Preview 2019: Previewing and looking ahead to the Penn State season with what you need to know.
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– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
– Penn State Previews 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2018 Record: 9-4 overall, 6-3 in the Big Ten
Head Coach: James Franklin, 6th year, 45-21
5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE PENN STATE OFFENSE
– Even with six starters gone, the offense has to be better at keeping things moving. The third down conversions weren’t there, which is part of the reason why Penn State was last in the Big Ten in time of possession, and it all contributed to the scoring being way too inconsistent. The Nittany Lions scored 222 points in the first four games, and 219 in the final nine.
– It’s not like Tommy Stevens was expected to be the next Tom Brady, but it seemed like the quarterback succession plan was in place with Trace McSorley done and his backup ready to take over. But Stevens pulled off a shocker and chose to transfer, and while it would’ve been nice to have landed Georgia transfer-turned-Ohio State-starter Justin Fields, now it’s up to sophomore Sean Clifford – most likely – to be the new star of the show after a nice offseason. Fortunately for him and the offense …
– The receiving corps will be fine with a little bit of time. Third-leading receiver Juwan Johnson chose to take off for Oregon, but KJ Hamler is back after leading the way with 42 catches and averaging 18 yards per catch, and TE Pat Freiermuth returns after making 26 catches with a team-high eight scores.
It’s a youth movement overall – but a talented one – to go along with the addition of Florida State grad transfer George Campbell to piece together a group that should at least match the production of last year’s corps.
– So who’s the next star running back? Miles Sanders wasn’t Saquon Barkley, but he managed to run for 1,274 yards and nine scores before leaving to become a Philadelphia Eagle. Former star recruit Ricky Slade is a home run hitter who averaged 5.7 yards per carry with six scores – it’s his turn now. True freshmen Devyn Ford and Noah Cain might need a little time, but both are too good to keep out of the rotation.
– The line lost OT Ryan Bates and OG Connor McGovern off of the right side to the NFL, but three starters are back and there’s enough overall versatility to play around with the lineup. The line won’t be the big problem is was not all that long ago, but the pass protection has to be far better.
NEXT: What You Need To Know About the Defense, Top Players, Keys to the Season, What Will Happen
4. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE PENN STATE DEFENSE
– It might not have been the brick wall the 2017, but it was still strong enough to allow ten points or fewer in five games, lead the nation in sacks, and finish fourth in tackles for loss.
Shareef Miller and Robert Windsor are gone after combining for 15 sacks, but leading sacker Yetur Gross-Matos is back at one end after coming up with eight, and senior Shaka Toney will be turned loose after coming up with five. The ends are good, veteran Robert Windsor and sophomore PJ Mustipher, and the pressure will come from all four spots.
– Micah Parsons is already one of the best young linebackers in college football, and he’s about to do a whole lot more after coming up with a team-high 83 tackles despite working in a rotation. Cam Brown is a good tackler on the outside, and veteran Jan Johnson returns after making 72 stops. The corps can get into the backfield, but it’ll mainly be in charge of swarming around the ball and getting the run defense back on track.
– Yeah, the pass defense was terrific, but ie’s partly because no one in the final four games after the Michigan loss could throw a forward pass. The overall depth is lacking, but the starting four in the secondary should be good again after allowing fewer than six yards per attempt and 14 scores with 13 picks was terrific.
CB John Reid was good despite missing a year with a knee injury, and the safety combination of Garrett Taylor and Nick Scott returns after combining for 136 stops.
NEXT: Top Players, Keys To the Season, What Will Happen
3. TOP PENN STATE PLAYERS
Best Penn State Offensive Player
RB Ricky Slade, Soph.
He only ran for 257 yards, but he tore off 5.7 yards per carry and six touchdowns. There were fumbling issues, but he also showed off the home run hitting burst that made him one of nation’s top recruits in 2018.
The 5-9, 203-pounder has the skill, quickness, and vision to be the next great Penn State running back, and he’s about to get his shot. Be shocked if he doesn’t at least match the over 1,200 yards and nine scores from Miles Sanders last season.
2. WR KJ Hamler, Jr.
3. TE Pat Freiermuth, Soph.
4. OG Steven Gonzalez, Sr.
5. QB Sean Clifford, Jr.
Best Penn State Defensive Player
DE Yetur Gross-Matos, Jr.
The best defensive player could easily and quickly become Micah Parsons – no beef if you want to put him here – but Gross-Matos is the tone-setting pass rusher for the nation’s leading sacking defense.
