Preview 2019: Previewing and looking ahead to the New Mexico Lobos season with what you need to know.
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– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Schedule Analysis
– New Mexico Previews 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2018 Record: 3-9 overall, 1-7 in Mountain West
Head Coach: Bob Davie, 9th year, 33-54
– CFN Preview 2019: All The Team Previews
5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEW MEXICO OFFENSE
– The offense never had a chance. After years of relying on the pounding ground attack and ball control, the Lobos tried opening it up a little bit, but they suffered a major blow with QB Tevaka Tuioti got knocked out for the year early on.
Sheriron Jones stepped in and was okay at times, but he threw 12 picks and the offense stalled way too often. If he can stay healthy, Tuioti is the guy, but redshirt freshman Trae Hall and JUCO transfer Brandt Hughes will be deep in the mix in fall camp.
– The running game lost a few of its key parts – particularly leading rusher Tyrone Owens and his 687 yards – but sophomore Daevon Vigilant is a shifty back with a. good burst. He got his feet wet last year running for 185 yards, and junior Ahmari Davis will be a part of the rotation, too. But after running for 4,550 yards and 48 touchdowns in 2016, the attack that finished with 1,838 yards and just 17 scores needs to find its groove again, starting with …
– The offensive line has to be stronger. The Lobos couldn’t keep anyone out of the backfield and did nothing to pound away for the ground attack to make up for the issues throughout the rest of the offense. But now four starters are back with plenty of experienced options to work into the mix. There isn’t a ton of bulk, but it should be a far better group around junior Teton Saltes at one tackle job and Kyle Stapley at center.
– The receiving corps loses leading target Delane Hart-Johnson, but he only caught 33 passes. It’s one of the team’s deeper areas – now they need the ball.
Elijah Lilly is a dangerous playmaker with the ball in his hands – averaging close to 18 yards per catch – and the quick Anselem Umeh is coming off an interesting year averaging 20 yards on his 16 grabs. Helping the cause is Marcus Williams, a good-looking tight end who caught 13 passes with three scores.
NEXT: What You Need To Know About the Defense, Top Players, Keys to the Season, What Will Happen
4. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEW MEXICO DEFENSE
– Uh oh. The defense wasn’t exactly a brick wall last season – finishing 119th in the nation allowing 473 yards and 36 points per game – and now it loses its top eight tacklers and ten of the top 11.
S Marcus Hayes was an all-star return man and good playmaker, but he left for Kansas State. Top pass rusher Rhashaun Epting took off for Tennessee State. There’s a wee bit of rebuilding to be done, starting with …
– The secondary that allowed 256 yards per game is all but starting from scratch. All five starters have to be replaced, and this is just a small part of where a ton of JUCO transfers are about to fit in.
Eric Cuffee is a blazer who was off to Texas, but he now has to be an instant factor, as does corner Antonio Hunt, a smallish ball-hawker who’ll push for a job right away. Jerrick Reed will be a part of the safety rotation early on, too. But there are some pieces already in place, like CB De’John Rogers and S Patrick Peek, but it’ll take a bit to get the right five guys on the field.
– Three JUCO transfers will try fitting in right away at linebacker, too. 5-11, 237-pound Jacobi Hearn should be the best of the bunch early on, but former JUCOer Brandon Shook is one of the few remaining holdovers from last year’s D.
Shook will get a look in the middle, and 246-pound senior Alexander Vainikolo is a decent big hitter on the outside. Getting Alex Hart back – the team’s third leading tackler two years ago – from injury is a huge help.
– The line is one of the areas that didn’t need an instant infusion of starting options, but they’re coming. Aaron Blackwell was a decent starter on the note, and Nahe Flowers is a veteran end. Former Georgia Tech trainer Trent Sellers and JUCO transfer Joey Noble will be part of the depth, and senior Adebayo Sormekun has to use his 298 pounds to gum up the works at one end.
NEXT: Top Players, Keys To the Season, What Will Happen
3. TOP NEW MEXICO PLAYERS
Best New Mexico Offensive Player
QB Tevaka Tuioti, Soph.
It’s all about his health. The 6-1, 199-pounder is smart, quick, and dangerous, but he also got beaten up in his short stint last year. He only saw time in parts of three games, but he threw for 439 yards and five scores with two picks, and he ran for 100 yards and a touchdown. When he’s right, he’s a baller who can carry the offense and the team, but he took big shots last year leading to the concussion symptoms that kept him out for the year.
