Preview 2019: Previewing and looking ahead to the Michigan State Spartans season with what you need to know.
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– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
– Michigan State Previews 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2018 Record: 7-6 overall, 5-4 in Big Ten
Head Coach: Mark Dantonio, 13th year, 107-51
– CFN Preview 2019: All The Team Previews
5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE MICHIGAN STATE OFFENSE
– It can’t/won’t/better not be worse. The offense wasted a College Football Playoff level effort from the defensive side with a season that got worse as it went on. The Spartans managed 14 points or fewer in six of the 13 games, and scored just six in three of the last four. The Big Ten’s second-worst attack averaged 342 yards and 18.7 points per game, all while the D allowed 21 points or fewer ten times.
In a case of the-food-is-bad-but-the-portions-are-huge, there’s a lot of work to do, but nine starters are back.
– The running game never got going. LJ Scott was only part of the fun for five games, and now he’s pushing for an NFL job. 236-pound junior Connor Heyward was okay – running for 529 yards and five scores as the team’s leading rusher – and he can handle the work if he gets room.
There’s depth – 227-pound La’Darius Jefferson and 202-pound Weston Bridges are sophomores – but no matter what, the ground game can’t average 3.5 yards per carry and be so consistently inept.
– The line wasn’t great, but it wasn’t awful in pass protection, and the coaching staff had to patch things together through a slew of injuries. There’s a shot this group turns into a major plus if everyone stays in one piece. All five starters from the bowl game are back, there’s promising depth, and there’s young talent in star recruits Devontae Dobbs and Spencer Brown. Speaking of injuries …
– The Spartan receiving corps was never able to rely on a consistent starting group. Felton Davis was out for the year midway through the season – now he’s done – and leading yardage guy Cody White missed a chunk of time in the middle of the season. This is a big corps with the 6-3 White catching 42 passes for 555 yards, and 6-2 Darrell Stewart making 45 grabs. Junior TE Matt Dotson is a nice target who should come up with at least 30 grabs, but …
– It’s all about the quarterback play. The line will be fine and the skill players are good enough. Now the quarterbacks have to be at least decent after Brian Lewerke – who wasn’t healthy for a bulk of last season – struggled way too much, and backup Rocky Lombardi was … interesting.
Great in the win over Purdue, Lombardi was a disaster against Nebraska and Rutgers. At least there’s experience at the No. 2 spot, and Lewerke should be far better now that his banged up shoulder is okay.
NEXT: What You Need To Know About the Defense, Top Players, Keys to the Season, What Will Happen
4. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
– The 2018 defense had the right to break something tasteful after it was let down time and again by the offense. The D led the nation against the run, allowed a mere 303 yards per game overall, and was tops in the Big Ten in scoring defense allowing just 17 points per game. With eight starters and eight of the top 11 tacklers coming back, the expectations are for more of the same.
– Second-leading tackler Andrew Dowell is gone, but Joe Bachie should once again be one of the Big Ten’s best linebackers at his spot in the middle. 239-pound Tyriq Thompson is a big veteran at one outside spot, and Antjuan Simmons is ready for a bigger role on the other side. Now the linebacking corps needs reliable backups outside of junior Brandon Bouyer-Randle.
– The Spartan defensive front was just okay at getting into the backfield. That’s nitpicking – it’s going to be a brick wall against the run again. DE Kenny Willekes earned First Team All-Big Ten honors after finishing fourth on the team with 78 stops, but he’s coming off a broken leg. Jacub Panasiuk is a decent veteran on the other side.
The tackle combination of Raequan Williams and Mike Panasiuk is will be in the all-star mix. Throw in 6-4, 339-pound Naquan Jones into the interior rotation,
– As always, the Michigan State secondary is going to be a plus. Good-tackling veteran Khari Willis is gone from one safety spot, but David Dowdell is a reliable veteran returning and Xavier Henderson has star potential with a bigger role. Even with Justin Layne leaving early for the NFL, the corner situation is among the Big Ten’s best with the combination of Josaiah Scott and Josh Butler.
NEXT: Top Players, Keys To the Season, What Will Happen
3. TOP MICHIGAN STATE PLAYERS
Best Michigan State Offensive Player
WR Cody White, Jr.
Call this a massive projection, but White has the 6-3, 218-pound size and the deep speed to become fantastic.
The hope is for Brian Lewerke to step back up and become the star of the O, and it would be nice if a killer running back emerges, but for an offense that needs more firepower, White missed four games banged up, but he still caught 42 passes for 55 yards and two touchdowns – and was one of the few offensive bright spots in the Redbox Bowl with six grabs.