The 6-5, 265-pounder came up with eight sacks, 20 tackles for loss, and 54 stops in his All-Big Ten season. He’ll be the focus of every blocking scheme, but he has a good group of veterans next to him up front.
2. LB Micah Parsons, Soph.
3. CB John Reid, Sr.
4. S Garrett Taylor, Sr.
5. DT Robert Windsor, Sr.
NEXT: Keys to the Season, Prediction & What Will Happen
2. KEYS TO THE SEASON
Biggest Key To The Penn State Offense
Fumbles … stop doing that. Okay, so pass protection is a bigger deal after giving up 29, but there were way too many turnovers. The Nittany Lions lost 13 fumbles in all – most in the Big Ten – and at least one in each of the last ten games, but were often times saved by a defense that did a decent job of taking the ball away.
How bad was the fumbling issue? Penn State lost three in 2017 when Mr. Barkley was the main man in the backfield, and lost just eight in 23 games before the problems kicked in.
Biggest Key To The Penn State Defense
Crank up the toughness against the better running teams. It’s statistically inexcusable to lead the nation in sacks, generate 107 tackles for loss, and still get hammered for almost 2,200 rushing yards.
The run D wasn’t that bad, and it should be stronger with the experience and talent on the front seven, but it still allowed over 200 yards five times. The 2017 defense gave up two bills just once – in the tough loss to Ohio State – and going back to when the defense turned it on midway through 2016, it allowed 200 just twice over a span of 23 games.
Key Player To A Successful Season
QB Sean Clifford, Soph.
The 6-2, 218-pounder was a nice get for the program in 2017, but he wasn’t in the same world as Justin Fields, or Jalen Hurts, or a slew of other options in the transfer portal. But with Tommy Stevens bolting after Clifford’s outstanding spring, now the spotlight is on.
Trace McSorley was a gamer’s gamer, but he was also wildly inconsistent and too inaccurate, only completing more than 60% of his passes twice last season. Clifford doesn’t have to be special, but he has a sneaky-good supporting cast to work with and a great defense to help the cause. As long as he limits the mistakes and keeps the chains moving, he’ll be doing his job.
Key Game To The Penn State Season
Michigan, Oct. 19
The Nittany Lions have managed to pull off some massive wins under James Franklin, and they’ll be good enough this season to beat anyone on the slate, but considering the road games at Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, and yeah, throw in Minnesota to deal with, owning Happy Valley is a must.
After getting roasted by the Wolverines 42-7 last season, and with three of the next four games on the road – including the dates with the Spartans and the Buckeyes – lose again to Big Blue, and the East title hopes take a massive hit.
– Penn State Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
2018 Penn State Fun Stats
– Red Zone Scoring: Penn State 52-of-58 (90%) – Opponents 27-of-36 (75%)
– Penalties: Opponents 97 for 874 yards – Penn State 61 for 551 yards
– Penn State 3rd Quarter Scoring: 87 – 4th Quarter Scoring 158
NEXT: What Will Happen
1. PENN STATE WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
There’s a whole bunch of talent, and there are enough good parts to be fantastic, but there’s also a lot of loose ends that need to be tied up.
Can Sean Clifford really handle the starting quarterback gig now that the pressure is on?
Can RB Ricky Slade really be consistent and explosive, and can the offensive line tighten up in pass protection and thump away for the ground attack?
Can the blocking on special teams improve in a big, big way? Can the fumbles slow down, and can the team as a whole be more consistent?
James Franklin has done a wonderful job – winning 31 games in three seasons – but he has to put this interesting talent puzzle together, and his program is still in the Big Ten East.
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 9
Idaho, Buffalo, Pitt, at Maryland – after getting a week off to prepare – Purdue. If Penn State is worth even being in the conversation for the Big Ten title, it has to start out 5-0, even with all of the different concerns that have to be dealt with.
Fortunately, there are enough light and bouncy games to sharpen up for when the season starts on October 12th.
The Nittany Lions have to go to Iowa, then deal with Michigan, then go to Michigan State. There’s no Wisconsin, Northwestern or Nebraska from the West to face, but the road game at Minnesota won’t be a peach – even with a week off to prepare – and there’s still that date at Ohio State looming.
Figure Penn State wins one of those nasty East games against either MSU or OSU, drops the date against Michigan, loses one game it really, really shouldn’t – watch out for letdown time against Indiana – and ends up with a nine-win regular season, with a shot at ten in the bowl game.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
