Preview 2019: Previewing and looking ahead to the SMU Mustang season with what you need to know.
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– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Schedule Analysis
– SMU Previews 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2018 Record: 5-7 overall, 4-4 in AAC
Head Coach: Sonny Dykes, 2nd year, 5-8
– CFN Preview 2019: All The Team Previews
5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE SMU OFFENSE
– The offense didn’t quite crank it up in the first year under Sonny Dykes. The passing game did its part putting up 271 yards per game, but the scoring wasn’t there in key games – really, SMU, 24 in the bowl-or-go-home loss to Tulsa? – but it wasn’t as explosive an attack as it needed to be. That’s about to change.
– Starting QB Ben Hicks left to be an Arkansas Razorback, and the Mustangs might have just upgraded with the arrival of Shane Buechele from Texas. He’ll have to battle a bit to assure his spot with 6-4, 220-pound sophomore William Brown one of a group of big passers who’ll get the opportunity. Helping the cause …
– The receivers are there to be fantastic. 93-catch all-star James Proche is back to be the No. 1 target on the outside, and he’s not alone with 52-catch former West Virginia Mountaineer Reggie Roberson a nice playmaker on the inside. With speedy former Notre Damer CJ Sanders in the mix, too, along with a solid group of tight ends, the Mustangs are loaded.
– The running game was mostly along for the ride – finishing dead last in the AAC on the ground with 115 yards per game – and now top rusher Braeden West is gone. There’s talent, though, with the senior combination of Ke’Mon Freeman and Xavier Jones good enough to handle the workload, and redshirt freshman TaMerik Williams will find his way in the rotation.
– The line struggled way too much in pass protection, but that’s partly because it was really, really young. Four underclassmen were starting by the end of the season, and now is when the payoff has to kick in. There’s not a lot of size, but 300-pounders Beau Morris at tackle and Alan Ali at guard are back on the left side, and 290-pound Hayden Howerton returns at center. There’s decent depth and backup options, too.
NEXT: What You Need To Know About the Defense, Top Players, Keys to the Season, What Will Happen
4. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE SMU DEFENSE
– The defense wasn’t a total disaster, but it couldn’t get off the field on key downs and struggled way too much against the run. However, ten of the top 11 tacklers and nine starters are back.
– The pass rush was just okay, but the D did a nice job of getting behind the line. That came from the linebacking corps that loses leading playmaker Kyran Mitchell, but gets back leading tackler and former Texas A&M Aggie Richard Moore in the middle.
Smallish on the outside, 205-pound former Illinois transfer Patrick Nelson is more like a safety playing linebacker – coming up with 65 stops – and 225-pound junior Trevor Denbow is able to work at safety or outside linebacker. Shane Hailey is a smallish, quick 215-pounder for the other outside spot.
– The line is deep, but it has to be stronger against the run. Senior Delontae Scott was one of the team’s leading pass rushers with 260-pound size and good quickness on the outside, and the tackles are in place with 300-pound former JUCO transfer Pono Davis and 285-pound senior Demerick Gary on the inside. More than last year, there’s enough depth to play around with the rotation.
– The secondary has to come up with more big plays, but the veterans are there starting with senior Rodney Clemons at safety after making 72 stops, and with senior Robert Hayes back at one corner spot. The JUCO transfers will play a big role throughout the defensive back rotation getting Sam Westfall in this year’s class for a corner job, and with the coaching staff playing around with the safety situation – Patrick Nelson can work as an outside linebacker or at safety.
NEXT: Top Players, Keys To the Season, What Will Happen
3. TOP SMU PLAYERS
Best SMU Offensive Player
WR James Proche, Sr.
The 5-11, 190-pound senior exploded with a First Team All-AAC run catching 93 passes for 1,199 yards and 12 scores scores. Fast, consistent, and quick on the outside, he roared down the stretch with 23 catches for 317 yards and three scores in the last two games, and with four games overall with 11 grabs or more. He’s a true No. 1 target who could’ve left early for the NFL, but is back and is in the mix for the Biletnikoff.
2. QB Shane Buechele, Sr.
3. WR Reggie Roberson, Jr.
4. RB Xavier Jones, Sr.
5. C Hayden Howerton, Jr.
Best SMU Defensive Player
LB Richard Moore, Sr.
