Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock may be dragging in 2025, but JPMorgan is doubling down on what it calls the company's "best idea": Prime.
Despite being down 3% year-to-date, analyst Doug Anmuth sees upside to $240 — a roughly 13% climb from current levels. The core driver is, surprisingly, the same $139 subscription many Americans barely think about after checkout.
$139 In, $1,430 Out — The Prime Value Bomb
JPMorgan's deep dive estimates the true annual value of a U.S. Prime subscription is now $1,430 — more than 10x the cost. "That's a 6% jump from 2024 and more than double the value in 2016," says Anmuth. The report suggests Amazon is delivering the fastest fulfillment speeds in company history, with over 9 billion same-day/one-day deliveries in 2024 alone.
And it's not just about shipping anymore. Prime now comes bundled with Grubhub+, grocery delivery, Prime Video (NFL, NBA, NASCAR), music, photo storage, and more. If Apple One is bundling basics, Amazon's bundling the entire mall.
A Price Hike Is Coming — And That's Bullish
JPMorgan expects a Prime price increase in 2026, consistent with Amazon's every-four-years cadence. But here's the kicker: no major churn expected. Anmuth estimates that even a modest $20 hike could generate $3 billion in incremental annual sales.
Despite competition from Walmart Inc‘s (NYSE:WMT) Walmart+, Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST) and Apple Inc‘s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Apple One, Anmuth believes Prime still leads the value race. With Prime members nearing 350 million globally by 2025, and international penetration still low, there's plenty of room for subscriber growth too.
So while Amazon's stock may be taking a breather, its subscription flywheel is spinning harder than ever. As JPMorgan puts it, "Prime remains the best deal in shopping"—and maybe in investing too.
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