The 2019-20 NBA regular season is now underway, and the Rockets will officially launch their new campaign Thursday by hosting the Milwaukee Bucks at 7:00 p.m. local time within the friendly confines of Houston’s Toyota Center.
With a new organizational slogan of “One Mission,” the Rockets enter the year with a very high sense of urgency to win the franchise’s NBA title since the 1994-95 season.
After the bold offseason trade of Chris Paul (and draft considerations) for Russell Westbrook, the Rockets now have the 2017 and 2018 NBA Most Valuable Player (MVP) winners in Westbrook and James Harden. With both future Hall of Famers now 30 years old and still searching for their first NBA title, they’re both keenly aware that their prime window could start to close in the years ahead.
In fact, year one of the latest Westbrook-Harden partnership (they first played together from 2009 through 2012 in Oklahoma City) could be their best opportunity of all, since both guards still appear to have most or all of their peak athleticism. And the Golden State Warriors, who have knocked Houston out of the playoffs for two straight years, are no longer seen as a significant roadblock after the departure of former MVP Kevin Durant in free agency and the probable season-ending injury to five-time All-Star Klay Thompson.
Can the Rockets take advantage of the opening, and will Harden and Westbrook finally get over the hump? Here are five bold predictions and key storylines to watch during the 2019-20 season, as it pertains to the Rockets and their championship aspirations.
1.) James Harden averages fewer points but gets more MVP votes.
Harden had other-worldly efficiency in the preseason, scoring 31.2 points and dishing out 9.0 assists in just 28.9 minutes per game. That’s even better than the astounding numbers he put up in the 2018-19 regular season, when Harden averaged a career-high 36.1 points in 36.8 minutes per game, along with 7.5 assists and 6.6 rebounds.
With that said, the smart money is still on Harden’s scoring to go down from last season’s historic levels. The efficiency might go up, but Harden’s 36.1 points came on 24.5 shots per game. That was well above his average of 20.1 shots the prior season, and had a lot to do with extensive injuries to Paul, Eric Gordon, Clint Capela, and more. And this preseason, Westbrook missed two of the six games entirely and left a third early due to injury. When he did play, Westbrook was on a slight minutes restriction as the Rockets tried to ease him back into the lineup after missing some drills and activities early in training camp following an offseason knee scope.
Unlike Paul, who missed close to 25 games in each of the past two seasons, Westbrook hasn’t missed even 10 games in one year over the last four NBA seasons. Assuming his usual durability holds up, the reality is that Westbrook will take shot attempts from Harden in a way that Paul did not. In four of Westbrook’s last five seasons, he’s averaged more than 20 shots per game. By contrast, even in the games he played, Paul averaged just 13.8 and 12.4 shot attempts per game with the Rockets.
However, Westbrook’s higher usage could still benefit Harden in multiple ways. For starters, lowering Harden’s workload over the grind of an 82-game regular season might keep the 2018 MVP fresher for next spring’s postseason run. That “fresh” factor could also make him more efficient and help the Rockets win more games, which might make Harden a bigger MVP threat in 2020 — even if his raw numbers go down. For an efficiency comparison, Harden shot 46.4% overall and 39.4% on three-pointers in the preseason, up from 44.2% and 36.8%, respectively, last season.
Despite the historic nature of Harden’s scoring binge last season, the voting totals show he was closer to winning MVP in 2017 (when he finished second to Westbrook) and in 2018 (when he did win) than he was in finishing second to Giannis Antetokounmpo in 2019.
What changed? Primarily, it was team performance relative to expectations. Before 2018-19, Houston was largely seen as a title contender, but they fell from a 65-17 mark and the West’s No. 1 seed the prior year to 53-29 and the No. 4. That created a headwind that even Harden’s historic numbers couldn’t overcome. By contrast, the 2017-18 Rockets largely overachieved their projections, going from 55-27 and the No. 3 seed the prior year to a league-best mark of 65-17 and the No. 1. The same story occurred a year earlier, as the Rockets improved from 41-41 and a No. 8 seed to 55-27 and the No. 3.
With a lower baseline for expectations and a muddled Western Conference, a strong year from the Rockets as a team could boost Harden’s MVP chances — even if his individual numbers go down. Whether that’s enough to win the award will depend on other players and narratives elsewhere around the league.
2.) The Rockets will often go as their defense goes.
