Preview 2019: Previewing and looking ahead to the Boise State Broncos season with what you need to know.
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– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Schedule Analysis
– Boise State Previews 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2018 Record: 10-3 overall, 7-1 in Mountain West
Head Coach: Bryan Harsin, 6th year, 52-15
– CFN Preview 2019: All The Team Previews
5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE BOISE STATE OFFENSE
– It’s Boise State, so there are always replacements, but even for the Mountain West powerhouse it’ll be hard to replace a veteran starting quarterback as good as Brett Rypien, a do-it-all back in Alexander Mattison, and replace the top two receivers. The O averaged 460 yards and 35 points per game, but …
– Who’s the quarterback? It wasn’t settled in the spring, but sophomore Chase Cord has the inside track – sort of. He only completed 6-of-9 passes last season for 67 yards with a touchdown and a pick, but that qualifies for experience among these QBs. The problem? He’s coming off a torn ACL, but no one else grabbed the gig by the horns when he was out.
Jaylon Henderson came in from the JUCO ranks last year after starting out at UTSA, and freshman Hank Bachmeier is the star of the near future, but wait until fall camp to figure this one out.
– Boise State isn’t usually a rotation running back team – Mattison ran the ball 302 times last year – but that might be what it is early on with 216-pound junior Robert Mahone and 220-pound junior Andrew Van Buren each seeing plenty of work. They both got a little bit of time last season, but not enough to matter. Like the quarterback situation, wait for fall camp – an underclassman could grab the gig.
– Yes, there’s a ton of experience. Yes, the line has to be a whole lot better. It did a decent job generating a push for the ground game, but it was miserable in pass protection. There’s talent – left tackle Ezra Cleveland might just be the Mountain West’s best blocker – but with all five starters back, the experience has to translate into production.
– Sean Modster and AJ Richardson are gone after combining to catch 16 of the team’s 31 touchdown passes, but the receiving corps is easily the strength of the offense. CT Thomas, John Hightower, Khalil Shakir, and Akilian Butler were the next four more productive targets behind Modster and Richardson, and they’re all back.
Throw in John Bates and a deep group of tight ends, and the new starting quarterback will have more than enough weapons.
NEXT: What You Need To Know About the Defense, Top Players, Keys to the Season, What Will Happen
4. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE BOISE STATE DEFENSE
– The defense only allowed 366 yards and 22 points per game, but despite the fantastic season – giving up just 287 points in all – there’s going to be some tinkering under new defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding.
The D will be about speed and athleticism – as much as possible – but with seven starters and ten of the top 13 tacklers back, there’s not a whole lot of tweaking needing to be done.
– If the linebackers are okay, but they have to be more disruptive. It’s a fine corps, though, despite the loss of Jabril Frazier and with second-leading tackler Tyson Maeva now a FIU Golden Panther.
Start with Curtis Weaver, who’ll work in a hybrid role of outside linebacker and defensive end – depending on the alignment – after leading the team in sacks and tackles for loss.
Riley Whimpey was growing into a star – finishing third on the team with 55 tackles – before suffering a knee injury late last year. He’s expected to be back, but the corps is more than fine with 233-pound sophomore Zeke Noa – a playmaker on the outside – taking over for Maeva in the middle if 231-pound junior Benton Wickersham doesn’t lock down a spot.
– Durrant Miles is done at one end after doing a nice job of getting into the backfield on a regular basis, but the line is still solid. Getting back 305-pound tackle David Moa after his missed almost all of last year solidifies an already good tackle situation – 287-pound senior Sonatane Lui is a good one on the nose. There should be a good rotation at the other spots with seniors Matt Locher and Chase Hatada two versatile veterans.
– After struggling a bit too much at times and only coming up with six picks as a group, the secondary needs to start doing a whole lot more. Tyler Horton is done at one corner gig, but Avery Williams is a potential all-star talent on the other side after finishing fifth on the team with 49 tackles.
Kekoa Nawahine is back at safety after leading the team with 71 tackles, and Kekaula Kaniho can work at safety or nickel. Throw in the return of DeAndre Pierce – who missed the second half of last season after finishing fourth on the team in tackles in 2017 – and it’s a deep group.
NEXT: Top Players, Keys To the Season, What Will Happen
3. TOP BOISE STATE PLAYERS
Best Boise State Offensive Player
OT Ezra Cleveland, Jr.
Considering the skill spots – at least in the backfield – are in a state of rebuilding and remodeling, the stars of the O are on the left side of the line. John Molchon is an all-star at guard, and the 6-6, 311-pound Cleveland is a special blocker at tackle. Ready to roll as a starter for his third straight season, he’s got the frame and the feet to be hot on the radar of the NFL types. On a line loaded with experience, he’s the main guy.
2. OG John Molchon, Sr.
3. WR CT Thomas, Jr.
4. RB Andrew Van Buren, Jr.
5. WR John Hightower, Sr.
Best Boise State Defensive Player
DE/LB Curtis Weaver, Jr.
