Preview 2019: Previewing and looking ahead to the Iowa Hawkeyes season with what you need to know.
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– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
– Iowa Previews 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2018 Record: 9-4 overall, 5-4
Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz, 21st year, 152-101
– CFN Preview 2019: All The Team Previews
5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE IOWA OFFENSE
– The offense was hit or miss. The passing game was okay and effective, but considering how good the offensive line was, the ground attack wasn’t there like it should’ve been. The Hawkeyes managed 31 points or more six times and won all six games – and went 3-4 when it was under the mark.
– How is the passing attack going to be better without NFL tight ends TJ Hockenson and Noah Fantasias to throw to? It won’t be, but Nate Stanley might just be – don’t snicker – the best quarterback in the Big Ten. The senior needs to up the completion percentage after hitting just 59% of his throws, but he threw for 2,862 yards and 26 touchdowns with ten picks.
He’s a veteran who know what he’s doing, he’s got the size, and he’s got the next-level ability. Now he has to take the team on his back … and without those amazing tight ends.
– So who tries to replace Hockenson and Fant? All they did was lead the team in receiving yards, and leading wide receiver Nick Easley is gone, too. The Hawkeyes have a strong, dangerous wideout twosome in Brandon Smith and Ihmir Smith-Marsette. They’ll stretch the field, and it’ll be up to senior Nate Wieting and Shaun Beyer to step in at tight end. They’re going to be good, but there will be a drop off.
– Will there be more of a running game after coming up with just 1,928 yards and averaging fewer than four yards per carry? Junior Mekhi Sargent is back after leading the way with 745 yards and nine scores, Toren Young is a power back who finished second on the team, and Ivory Kelly-Martin is back with the burst to do more. The Hawkeyes have the backs, but …
– The O line needs to be stronger. It’s Iowa, so the front five will be terrific, but it might take a little working around all-star Toren Young at one tackle gig and Tristn Wirfs back on the other side. The coaching staff will have to use a little magic to come up with the right front three in the interior – here’s your biggest job in fall camp.
NEXT: What You Need To Know About the Defense, Top Players, Keys to the Season, What Will Happen
4. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE IOWA DEFENSE
– The Hawkeye defense that finished seventh in the nation and allowed just 17.8 points per game loses seven starters and the top four tacklers. It’s not a total rebuild, but there’s work to do on the front seven, at least when it comes to creating a good rotation with developed depth. But …
– AJ Epenesa might be the best defensive end in college football. At least, the NFL types certainly think so. Technically, he wasn’t a starter – Iowa is really getting back five – but he’s back along with junior Chauncey Golston on the other side. Seniors Cedrick Lattimore and Brady Reiff are more than ready to play bigger roles on the inside. Even with the losses, the line will be strong, and …
– Dijmon Colbert is a good tackling outside linebacker who should be able to get into the backfield on a regular basis, and Nick Niemann returns on the other side after coming up with 43 tackles. Now the Hawkeyes have to replace Jack Hockaday on the inside, with senior Kristian Welch a bigger option coming off a 49-stop campaign.
– The secondary that was among the nation’s best loses the team’s top tackler in Jake Gervase, and playmaking safety Amani Hooker is now a Tennessee Titan.
Geno Stone will work at one safety spot after coming up with 39 tackles and four picks, and the corner combination of Michael Ojemudia and Matt Hankins is big and experienced.
NEXT: Top Players, Keys To the Season, What Will Happen
3. TOP IOWA PLAYERS
Best Iowa Offensive Player
QB Nate Stanley, Sr.
The 6-4, 243-pounder might not have a whole lot of flash, and he might not get the hype of Ohio State’s Justin Fields, Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez, or Michigan’s Shea Patterson, but he’s got the arm, the size, and the two years of starting experience going into this season to be the Big Ten’s best quarterback.
He has to be more accurate – completing 59% of his throws – but he can push the ball down the field and he should be the veteran decision-maker to get the O going despite the loss of a few key targets.
2. OT Alaric Jackson, Jr.
3. OT Tristan Wirfs, Jr.
4. WR Brandon Smith, Jr.
5. RB Mekhi Sargent, Jr.
Best Iowa Defensive Player
DE AJ Epenesa, Jr.
The 6-6, 280-pounder is NFL ready right now, and he’s a lock to be a top 15 overall pick next year. With his bulk, he’s solid against the run making 37 stops, and he’s quick enough to crank up 10.5 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss. Relentless and with a great motor, he’s always working to get to the quarterback, but more than ever, he’ll have to get used to being keyed on.