When the Rockets went 65-17 two seasons ago — the best record in franchise history and in the entire NBA that year — they had the NBA’s No. 6 overall defense. Last season, they slipped to 53-29, with the league’s No. 18 defense. Rebounding was a big factor, with Houston falling from No. 13 overall in team rebounding rate in 2017-18 to No. 27 in the 2018-19 season. Head coach Mike D’Antoni cited the starting lineup replacement of 6-foot-8 Trevor Ariza (who left in July 2018 free agency) with 6-foot-3 Eric Gordon at the small forward position as one key reason for the decline.
Whatever the reason, the reality is this: With D’Antoni and Harden, the Rockets have always been elite on offense. The key variable in terms of whether they’re truly a title contender has always been whether the defense offsets many of their advantages on offense.
With the Rockets stressing a faster pace on offense this season to help integrate Westbrook, transition defense will be vital. Westbrook has averaged double-figure rebounds in each of the past three seasons, and 6-foot-6 Danuel House Jr. appears set to start over Gordon at small forward, which should make them longer and more athletic. Gordon will then return to his former sixth-man role, from which he won the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year Award with the Rockets in the 2016-17 season. So if rebounding was truly the biggest problem last year, there’s reason for optimism this year. But expect the faster pace to test them in transition, especially early on.
3.) Danuel House Jr. holds the starting small forward spot.
Due to the previously stated reasons of wing defense, length, and rebounding, House will begin the season as the starter at small forward over Gordon. The athletic 26-year-old averaged 9.4 points (41.6% on three-pointers) in 25.1 minutes per game last season.
But in 12 starts with the Rockets from Dec. 22 through Jan. 14 last season, House really found his groove with an average of 10.6 points and 4.3 rebounds in 29.4 minutes per game on a blistering 48.1% mark from behind the three-point arc. The Rockets won nine of those 12 games, even with Chris Paul missing all of them due to injury.
House wasn’t a major contributor for the Rockets in the playoffs, but there were some extenuating circumstances. For starters, after that 12-game stretch, House was away from the team for approximately two months while embroiled in a contract dispute. After he returned in mid-March, it was tough for the team to re-integrate House on the fly with the Rockets in the middle of a playoff push. Additionally, House suffered a toe injury in the postseason.
This season, House enters the season healthy and with a complete training camp and preseason with the team to build chemistry. He’s a fixture in Houston’s starting lineup and has confidence and security resulting from a three-year contract awarded to him in the offseason. If his 12 games as a starter last December and January are any indication, expect House to seize the opportunity and keep the job on a more permanent basis.
4.) Daryl Morey adds at least one rotation piece by trade or buyout.
Under the leadership of GM Daryl Morey, the Rockets are notoriously active each February as the NBA’s annual trade deadline and unofficial buyout season commences. Last season, the headliner was the addition of defensive wing Iman Shumpert (and luxury tax savings!) via trade. Two years ago, it was the buyout signings of veterans Joe Johnson and Brandan Wright. At the 2016-17 deadline, Morey dealt Corey Brewer and a first-round draft pick for dynamic scorer Lou Williams, then with the Los Angeles Lakers.
This year, it’s too early to tell what the exact need will be. But it’s very unlikely that the Rockets roster will be complete by February. They could need more wing defense, if House doesn’t take advantage of his opportunity at small forward. That’s why Houston was linked to disgruntled Memphis veteran Andre Iguodala earlier this offseason, and he remains a potential candidate.
But even if House shores up the wing defense and Westbrook boosts the team’s rebounding, as many expect, the Rockets could still use more size up front. Houston’s starter at power forward is P.J. Tucker, who is just 6-foot-5 and now 34 years old, and his main backup is 6-foot-6 Thabo Sefolosha — a 35-year-old veteran who has spent most of his long career at the wing positions. While they’re confident in 25-year-old Clint Capela, his backup is 37-year-old Tyson Chandler, who is entering his 19th NBA season. Behind the top backups, Isaiah Hartenstein and Gary Clark remain young and quite unproven.
Outside of Capela, the Rockets’ established options up front are older players, undersized for their position, or both. As such, the smart money is on Morey targeting a longer and more explosive player to provide frontcourt depth at one or both positions. The Rockets have routinely traded their late first-round picks in recent years to fortify depth, and their 2020 1st is eligible to be dealt this season.
5.) The Russell Westbrook trade can’t be judged until the postseason.