2. TE Marcus Williams, Jr.
3. C Kyle Stapley, Jr.
4. WR Elijah Lilly, Sr.
5. OT Teton Saltes, Jr.
Best New Mexico Defensive Player
DT Aaron Blackwell, Sr.
One of the bright spots on the defense – and one of the only returning starters in the mix – the 6-3, 288-pounder is a mega-strong nose tackle who can get behind the line from time to time. He came up with 29 tackles with two sacks and four tackles for loss, but his job is to hold up so everyone else can work around him.
2. LB Brandon Shook, Jr.
3. P Tyson Dyer, Jr.
4. LB Alex Hart, Sr.
5. DE Nahje Flowers, Jr.
NEXT: Keys to the Season, Prediction & What Will Happen
2. KEYS TO THE SEASON
Biggest Key To The New Mexico Offense
The offensive line has to keep defenses out of the backfield. It was partly a function of the offensive style that allowed defenses to pin their ears back and get behind the line, but after giving up just 53 tackles for loss in 2017, the 87 the given up last season was a killer.
The running game that had become such a staple of the program couldn’t get going. It averaged just 3.6 yards per carry and hit the 200-yard mark twice against FBS teams. The year before? 5.21 yard per carry and rolled for 200 yards or more five times.
The O line has to give the skill guys in the backfield a shot.
Biggest Key To The New Mexico Defense
Get off the field. The Lobos had a decent pass rush, but the defense couldn’t come up with enough stops on a regular basis to change up the momentum of games. There wasn’t any control – and the massive time of possession disparity proved that.
It was because New Mexico was dead last in the Mountain West in third down stops, giving up conversions 43% of the time overall. The three times it allowed offenses to convert fewer than 35% of their chances, it won.
Key Player To A Successful Season
QB Tevaka Tuioti, Soph.
Or Sherriron Jones, or Trae Hall, or Brandt Hughes. The Lobos need a whole lot of help in a whole lot of areas, and the O line has to do its part to keep the quarterbacks upright, but one of the passers has to be a consistent star to turn this whole thing around fast.
Tuioti was great when he was able to stay on the field for parts of three games. Jones was okay, but he made too many mistakes and didn’t move the offense. That’s where Hall and Hughes step in with every shot there at the gig in fall camp. But if Tuioti can end the debate right away and make the job his, that would be just fine, too.
Key Game To The New Mexico Season
Colorado State, Oct. 12
If the Lobos hope to have any sort of a decent season, they have to beat Sam Houston State, New Mexico State, Liberty and San Jose State over the first part of the season – or at least with three of the four. Colorado State will be the measuring stick moment.
It’s a home game for New Mexico, and it’s a chance to break an ugly streak. Colorado State won 20-18 last year in Albuquerque, making it nine straight wins going back to 2009. This is when the Lobos will know if they’re any good.
– New Mexico Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
2018 New Mexico Fun Stats
– 1st Quarter Scoring: Opponents 128 – New Mexico 59
– Fumbles: Opponents 23 (lost 13) – New Mexico 19 (lost 9)
– Time of Possession: Opponents 32:24 – Opponents 27:36
NEXT: What Will Happen
1. NEW MEXICO WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
There’s a lot not to like.
The defense is all but starting over, the secondary needs a whole lot of thoughts and prayers, and the linebacking corps could use the JUCO parts to help the cause.
The offense, though, should be able to make up for it if a starting quarterback can emerge and stay healthy. Throw in the good kicking game, and there’s a shot the Lobos turn things around a wee bit after a disastrous 2018.
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 5
There will be moments when the offense clicks, and that will be enough to survive and advance. There shouldn’t be problems with Sam Houston State or New Mexico State, and the road games at Liberty and San Jose State are 50/50 propositions. Figure on three wins from that group.
There will be a fun win or two somewhere, like against Hawaii or Air Force at home, or against Wyoming on the road, but there won’t be enough of them to get to six wins.
It might sound part copout, part cliché, but this will be the proverbial X factor team in the Mountain West. It’s not going to have nearly enough in the bag to make a run in the conference race, but if most of the JUCO transfers can come through, and if health isn’t an issue, there could be a wide disparity in win total possibilities.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Schedule Analysis
