Preview 2019: Previewing and looking ahead to the North Carolina Tar Heels season with what you need to know.
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– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
– North Carolina Previews 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2018 Record: 2-9 overall, 1-7
Head Coach: Mack Brown, 1st year
– CFN Preview 2019: All The Team Previews
5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NORTH CAROLINA OFFENSE
– The offense wasn’t bad. It averaged 442 yards per game, but scoring was an issue – which is sort of the point – there weren’t enough big plays down the field, and the passing game wasn’t efficient. But the ground game was okay, and there was time to work behind a decent line.
Now it’s up to offensive coordinator Phil Longo to crank things up even more after spending the last few seasons making the Ole Miss offense amazing. But that only happens if …
– The new guy has to be amazing, and that’s not about head coach Mack Brown. Sam Howell was a fantastic recruiting get for the program – stolen away from Florida State – and now he has to be the face of the franchise as the new starting quarterback from Day One … maybe.
Cade Fortin showed flashes in his little bit of work in his first season, and fellow redshirt freshman Jace Ruder might just be sharp enough to get the starting call early on. Everyone is getting a shot in one of the ACC’s most interesting quarterback battles.
– The running backs should be the early strength. Jordon Brown transferred to Kansas State after finishing third on the team in rushing, but that’s partly because speedy Michael Carter and the 210-pound Antonio Williams will be the main men. The two combined or just over 1,100 yards with seven scores, and they have the potential to be the centerpiece of the attack. But …
– The Longo offense makes stars out of the receivers. Leading yardage guy Anthony Ratliff-Williams took off early for the NFL, but Dazz Newsome is back after leading the team with 44 catches, and sophomore Dyami Brown and junior Beau Corrales are big targets who can get down the field.
Throw in junior Rontavius Groves and his 18-yard average from last year, and dangerous TE Carl Tucker, and Howell and the rest of the quarterbacks have weapons to work with.
– Can the line be good in pass protection again and pus for close to 200 rushing yards per game again? The tackles aren’t stars yet, but senior Charlie Heck and sophomore Jordan Tucker should be in the hunt for All-ACC honors. There’s decent size, experience, and versatility for the interior, but it’ll take fall camp to put together the right starting threesome.
NEXT: What You Need To Know About the Defense, Top Players, Keys to the Season, What Will Happen
4. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NORTH CAROLINA DEFENSE
– Awful, the defense allowed 35 points and 448 yards per game with a painful inability come up with a key stop. The pass rush was great, but it didn’t lead to much of anything. The defensive coordinator combination of Tommy Thigpen and Jay Bateman have six of the top nine tacklers back, but the top three are gone. However …
– The defensive line has hope and promise. 285-pound senior Jason Strowbridge isn’t flashy, but he’s a productive defensive tackle who made a lot of plays and can get behind the line. Combined with 310-pound senior Aaron Crawford, there’s hope for a decent year on the inside – at least if experience matters.
Top pass rusher Malik Carney is done, and junior Tomon Fox has to do more to get to the quarterback. He can get behind the line, but he has to generate more pressure.
– Top tackler Cole Holcomb is done, but Dominque Ross is a quick, active option who can play inside or out, and Jonathan Smith has the upside to be the team’s leading hitter in the middle if he can stay healthy for a full season. Overall it’s a young group, but it has to be far, far steadier against the run.
– Four of the top five defensive backs return for the new coaching staff to play around with. Overall, the defensive backs came up with just seven interceptions. Corners Patrice Rene and Greg Ross can hit, but they need to be better when the ball is in the air.
6-2, 210-pound senior Myles Dorn has good range at free safety who missed a part of the season but still came up with 55 stops. Sophomore Trey Morrison had a nice first season with 46 tackles doing a good job in the open field.
NEXT: Top Players, Keys To the Season, What Will Happen
3. TOP NORTH CAROLINA PLAYERS
Best North Carolina Offensive Player
QB Sam Howell, Fr.
He might not even start, and the two running backs – Michael Carter and Antonio Williams – are going to be the main men early on, but he’s going to be the star of the program if all goes according to play. Off to Florida State, the UNC coaching staff stole him away, and very soon, he needs to be the reason the offense starts to become special – if it is.
He’s only 6-1 and 225 pounds, but he’s an elite passing prospect with the mobility needed to take off and be a factor on the move. Jace Ruder and Cade Fortin are knee-deep in the fight for the gig, but Howell is too good to keep off the field.
2. RB Michael Carter, Jr.
3. WR/PR Dazz Newsome, Jr.
4. RB Antonio Williams, Sr.
5. OT Charlie Heck, Jr.
Best North Carolina Defensive Player
DT Jason Strowbridge, Sr.
After a decent sophomore season, the 6-4, 285-pounder turned into one of the few bright spots as a junior as a key pass rusher and all-around stopper on the inside.