When the Rockets traded two years ago for Chris Paul, his superior shooting allowed him to gradually ease into a role alongside Harden. By contrast, it could be a more abrupt and rougher transition for Westbrook. He and Harden were the league’s two highest-usage players a season ago, and now they’ll have to co-exist in the same backcourt. They’ve done it in the past in Oklahoma City, but that was when Harden was a sixth man and not the dominant scorer that Morey believes is better than Michael Jordan (as a scorer).
Harden is certainly a good enough shooter to play off the ball with Westbrook, but then there’s the matter of whether it’s a smart move to take the ball out of the hands of the league’s best offensive player. As such, one of D’Antoni’s priorities in training camp has been developing late-game sets to maximize their strengths together. That probably means Harden has the ball in his hands more often, since he’s clearly the more efficient player in half-court settings.
In turn, that will require Westbrook to provide value off the ball in order for Houston to reach its maximum potential. For a player that has shot below 30% on three-pointers in four of his last five seasons, it’s not as if the Rockets can simply slide Westbrook into a corner and let him space the floor for Harden, as Paul did early in his Rockets’ tenure and again last season, once his athleticism started to fade.
Westbrook will need to show a willingness to cut and move away from the ball, and set picks for Harden and perhaps even serve as a roll man. Harden will also have to get used to finding Westbrook on the court when he does those things, which are quite different than what Paul did a year ago. To this point, the 2017 and 2018 MVPs have repeatedly said they’re willing to modify their games. In Westbrook’s case, indications from his media availabilities and limited preseason games are that his heart is in the right place, and that he’s already changing his game slightly to mesh with Harden and the Rockets.
But words are one thing. Actions are another. Westbrook will turn 31 years old next month, and he’s entering his 12th NBA season. It’s unlikely that such a dramatic change will come easily. He did show a willingness to defer to Paul George last season with the Thunder, which is encouraging. But Harden’s recent usage in Houston is on another level entirely. Are the two 30-year-old guards determined enough to win a championship to make all the necessary sacrifices? That’s the obvious question hanging over the 2019-20 Rockets.
It’s not that Westbrook won’t provide immediate value, as is. He’ll be a big boost to Houston’s rebounding, pace, and transition play, and there will be about 12 minutes per game that Harden sits and Westbrook runs the offense as the primary playmaker. In that time, Westbrook can operate similarly to way he always has. Unlike Paul, he should be athletic enough to routinely beat his man off the dribble, which could create more lob opportunities. There’s also the theory that lowering Westbrook’s usage might free up more energy for him to lock in on defense, where former teammate and NBA coach Earl Watson believes Westbrook can still be a First Team NBA All-Defense defender. At a bare minimum, history tells us Westbrook should offer a durability upgrade over the 34-year-old Paul.
But for the two former MVPs to co-exist at a championship level at this stage of their careers, it’s unlikely for the transition to be seamless — particularly on offense and especially as it pertains to “winning time” late in close games. At times, the Rockets may have to resist the temptation of having Harden perform a solo rescue act to survive in a given game, with an eye on the larger goal of winning a title next June. That objective will likely require a continued focus on Westbrook’s involvement and learning how to best utilize his skillset within the confines of the usual D’Antoni and Harden-led offense. Judging by the preseason, it’s still very much a work in progress.
Assuming relatively good health, the Rockets probably have enough talent between Harden, Westbrook, Gordon, Capela, and others to hover near the top of the West all season long. Having two former MVPs, a double-double machine in the paint, and a long list of role players who can shoot and defend should be enough to win far more games than they lose over the 82-game grind of a regular season.
But to win a championship in the format of multiple best-of-seven postseason series versus talented rivals like the Los Angeles Clippers with George and Kawhi Leonard and the Lakers with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, talent alone is unlikely to do the job. It’ll have to be a combination of talent, fit, and chemistry. The key for Harden, Westbrook, and the Rockets will be steady collaborative growth, rather than just piling up regular-season wins — with a goal of having the best version of themselves in April, rather than October.
Bold prediction: The Rockets go 56-26 over the regular season to gain West’s No. 2 seed, with a strong close in March and April. They defeat the top-seeded Clippers in the Western Conference Finals in six games and the Philadelphia 76ers in the NBA Finals in seven games. Harden again finishes a close second in regular-season MVP voting, but he finally earns the bigger prize — an NBA Finals MVP award, and the championship ring that comes with it.
Rockets legend Hakeem Olajuwon entered the 1993-94 season at 30 years old and without a ring, and that year ended with his first championship. Harden is 30 entering the 2019-20 season, and he and these Rockets have a golden opportunity to replicate that timeline.
