Preview 2019: Previewing and looking ahead to the Cal Golden Bears season with what you need to know.
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
– Cal Previews 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2018 Record: 7-6 overall, 4-5 in Pac-12
Head Coach: Justin Wilcox, 3rd year, 12-13
5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE CAL OFFENSE
– Can the offense do anything? Offensive coordinator and former Eastern Washington head coach Beau Baldwin knows what he’s doing, but the O just can’t get going. It finished dead last in the Pac-12 in yards and scoring, averaging 344 yards and 21.5 points per game. There were too many interceptions – 20, the second-most in the country – the passing attack was the worst in the conference, and the ground game couldn’t pick up the slack.
– It’s a strange situation. The quarterback play has to be better, but the lack of top talent overall still means sophomore QB Chase Garbers might just be the team’s top player offensive player. He’s being pushed by UCLA transfer Devon Modster and a few young parts, and former South Carolina transfer Brandon McIlwain – who’ll work at running back and receiver – could fill in if there’s an emergency.
– The receivers need to show up, too. The top three wideouts are gone and five of the top six pass catchers are done. The gamebreakers need to emerge from the underclassmen, and Jordan Duncan – the lone senior in the corps – has to become a reliable No. 1 target. At the moment, seven of the top nine receivers are underclassmen.
– The running game wasn’t bad, partly because the quarterbacks combines to contribute for well over 800 yards. That should happen again, but workhorse runner Patrick Laird is gone.
It’ll be a rotation including JUCO transfer DeShawn Collins and returning backs Christopher Brown and Marcel Dancy, but a workhorse has to emerge. They’ll work behind an okay line that returns four starters, but has to be better in pass protection.
NEXT: What You Need To Know About the Defense, Top Players, Keys to the Season, What Will Happen
4. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE CAL DEFENSE
– One of the nation’s best defenses returns eight starters and welcomes in a few terrific additions. This is a coaching staff with a ton of talented defensive minds, starting with head man Justin Wilcox and defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter. Their D led the Pac-12 in pass defense and takeaways, and was 11th in the nation in total defense, giving up just 317 yards and 20.4 points. And now this group should be even better.
– Eight of the top ten tacklers are back, starting with hitting machine Evan Weaver at one linebacker spot, and with 270-pound hybrid pass rusher Tevin Paul working at another outside position. Put Paul on the line, add in fourth-leading tackler Luc Bequette at one end, and get ready for a good rotation of bulk in the interior.
The pass rush might not be all that amazing, and the run defense can get hit from time-to-time, but with JUCO transfer Kuony Deng being added to the mix, the front seven should be a rock.
– The secondary gets everyone of note back. The Bears generated 21 interceptions – second-most in the nation behind Utah State – with S Jaylinn Hawkins picking off six passes and running mate Ashtyn Davis came up with four. The corners are terrific, there’s depth, and if there’s a bit more of a pass rush, this group will be dominant.
NEXT: Top Players, Keys To the Season, What Will Happen
3. TOP CAL PLAYERS
Best Cal Offensive Player
QB Chase Garbers, Soph.
The starting job might not even be his. Former UCLA Bruin and JUCO transfer Devon Modster is in the mix for the starting gig, and others will get a shot in fall camp, but the 6-2, 205-pound Garbers has the inside track after completing 61% of his passes for 1,506 yards and 14 scores, and running for 420 yards and two touchdowns. He’s got the experience, and he has the skills, but now it all has to work, and he has to cut down on the interceptions after throwing ten.
2. RB/WR Brandon McIlwain, Jr.
3. WR Jordan Duncan, Sr.
4. QB Devon Modster, Jr.
5. OT Valentino Daltoso, Soph.
Best Cal Defensive Player
LB Evan Weaver, Sr.
The 6-3, 245-pound all-start big hitter came up with 158 stops with 4.5 sacks and two picks. A bit of a tweener, he could work as a hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end, but he found a home on the inside where he sucks up everything against the run and erases runners when he gets to use his great range. He came up with 11 double-digit stop games in 13, highlighted by an 18-tackle day against Colorado.