2. S Geno Stone, Jr.
3. DE Chauncey Golston, Sr.
4. CB Michael Ojemudia, Sr.
5. LB Kristian Welch, Sr.
NEXT: Keys to the Season, Prediction & What Will Happen
2. KEYS TO THE SEASON
Biggest Key To The Iowa Offense
It’s time to get that running game going again. The 2016 Hawkeyes had two 1,000-yard rushers – Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels – for an O that made hitting the 2,000-yard rushing mark the norm after struggling in 2012.
The 2018 ground game was better than the 2017 version, but it still failed to average four yards per carry and finished with just 1,929 yards.
The offensive line was the best in the Big Ten in pass protection, but it couldn’t consistently pound away. When Iowa hit the 200-yard mark on the ground, though, it won, going 5-0 when it got there. Over the last four years, Iowa is 19-0 when running for 200.
Biggest Key To The Iowa Defense
The defensive tackles have to rise up and rock. There isn’t a whole lot of concern – the ends are more than big enough – and the Hawkeye tackles are always solid, but they all have to be amazing.
Matt Nelson and Sam Brincks were solid veteran producers with size for the great run D. Nelson went 6-8 and 295 pounds, and Brincks was 6-5 and 265 pounds. Cedrick Lattimore and Brady Reiff are experienced, but they’re also smaller.
Lattimore and Reiff are each around 6-3, and there’s not a whole lot of bulk behind them other than 6-3, 306-pound Daviyon Nixon. If this group rocks, it’ll be another amazing year for the Hawkeye defense.
Key Player To A Successful Season
PK Caleb Shudak, Jr.
Or junior Keith Duncan. Shudak hit an extra point last season, but he didn’t attempt a field goal with Miguel Recinos hitting 17-of-22 field goal tries.
As the season went on, Iowa played tighter and tighter games with five of the last six decided by six points or fewer. During that stretch, Recinos wasn’t perfect – hitting 7-of-9 – but he was good enough.
In a tighter Big Ten West, and with a whole lot of nasty games, one field goal might be the difference between a good season and a special one.
Key Game To The Iowa Season
at Wisconsin, Nov. 9
The Hawkeyes have to face tough game after tough game during a run of eight straight games against teams that went bowling. In division play, there’s a date at Nebraska to close things out and a trip to Northwestern, but forget about winning the West without beating the Badgers in Madison.
Iowa has lost three straight in the series – and six of the last seven – but when it was able to come up with a special defensive performance in 2015, it pulled out a 10-6 victory on the way to an amazing 12-0 regular season with a trip to the Big Ten Championship.
– Iowa Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
2018 Iowa Fun Stats
– Sacks: Iowa 35 for 236 yards – Opponents 16 for 100 yards
– 4th Down Conversions: Iowa 17-of-25 (68%) – Opponents 11-of-25 (44%)
– Iowa 1st Quarter Scoring: 71 – Iowa 2nd Quarter Scoring: 135
NEXT: What Will Happen
1. IOWA WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
You know what you’re about to get from yet another strong Kirk Ferentz team.
There might be some flaws and concerns with your 2019 Iowa Hawkeyes, but it’s going to be yet another hard-nosed team that might just be a whole lot better than anyone wants to give it credit for.
Yeah, the 2018 version went 8-4, but it lost to Penn State, Purdue and Northwestern all by six points or fewer, and it would’ve lost to Wisconsin by one score if there wasn’t a late oh-by-the-way touchdown.
One Outback Bowl win over Mississippi State later, and the Hawkeyes proved they were for real. They’re about to do that again, but the schedule is going to be a big, big issue, so …
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 8
The Hawkeyes should start out 2-0 against Miami University and Rutgers, but they have to go on the road to face Iowa State, Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Nebraska.
Throw in home dates against Penn State, Purdue and Minnesota, and there are more than enough landmines to keep this from being an amazing year.
And that’s where all those close losses of last year come in. Iowa can and will be good enough to win plenty of tight games, but it’ll be on the wrong side of a few of them, too.
The interior on both lines has to go through some reworking, the running game has to be better, the kicking game has to improve, and it’s impossible to overcome the loss of one NFL franchise tight end, much less two.
Fortunately, Nate Stanley is a terrific veteran quarterback to work everything around, the running backs are solid, and the receiving corps should be just good enough to make a dent in the loss of Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson.
The defensive side has a next-man-up thing happening, but the secondary is full of potential all-stars, and AJ Epenesa might just be the best defensive lineman in college football.
At the very least, Iowa will be a part of the Big Ten West hunt, and it’s going to be a tough out each and every week.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