Is he a defensive end or a linebacker? Who cares? Turn him loose, let him get to the quarterback, and be happy with the results. A superstar as a freshman, he came up with 11 sacks, 33 tackles, and even returned a fumble for a score. He followed it up by being the team’s most dangerous defensive playmakers with 9.5 sacks, 15 tackles for loss, and 43 stops. If the 6-3, 264-pound veteran isn’t the best defensive player in the Mountain West, he’ll be close – no matter where he works.
2. S Kekoa Nawahine, Sr.
3. CB Avery Williams, Jr.
4. S Kekaula Kaniho, Jr.
5. DT David Moa, Sr.
NEXT: Keys to the Season, Prediction & What Will Happen
2. KEYS TO THE SEASON
Biggest Key To The Boise State Offense
A quarterback has to emerge … fast. How good was Brett Rypien? He not only beat out future NC State star Ryan Finley for the job, but he finished his Boise State career as the 13th greatest passer – at least in terms of yards – in college football history, ending up one spot ahead of some Phil Rivers guy.
Boise State doesn’t have a problem finding quarterbacks, and the question about who the next great Bronco QB will be comes up every few years, but this time around things really do get interesting.
Can it be Chase Cord’s time to step in and star? Is senior Jaylon Henderson really going to be a one-year guy? Is freshman Hank Bachmeier going to be ready right away? That question is the season.
The team has plenty of flaws, but it’s good enough to win the Mountain West, and the schedule is light enough to do more. All it needs is for the passing game to be among the ten most efficient in college football again.
Biggest Key To The Boise State Defense
Pick off a whole lot more passes. The pass defense wasn’t all that tight – allowing 240 yards or more eight times and quarterbacks to complete 63% of their throws – but that’s was mostly because teams had to throw to keep up. The Broncos gave up a touchdown pass or none in nine games, but they struggled way too much to come up with picks.
The defense intercepted a pass in each of the first two games, hit Colorado State with two, and that was about it. The Broncos failed to get one in seven games and came up with a mere seven on the season after generating 15 the year before.
Key Player To A Successful Season
P/K Joel Velazquez, Jr.
Haden Hoggarth turned in a terrific 2017 as the team’s placekicker, but he struggled last year. Velazquez got to try two extra points, and only converted one of them.
The big leg is there, and there’s no real problem on kickoffs, but Velazquez has to grow into a much better punter, a good placekicker, or both.
The punting wasn’t all his fault – the coverage team was lousy and there were two blocked punts – but the Broncos ended up last in the nation in net punting, averaging just 31.71 yards per boot. Other options will emerge for the starting kicking jobs in fall camp, but if the veteran can rock at one of them – particularly punting – the kicking game will be night-and-day stronger.
Key Game To The Boise State Season
at Utah State, Nov. 23
Let’s cut to the chase. Yeah, on any given Saturday there could be an upset somewhere if Boise State isn’t focused … blah, blah, blah. If this is the Boise State team it’s supposed to be, it’s 6-0 in Mountain West play – more on the schedule in the What’s Going To Happen – going into late November, and it’ll be more than good enough to beat Colorado State on the road to close out the regular season.
Beat Utah State in Logan, and the Mountain West title will be on the table, and possible a New Year’s Six Bowl considering the rest of the slate just isn’t that bad.
– Boise State Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
2018 Boise State Fun Stats
– 3rd Down Conversions: Boise State 106-201 (53%) – Opponents 51-164 (31%)
– Time of Possession: Boise State 33:20 – Opponents 26:40
– 1st Quarter Scoring: Boise State 130 – Opponents 41
NEXT: What Will Happen
1. BOISE STATE WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
Boise State passed the status of having to win a conference title or else a long, long time ago.
Last year’s team not only suffered the indignity of losing the Mountain West title at home, it also had its bowl game stopped, cancelled and ignored because of bad weather.
In what could’ve and should’ve been a 12-win season, instead if became the regular old double-digit win campaign for the third year in a row and for fourth time in five seasons.
The program has made greatness seem routine, but it’s still able to come up with great run after great run. With this year’s team, there’s a bit more work to do.
The offensive backfield needs more help, the defensive front could use a few more playmakers, and the kicking game is a massive concern. But it’s not like Boise State hasn’t dealt with big things before and come back just fine.
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 10
There isn’t a game on the schedule that Boise State can’t win. There’s no Fresno State or San Diego State from the West, the hardest Mountain West game until late November is against Hawaii at home, and the non-conference slate is against Florida State, Marshall, Portland State and BYU.
Some of the better Boise State teams of past years would’ve taken one look at this schedule and just assumed 12-0.
Instead, there will be two misfires along the way.
That Florida State game in Jacksonville to start the season isn’t easy, and going to BYU won’t be a picnic.
The late-season dates at Utah State and Colorado State will be tricky, and going to UNLV is tougher than it appears.
So, ho-hum, another ten-win season and another trip the Mountain West Championship.
Even when Boise State rebuilds, it’s still fantastic.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Schedule Analysis
