (not a former Chicago city council member).