2. QB Brian Lewerke, Sr.
3. PK Matt Coughlin, Jr.
4. RB Connor Heyward, Jr.
5. WR Darrell Stewart, Sr.
Best Michigan State Defensive Player
LB Joe Bachie, Sr.
Throw the names of just about every Michigan State defensive starter into a hat, pick one out, and you might have the one who’ll be the team’s best player.
Bachie, though, is the 6-3, 238-pound leader and star of the great D, returning for one more year after leading the way with 102 tackles – and 202 over the last two years – with a sack and an interception. He might not do too much behind the line, but he’s good in pass protection and gets in on everything against the run.
2. DE Kenny Willekes, Sr.
3. DT Raequan Williams, Sr.
4. S David Dowell, Sr.
5. DT Mike Panasiuk, Jr.
NEXT: Keys to the Season, Prediction & What Will Happen
2. KEYS TO THE SEASON
Biggest Key To The Michigan State Offense
Complete passes. There were a whole slew of issues for the Spartan offense – the running game went nowhere, there were too many turnovers, scoring points was like pulling teeth – but the reboot starts with merely being able to hit a few more throws.
Accuracy has always been optional when it comes to MSU quarterbacks – the last time the O hit the 60% mark for the season was when Kirk Cousins was slinging it in 2011 – but completing just 51% last year was a killer.
The receiving corps was banged up, and QB Brian Lewerke was hurt, but the offensive problems kicked in once the offense couldn’t convert on third downs, couldn’t move the chains, and couldn’t throw well. The Spartan passing game failed to hit 60% in any of the last nine games, and didn’t even get past 50% in six of them.
Biggest Key To The Michigan State Defense
Be otherworldly on third downs. With a stronger offense, the defense shouldn’t have to carry the team’s fortunes game-in-and-game-out … but it might have to.
The Spartan defense held offense to under a 30% conversion rate an impressive eight times, and mostly had to keep teams to under 25% – going 4-1 when it did – to make things easier.
It’s no coincidence that in the odd 3-9 2016 season, the D allowed teams to convert 42% of the time, and 42% in the 6-7 2009 run … and held teams to under 40% in eight of the last ten seasons.
Key Player To A Successful Season
QB Brian Lewerke, Sr.
THAT can’t happen again.
Lewerke might have been banged up with a shoulder injury, and it might have been a frustrating year overall for the offense, but an eight touchdown pass, 11 interception, wildly inefficient year wasn’t okay.
For a team that just needs something from the passing game, and needs its veteran leader to step up in key moments, the Big Ten title is on the table if the senior can go back to his sophomore year form.
Key Game To The Michigan State Season
at Ohio State, Oct. 5
The Spartans have lost three in a row to the Buckeyes and four of the last five since taking out the Buckeyes in the 2013 Big Ten Championship. Lose this time, and any hopes of winning the East are probably gone in early October.
The trip to Columbus comes after going to Northwestern a few weeks earlier, and right before having to deal with Wisconsin in Camp Randall and Penn State. Oh yeah … and the Spartans have to go to Ann Arbor, too.
– Michigan State Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
2018 Michigan State Fun Stats
– 4th Quarter Scoring: Opponents 104 – Michigan State 49
– Rushing Yards Per Game: Michigan State 124.8 – Opponents 77.9
– Time of Possession: Michigan State 32:49 – Opponents 27:11
NEXT: What Will Happen
1. MICHIGAN STATE WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
It’s not a given that the defense will be among the ten best in college football again with a second straight historic campaign against the run … but it’s not asking for the world out of this group.
The Spartan D that was so amazing returns enough starters to keep it all going, or at least come close. It doesn’t have to allow just 17 points and 78 rushing yards per game again, but the expectations are higher now considering everything that’s in place.
That includes finally getting a little help form the other side.
The offense will start to do its part this time around with improved play at quarterback, enough depth to overcome injuries – an issue last year – and the experience at the skill spots to at least not be completely miserable.
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 9
The team is good enough to win the Big Ten title, but it’s not happening thanks to the brutal schedule.
The non-conference slate isn’t bad considering all three games are at home, but one of them is against a strong Arizona State squad.
The Big Ten road games are the problem, having to play five of them including dates at Northwestern, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan. Throw in the home games against Penn State and an improved Indiana, and getting to nine wins with a shot at a double-digit win season after the bowls will be a great run.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
