Preview 2019: Previewing and looking ahead to the Oregon Ducks season with what you need to know.
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– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
– Oregon Previews 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2018 Record: 9-4 overall, 5-4
Head Coach: Mario Cristobal, 2nd year, 9-5
5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE OREGON OFFENSE
– It wasn’t the warp speed attack of previous versions of Oregon, but it was still a good O averaging 427 yards and 35 points per game. But now the dominance has to come with almost everyone back and with more talent on the way. The offense was going to be good no matter what, and then …
– Justin Herbert came back for his senior year. His decision to return was the moment that took the expectations to a whole other level, considering he would’ve almost certainly been a New York Giant this football season had he taken off. Now he has to take his game up a few notches.
The size, athleticism and arm are all there, and he was able to limit the interceptions with just eight, but he only completed 59% of his passes. He’s a potential franchise pro passer, and there’s no excuse not to play like it every week considering everything else is in place.
– The line that was good enough in pass protection and got stronger as the season returns all five starters, good depth, and four all-stars including Second Team All-Pac-12 left guard Shane Lemieux.
Job One is to keep Herbert in one piece, and blasting away for the 1-2 rushing punch of sophomores CJ Verdell and Travis Dye – they combined for close to 1,800 yards and 14 scores – won’t be a problem. However, the ground game that averaged just 4.4 yards per carry needs to be over five.
– Dillon Mitchell is the one big loss from the offense. He took off early for the NFL after catching a team-high 75 passes for 1,184 yards and ten scores, but the corps got a huge boost this offseason by landing Penn State transfer Juwan Johnson.
No. 2 receiver Jaylon Redd is a smallish speedster, top tight end Jacob Breeland should be an all-star, and plenty of options are in place to make up for the loss of Mitchell.
NEXT: What You Need To Know About the Defense, Top Players, Keys to the Season, What Will Happen
4. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE OREGON DEFENSE
– The offense will always get the spotlight at Oregon because of its history and reparation, but the 2019 defense will be every bit as amazing, and potentially more talented. The Ducks are coming off an okay year, but helped by a ridiculously loaded recruiting class … look out, starting with …
– The defensive front will eventually be a killer. It needs to be better at getting behind the line, and it could be pushed around a bit, but with a little bit of time this should be a special group.
What the announcement of Justin Herbert returning for his senior season did for the offense is what the signing of No. 1 overall prospect Kayvon Thibodeaux did for the defense.
He’s not alone when it comes to an infusion of freshman talent, with end Mase Funa and tackle Keyon Ware-Hudson also future playmakers. For now, losing All-Pac-12 end Jalen Jelks hurts, but junior Jordon Scott is a stud on the nose and there are options to rotate around on the ends.
– Leading tackle Troy Dye is back at one outside linebacker job, senior La’Mar Winston is back on the other side, and three undersized options will rotate around in the middle. There are enough versatile players to work around the different formations – the Ducks will play around with the alignment more than most.
– The pass defense needs to be stronger after allowing 242 yards per game and two touchdowns or more eight times. However, the picks were there, coming up with 17 interceptions with many in bulk.
The corner combination of Deommodore Lenoir and Thomas Graham return, and star recruit Mykael Wright will doom be part of the fun. 59-tackle Nick Pickett is back at one safety gig along with five-pick sophomore Jevon Holland to a young rotation at the position.
NEXT: Top Players, Keys To the Season, What Will Happen
3. TOP OREGON PLAYERS
Best Oregon Offensive Player
QB Justin Herbert, Sr.
Really, where would he have gone if he left early for the NFL? With his prototype skill set, would he have gone Arizona with the No. 1 overall pick instead of Kyler Murray? Would Giants fans be happier if they had him instead of Daniel Jones? He would’ve been a first rounder, and next year he’ll almost certainly go after Tua Tagovailoa, but whatever … he’s an NFL talent leading the Oregon offense.
The 6-6, 233-pounder has to complete more passes after hitting just 59% of his throws, and he needs to be more consistent, but when he’s on and sharp, forget it – the offense won’t be stopped. If he plays up to his first round talent every week, look out.
2. OG Shane Lemieux, Sr.
3. RB CJ Verdell, Soph.
4. C Jake Hanson, Sr.
5. OG Calvin Throckmorton, Sr.
Best Oregon Defensive Player
LB Troy Dye, Sr.
There might be more talented – but raw – players on the defensive side of the roster, but no one will have the all-around season the 6-4, 224-pound Dye will come up with.
He’s coming off an All-Pac-12 run with a team-leading 115 tackles with two sacks and seven broken up passes, and now he’ll continue with his guided missile style to get in on everything as the leader of the rising D. There are few more athletic linebackers in the Pac-12.