He’s a tackle who can play like an end – or vice versa – making 36 tackles with 5.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss. A 3-4 end or a 4-3 tackle, he’ll move around where needed on what could and should be a vastly improved defensive front.
2. FS Myles Dorn, Sr.
3. LB Dominique Ross, Jr.
4. CB Patrice Rene, Jr.
5. DE Tomon Fox, Jr.
NEXT: Keys to the Season, Prediction & What Will Happen
2. KEYS TO THE SEASON
Biggest Key To The North Carolina Offense
Score … duh. There’s going to be a good running game again, and the passing game will come around as soon as the starting quarterback emerges, but no matter how it happens, the team needs to put the biscuit in the basket.
It’s not like the offense couldn’t move the ball. It couldn’t convert on fourth downs, and there were a few blow-up moments for an attack that came up with yards in chunks, but sputtered too often in the red zone and couldn’t make up for a porous defense.
In the 11 games, UNC scored 21 points or fewer five times, and had the same problem with a run of 21 or fewer 12 times over a 16 game span over 2017 to 2018. The scoring picked up late in the season as the offense finally started to close out drives, but again, it wasn’t enough to overcome the defensive issues.
Biggest Key To The North Carolina Defense
Stop other teams from scoring … duh. Out of the 23 teams that allowed more points per game than the Tar Heels did, just two – Hawaii and Houston – went bowling.
Under the new coaching staff, the mindset has to change. After years and years of winning because of the offense, the D that allowed 33 points or more seven times in 11 games – and 13 times in the last 23 – needs to start pulling its weight.
It starts with coming up with more third down stops to get off the field, and it continues with being able to come up with more takeaways, and stopping the run once in a while matters.
The pass rush will be there with a promising group of linemen, and there’s experience in the back seven. But to go from allowing 34.5 points per game to a middle-of-the-pack 27ish a game will make a massive difference.
Key Player To A Successful Season
WR Dazz Newsome, Jr.
The key player is actually the starting quarterback, but with three good options – and Sam Howell the most talented of the lot – it’ll be okay. They all have veteran targets to throw to, but they have to be more explosive.
Want to start scoring more? Want to start winning more shootouts? The passing game that was second-to-last in the ACC in yards per completion has to improve after averaging just 11.2 yards per throw.
Newsome led the team with 44 catches, but he only gained 506 yards with two scores. Very quick, very dangerous, and good enough to be one of the nation’s top punt returners, he’s got the tools. Now he has to use them to make bigger things happen.
Key Game To The North Carolina Season
at Wake Forest, Sept. 12
Talent-wise, this is North Carolina punching at its own weight. The Tar Heels have the experience and the potential to win games like this on the road, and it’ll be a must to take down the interdivisional game, or else.
UNC will be better, but it’ll probably lose to South Carolina to kick things off. Miami, Clemson, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech. That’s what’s coming up after playing the Demon Deacons, along with a very, very, very scary game against Appalachian State.
It’s been more of a fight of a battle than you might think. UNC won the last matchup 50-14 in 2015, but the series is 6-6 in the last 12 going back to 1998.
– North Carolina Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
2018 North Carolina Fun Stats
– Sacks: North Carolina 32 for 207 yards – Opponents 10 for 69 yards
– 3rd Down Conversions: Opponents 71-for-162 (44%) – North Carolina 58-for-168 (34.5%)
– Time of Possession: Opponents 31:44 – North Carolina 28:16
NEXT: What Will Happen
1. NORTH CAROLINA WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
How much of a magician is Mack Brown?
Is there really talent in place after the end of the Larry Fedora era, or is there simply a lot of experience with the hope of it all coming together thanks to the new energy and fresh ideas from the regime change?
North Carolina has won five games since then-his-name-was-Mitch Trubisky and company lost to Stanford in the 2016 Sun Bowl. Two of those wins came against Pitt – each by three points – two came against FCS teams, and one came against Old Dominion. That’s it.
That’s a long, long drop from playing for the ACC Championship in 2015.
On the plus side, UNC lost five of its nine games by a touchdown or less, and it was at least competitive in other losses to Virginia and Georgia Tech. So is this going to require just a little bit of tweaking, or is there going to be an overhaul?
The skill players are fine, the offensive line was good enough for most of last year and gets most of the parts back, and the defense is at least experienced. That’s enough – along with the new coaching staff – to at least start to pull up out of the nosedive …
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 4
The Tar Heels will beat Mercer. After that, good luck finding the other sure-thing wins.
South Carolina? It’s in Charlotte, but … nah.
Miami? At Wake Forest? Maybe on the right day there’s a split.
Clemson – next – or on the road against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Pitt or NC State?
Even the Appalachian State game is dangerous.
But assume that out of all those close call games of last year, a few flip the other way this time around. The Tar Heels will beat Appalachian State, maybe take down Duke at home, and pull off a stunner somewhere else.
Brown didn’t sign up for mediocrity, but after the last two seasons, that would be a step up.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
