Preview 2019: Previewing and looking ahead to the New Mexico State Aggies season with what you need to know.
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– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Schedule Analysis
– New Mexico State Previews 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2018 Record: 3-9
Head Coach: Doug Martin, 6th year, 20-53
5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSE
– The offense picked it up a bit after a rough start, but it still averaged just 371 yards and 25 points overall. The passing attack was ineffective, there wasn’t enough of a ground game, and there were too many stalled drives. On the plus side, it was a rebuilding year, and now the payoff should come – at least a bit – with eight starters returning.
– The O line that struggled in pass protection and couldn’t get anything consistently going on the ground gets four starters back. there’s good bulk on the outside, and more size among the young reserves to generate some sort of push for seniors Jason Huntley and Christian Gibson, who combined for close to 1,100 yards and 13 scores. They didn’t get the ball enough in an O that likes the midrange passing game. Also helping with the running game …
– QB Josh Adkins is back after – all things considered – a decent first season. The sophomore ran well, and he came up with over 2,500 passing yards after stepping in for starter Matt Romero, who struggled out of the gate at pushing anything down the field. He’s the program now. As he improves, so goes the 2019 NMSU season … more on that in a few moments.
– Leading receiver Jonathan Boone is done, but Huntley is a terrific receiver out of the backfield, and five of the top six receivers and TE Bryce Roberts are back. This is a very big, very promising group of 6-3ish targets around the 5-7, 165-pound OJ Clark, who finished second with 52 catches but for just 512 yards.
NEXT: What You Need To Know About the Defense, Top Players, Keys to the Season, What Will Happen
4. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEW MEXICO STATE DEFENSE
– After a decent 2017 season against the run, the defense hammered for over 1,000 more yards on the ground. The D generated a strong pass rush and was great at getting behind the line, but overall it allowed 476 yards and 41 points per game, mostly because the front seven couldn’t hold up.
– Three of the top four and five of the top eight tacklers are gone, with the linebacking corps taking the biggest hit losing Terrill Hanks, Jonathan Hood and Leon McQuaker on the outside.
Leading tackler Javahn Fergurson is back, but the Aggies need more at the other two spots. Ferguson will likely move to the outside, and sophomore Devin Richardson is set to take over a much larger role.
– The line gets back the most talent back with everyone returning. There’s good size with the 315-pound Myles Vigne on the nose and the 313-pound Roy Lopez on the inside. There’s not a whole lot of bulk among the depth, though, and the pass rush has to emerge from someone up front other than Cedric Wilcots, who led the way with seven sacks.
– The secondary that struggled to come up with picks, but allowed an okay 208 yards per game, loses big-tackling safety Ron LaForce, but has decent parts returning, especially at corner. Shamad Lomax will be one of the leading tacklers at strong safety.
NEXT: Top Players, Keys To the Season, What Will Happen
3. TOP NEW MEXICO STATE PLAYERS
Best New Mexico State Offensive Player
RB Jason Huntley, Sr.
Christian Gibson might be the more effective power runner, and QB Josh Adkins needs to be the team’s best offensive player, but the speedy Huntley is the Swiss Army knife type who ran for 505 yards and seven scores, caught 47 passes for 529 yards and three touchdown, and was among the nation’s top kick returners with three taken for touchdowns. The coaching staff will invent more ways to get the ball in his hands.
2. RB Christian Gibson, Sr.
3. QB Josh Adkins, Soph.
4. WR OJ Clark, Sr.
5. C Jamin Smith, Sr.
Best New Mexico State Defensive Player
LB Javahn Fergurson, Sr.
The 6-1, 232-pounder didn’t make every defensive play, but he gave it a shot with 132 tackles, 5.5 sacks, and even a pick-six in the season finale against Liberty. Banged up early on in his career, he started to break through with a 56-tackle junior season. Last year he became a killer in the middle, and now he’s back as the main man moving around where needed in the linebacking corps.
2. DE Cedric Wilcots, Sr.
3. DE/DT Roy Lopez, Sr.
4. S Shamad Lomax, Sr.
5. LB Mike Edwards, Soph.
NEXT: Keys to the Season, Prediction & What Will Happen
2. KEYS TO THE SEASON
Biggest Key To The New Mexico State Offense
Run the ball better. The Aggies regularly ran for over 2,000 yards, but the passing game and the sped-up offense took over in 2017, and the ground game suffered. Last season, they finished with just 1,264 yards and averaged a mere 3.6 yards per carry. It was the worst rushing year for the program since 2012, when it barely hit three yards per pop with 1,171 yards in the ugly 1-11 campaign.
With the backs they have in place, and with a runner in QB Josh Adkins, there’s no reason not to start grinding more. However, that’s hard to do when you get behind, with means …
Biggest Key To The New Mexico State Defense
Stop the run just a wee bit. The 2017 defense had its issues, but it wasn’t miserable against the run, allowing 2,164 yards and just over four yards per carry. Last season? The Aggies got crushed for 3,221 rushing yards, 38 scores, and over five yards per carry.
Teams were able to control games way too easily by powering away in game after game. Liberty was the only team that didn’t at least flirt with 200 rushing yards – New Mexico ran for 198, but scored five times – against an Aggie D that allowed 300 rushing yards or more five times.
Key Player To A Successful Season
QB Josh Adkins, Soph.
Take your pick of several defensive players who need to step up to change things up after a rough season, but the offense has to do its part to keep drives going and keep up in inevitable shootouts. That means Adkins needs to become special after stepping in and completing 57% of his passes for 2,563 yards and 13 scores with nine picks. Can he come close to hitting the 4,000-yard passing mark that Tyler Rogers cranked up two years ago? Absolutely.
Key Game To The New Mexico State Season
at New Mexico, Sept. 21
The Aggies were able to beat the Lobos two years in a row, and now they have to take back the rivalry after getting roasted 42-25 last year. They’ll get annihilated over the first part of the season against Washington State, Alabama and San Diego State, and they have to deal with Fresno State after this. If they’re going to dream of getting close to six wins and bowl eligibility, they have to win this.
– New Mexico State Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
2018 New Mexico State Fun Stats
– TDs Scored: Opponents 63 – New Mexico State 38
– Time of Possession: Opponents 34:44 – New Mexico State 25:10
– Rushing Yards: Opponents 3,235 – New Mexico State 1,264
NEXT: What Will Happen
1. NEW MEXICO STATE WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
There’s experience and upside in place to be a whole lot better than the 2018 3-9 version, but is there enough talent to overcome to come close to six wins and bowl eligibility?
The problem isn’t just that the Aggies have to improve; they have to be night-and-day better at a whole lot of things like kick an punt coverage. Punting. Fourth down stops. That goes along with needing a whole lot more from the run defense, pass protection, downfield pass plays …
That’s where the experience needs to kick in.
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 4
Just assume ugly losses against Washington State, Alabama, and Ole Miss on the road, and there will be issues at home against San Diego State and Fresno State. That’s five losses without blinking.
Winning at both Central Michigan and Georgia Southern will be a problem, and beating Liberty twice won’t be easy.
There’s a trip to New Mexico, and ….
The Aggies are running out of likely wins.
Incarnate Word isn’t a sure thing, but it’s a home game. So is the first of two dates against Liberty and the date with UTEP.
With the improvements, hope for four wins, but only if all of those little things improve.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Schedule Analysis