2. S Ashtyn Davis, Sr.
3. S Jaylinn Hawkins, Sr.
4. DE Luc Bequette, Sr.
5. DE/LB Tevin Paul, Jr.
NEXT: Keys to the Season, Prediction & What Will Happen
2. KEYS TO THE SEASON
Biggest Key To The Cal Offense
Stop throwing interceptions. No, really, stop. And while we’re at it, be better than then worst in the country in Red Zone offense.
The defense will be among the best in the Pac-12 and nation, and all the offense has to do is score more than 20 points and not royally screw up. How good was the D? It led the country with 21 interceptions. How much did the O ruin things? It threw 20 picks – only Rutgers threw more – and was dead last in college football in turnovers.
Cal threw multiple interceptions in six games, and went 0-6. When it didn’t throw more than one pick, its went 7-0. In the seven wins, the Bears threw two, and gave away 18 in the six losses. Under Justin Wilcox, Cal has lost its last eight games when giving up two or more picks.
Biggest Key To The Cal Defense
The Red Zone D has to be a bit tighter. To be really, really fair, the offense put the defense in a whole lot of bad situations thanks to turnovers. And yes, the defense cleaned up a whole lot of messes.
Overall, the D did its part to keep the team in games, but inside the 20 it allowed too many points. The Bears were last in the Pac-12 in Red Zone defense, with offenses scoring at a 91% clip when getting within range. The defense held relatively firm on touchdowns – just 19 of them came in the 33 attempts – but overall, offenses only came away empty in the Red Zone three times.
Key Player To A Successful Season
WR Jordan Duncan, Sr.
Yes, the key player is either Chase Garbers or Devon Modster at quarterback – the mistakes have to stop and the O has to be sharper – but they need receivers to work with. The 6-1, 205-pound Duncan is the only senior receiver as well as the leading returning target. He missed almost half of the season banged up, but he still finished with 20 catches for 267 yards and four scores.
Granted two of his touchdowns came against Idaho State, and he might not be the team’s most talented receiver, but for the early part of the year, he has to be the elder statesman and go-to guy.
Key Game To The Cal Season
at Oregon, Oct. 5
The Ducks are loaded and might just be have the Pac-12’s best team, and Cal is good enough to beat them – at least defensively. The Bears have lost ten of the last 11 in the series, with 2007 the last time they won in Eugene.
They’ll be coming off the Pac-12 opener against Washington on the road, and they’ll have the Arizona State game under its belt, but going into a week off, and with only one game outside of California the rest of the way, this would be a statement win.
– Cal Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
2018 Cal Fun Stats
– 4th Quarter Scoring: Opponents 86 – Cal 65
– Red Zone Scoring: Opponents 30-of-33 (91%) – Cal 28-of-39 (72%)
– 4th Down Conversions: Cal 17-of-27 (63%) – Opponents 12-of-22 (55%)
NEXT: What Will Happen
1. CAL WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
Can the offense do enough to give the defense just a little bit of help?
The running backs are in place to come up with a good rotation, and the line is full of enough experience and veterans to hope to be a wee bit better. Now the quarterback play has to be a whole lot stronger – whether or not it’s incumbent Chase Garbers or former UCLA Bruin Devon Modster – and the gutted receiving corps has to come up with new options.
Fortunately, the punting game should be among the Pac-12’s best thanks to the return of Australian Steven Coutts, and the defense is going to be special.
Washington has a great D, and Oregon and Stanford will be terrific, too, but be stunned if the Bears aren’t at least among the Pac-12’s top three in total defense.
The coaching staff should be hitting its stride, too, with Justin Wilcox going into his third year, and with a great group around him to take what’s already in place and make it stronger.
Unfortunately, the schedule isn’t there to cooperate.
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 6
Oregon State is a home game coming after a week off. When your second-easiest game is against a North Texas team that might win the Conference USA title, and your third-easiest game is either at Ole Miss, or at UCLA, there’s a problem.
Cal is good enough to potentially win all four of those, but going on the road to deal with the improved Rebels and Bruins are hardly givens.
At Washington. At Oregon. At Utah. At Stanford. Add in home games against Arizona State, Washington State, and USC, and it’ll be a fight to get to six wins.
The Bears will do it, but can this be the breakthrough season that get the program into the Pac-12 title mix? There are too many tough conference road games, but it’ll be the first time the program has gone to bowl games in back-to-back seasons since 2008-2009.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