At 6-0 and 230 pounds, he’s a big body on the inside of the linebacking corps who led the team with 92 tackles after transferring over from Texas A&M. Not just a big hitter against the run, Moore is a good pass rusher, too, coming up with five sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss. Once he got comfortable, he came on late in the season closing out with four straight double-digit tackling performances with 45 stops in the last month.
2. S Rodney Clemons, Sr.
3. DE Delontae Scott, Sr.
4. S/LB Patrick Nelson, Sr.
5. DT Pono Davis, Sr.
NEXT: Keys to the Season, Prediction & What Will Happen
2. KEYS TO THE SEASON
Biggest Key To The SMU Offense
Start to move the ball on third downs. The SMU offense under head coach Sonny Dykes is designed to set up makable third and short plays, and last year that didn’t happen.
In 2017, SMU was able to convert 43% of its third down tries and went bowling. Last season, it was dead last in the AAC and 119th in the nation converting just 33% of the time.
The O only hit the 40% mark or more three times – and won all three games. SMU will never dominate the time of possession battle, but the defense needs more of a break, and the O has to keep things moving after not gaining enough third down plays. That should all happen with the skill spots all stronger. And then, if the offense does its job, then …
Biggest Key To The SMU Defense
Start to come up with a few third down stops. The pass rush was able to do its part more often than not to generate pressure, but it didn’t translate into enough big defensive stops. The D was able to come up with takeaways, but it got hit way too hard against decent scoring teams because it couldn’t get of the field.
The Mustangs allowed 40 points or more five times and went 1-4, and that’s partly because the defense was so miserable when it came to the money downs.
How bad was it? SMU allowed teams to convert 40% of the time or more in 11 of the 12 games, and failed 50% of the time or more five times including in each of the last three games.
Key Player To A Successful Season
QB Shane Buechele, Sr.
He might not have the next-level tools, and he might not be all that big or have the big-time arm, but he was a good player for Texas when he got his chances after a solid freshman season.
He’s accurate, smart, and a good fighter, but he has to keep the interceptions down. It’ll be up to him to take the Sonny Dykes/offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee attack to another level. With a good group of receivers to work with, and with a nice backfield to take the pressure off, Buechele should shine.
Key Game To The SMU Season
at USF, Sept. 28
Just how good is SMU? If it is, it should be able to start out 3-0 with wins over Arkansas State, North Texas and Texas State, and it’ll probably lose at TCU. That leads up for the AAC opener at USF with a chance to make a massive early statement.
With tough conference road games ahead, win, beat Tulsa at home, and the Mustangs will make a whole lot of noise over the first half of the season. The two programs have only played four times, with USF winning the last three after SMU took the first matchup in 2013.
– SMU Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
2018 SMU Fun Stats
– 3rd Down Conversions: Opponents 94-of-196 (48%) – SMU 61-of-185 (33%)
– Average Rushing Yards Per Game: Opponents 198.4 – SMU 115.5
– Time of Possession: Opponents 32:46 – SMU 27:14
NEXT: What Will Happen
1. SMU WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
The Mustangs went into the final game of the regular season against Tulsa with a shot at bowl eligibility. It inexplicably lost to finish 5-7, and that was with a whole lot of concerns and various issues.
They couldn’t do anything on either side of the ball on third downs, they gave up too many sacks, they couldn’t control the clock, and special teams were just okay, and the defense failed time and again. This time around, being just a little bit sharper will make the difference in a winning campaign.
Texas transfer Shane Buechele is a solid veteran quarterback who should be terrific with James Proche and one of the AAC’s best receiving corps to work with.
The running backs are good, the line – as mediocre as it might be – is at least experienced, and there are more options and veterans to work with on the defensive side.
Which means there’s a chance this is way low …
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 7
The first part of the season might be trickier than it seems. Going to Arkansas State isn’t a peach, and dealing with North Texas will be a shootout. But if the Mustangs are really that much better, they get through those two without a problem, and they take out Texas State before going to TCU.
They’ll lose to the Horned Frogs, and they’ll lose two of the three conference road games against USF, Houston and Memphis.
There will be one clunker when the machine doesn’t work – maybe late in the year against East Carolina – and one other loss along the way to be annoying, but it will still be a good enough campaign to get to seven wins and a bowl game for the second time in seven years.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Schedule Analysis