2. DT Jordon Scott, Jr.
3. S Jevon Holland, Soph.
4. DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Fr.
5. S Nick Pickett, Jr.
NEXT: Keys to the Season, Prediction & What Will Happen
2. KEYS TO THE SEASON
Biggest Key To The Oregon Offense
Run the ball better, and do it every game. It’s not like Oregon did last season, but with a quarterback as good as Justin Herbert under center, it’ll be tempting to let the entire offense go through him and the passing game. However, for Oregon, when the running attack works, the team wins.
Granted, the ground game mostly ripped apart the weak and the sad, but it rolled for 260 yards on the terrific Cal run D, too. Oregon ran for over two bills in five games and won all five.
The Ducks have the star running backs who need the ball, they have an O line full of all-stars, head coach Mario Cristobal knows how to coach up an offensive front, and that Herbert guy can run, too. Consider it a total fail if the offense averages 4.4 yards per carry again.
Biggest Key To The Oregon Defense
Generate more plays behind the line. The pass defense wasn’t awful, but it was hardly a rock finishing eighth in the Pac-12 allowing 242 yards per game.
The defensive talent and speed are there to blow past the 30 sack mark – the Ducks came up with 28 last season – but it’s about generating more consistent pressure, too.
The 72 tackles for loss were too light, and that’s where the linebacking corps has to come through to help over Troy Dye. The defensive ends are going to be dangerous in the backfield from time to time, but with Justin Hollins done, it can’t just be Dye who gets behind the line.
Key Player To A Successful Season
WR Juwan Johnson, Sr.
Out of all the big transfers across the country, this one has the potential to make the biggest non-quarterback impact. The 6-5, 230-pound former Penn State Nittany Lion has NFL size and enough deep speed to stretch the field.
Dillon Mitchell caught 75 passes last season, and No. 2 man Jaylon Redd caught 38. Johnson might not be a volume target like Mitchell was, but he was able to catch 54 passes as a sophomore in Happy Valley before not getting the ball enough last year. If Johnson averages over 15 yards per catch and comes up with 50 grabs, he’ll be doing his job.
Key Game To The Oregon Season
at Stanford, Sept. 21
The horror … the horror …
It was the collapse that ended up hanging over Oregon’s head all season long. The Ducks might have been able to beat Washington, and they rolled to a nice season, but the 38-31 gack at home to the Cardinal set a bad tone. There might have been other weird performances – really, Oregon, 44-15 to Arizona? – but this was the one that hurt.
This year, a loss to Stanford to open up the Pac-12 season might be a deathblow before things get rolling. It’s a better Cardinal team that can get deep in the Pac-12 title chase with a win, and Oregon still has trips to Washington, USC and Arizona State to deal with.
On the other side, win this, and Oregon should still be able to lose to the Huskies – at least, the buffer will be there – and be okay.
– Oregon Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
2018 Oregon Fun Stats
– Field Goals: Opponents 23-of-27 – Oregon 6-of-11
– Red Zone TDs: Oregon 38-of-51 (75%) – Opponents 20-of-49 (41%)
– Opponent 1st Quarter Scoring: 53 – 2nd Quarter Scoring 103
NEXT: What Will Happen
1. OREGON WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
Clemson is the hottest program in college football right now in terms of production, recruiting, and overall coolness – being the defending national champ will do that.
Oregon obviously isn’t as accomplished as Alabama, and Miami is right there in the discussion, but when it comes to being the IT program – again, outside of that monster in South Carolina – this is the one.
It still has the cool uniform scheme thing happening, it crushed the recruiting trail in Mario Cristobal’s first full season to give it a shot, and it gets almost everyone back to make a serious run at a Pac-12 title, and maybe more.
It’s the team that checks all the boxes.
NFL quarterback, veteran offensive line, explosively athletic defensive players, talented skill parts, good kicking game, the momentum from a solid finish to last year, it’s all there. So why …
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 9
This really might be the IT team, but there’s also a prove IT factor here.
It was a good team last year, but it gagged away the game against Stanford, got destroyed by Arizona, lost to Utah and Washington State, and was just flaky enough to be able to beat Washington and Michigan State, too.
Is the talent there to beat Auburn in the opener? Absolutely. Do Pac-12 teams fare well lately in meaningful non-conference games? Not really.
The schedule is strong enough to roll out of bed with a new uniform and have a base of seven wins, but that game against the Tigers along with road dates at Stanford, Washington, USC and Arizona State don’t even take into account they other Pac-12 games to worry about.
Cal, Washington State, Arizona, and Colorado are all going to be better. The Ducks have to sweep those.
It’ll be a fun team that’s worthy of the preseason hype and a top ten ranking – if not top five. But considering the problems on the road over the last few years against the better teams, hope for ten wins and the Pac-12 title, but expect a nine-win campaign.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
