Preview 2019: Previewing and looking ahead to the Baylor Bears season with what you need to know.
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– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
– Baylor Previews 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2018 Record: 7-6 overall, 4-5 in Big 12
Head Coach: Matt Rhule, 3rd year, 8-17
– CFN Preview 2019: All The Team Previews
5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE BAYLOR OFFENSE
– The Baylor offense wasn’t the Baylor offense of a few years ago, but it started to keep up the pace again, and it took control. While Big 12 teams score in bunches and in a hurry, the Bears were able to dominate the time of possession battle by doing a great job on third downs with a balanced attack that should be even better with eight starters returning.
– The Bears have their guy. QB Charlie Brewer might not get the press of Sam Ehlinger of Texas, and he won’t be a national thing like Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts, but he turned into an ultra-reliable starting Big 12 passer who could more than hold his own against the league’s quarterback heavyweights. Redshirt freshman Gerry Bohanon is a nice backup option, and Jacob Zeno was a good get in the latest recruiting class.
– The running game is more effective than any one back. John Lovett led the team with just 573 yards and six touchdowns, but the 212-pounder averaged well over five yards per carry, as did 205-pound senior JaMycal Hasty. Throw in the return of Trestan Ebner and speedy redshirt freshman Craig Williams, and there’s a good rotation of backs – and Brewer can take off, too.
– Leading receiver Jalen Hurd is done after a successful transformation from a Tennessee running back, but there’s a whole lot of firepower coming back with with almost everyone else of note returning to the receiving corps. Denzel Mims and Chris Platt are home run hitters – Mims led the team with eight touchdowns – and Tyquan Thornton and Marques Jones are good veterans. The skill positions are all terrific, but …
– The offensive line has to hold up its end of the bargain. It was fine for the running game, but it gave up the most sacks and most tackles for loss in the conference. There’s going to be some moving around throughout fall camp to find the right starting five, but senior Sam Tecklenburg is back at center, and 325-pound Johncarlo Valentin is back at right guard. The interior should be okay early on, but the tackles have to be stronger.
NEXT: What You Need To Know About the Defense, Top Players, Keys to the Season, What Will Happen
4. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE BAYLOR DEFENSE
– It might have been a bit of a rough run over the last few years for the Baylor defense, but seven of the top ten tacklers and seven starters are back from a group that wasn’t a rock – the run defense was an issue – but was good enough overall to get by in the Big 12.
– The linebacking corps will be the star with everyone back. Leading tackler Clay Johnston is back at his spot in the middle with 99 tackles, and Jordan Williams is a solid 223-pounder on the weakside coming off a 52-tackle season. 225-pound senior Blake Lynch was fifth on the team with 47 tackles, and sophomore Terrel Bernard is a good rising part of the puzzle at either outside spot. There’s good depth for all three spots, too.
– The Bears are strong up front despite the loss of nose tackle Ira Lewis and decent pass rusher Greg Roberts on the outside. 290-pound James Lynch is a tackle who could work as a 3-4 end – he makes a whole lot of stops – and 330-pound Bravvion Roy is a big factor inside.
JUCO transfer Niadre Zouzoua will work on the outside somewhere, and former Texas A&M transfer James Lockhart will start to do more in the rotation. A pure pass rusher needs to emerge – the hope is that Zouzoua is that – but there are enough good options to play around with.
– The secondary allowed 242 passing yards per game, but that was good enough to finish third in the Big 12 in pass defense. Senior Chris Miller is back at one safety gig after finishing second on the team with 67 tackles, and Henry Black is a reliable option to step in and start to do a whole lot more.
Raleigh Texada returns to one corner after making 32 stops and coming up with two picks, but he’s not all that physical at 5-10 and 176 pounds. It’s a deep overall group of options for the other side with senior Jameson Houston and sophomore Kalon Barnes two decent options.
NEXT: Top Players, Keys To the Season, What Will Happen
3. TOP BAYLOR PLAYERS
Best Baylor Offensive Player
QB Charlie Brewer, Jr.
He’s a smallish 6-1, 206-pounder who just seems to figure out how to get the job done. He can run a little bit, he’s accurate enough, and he doesn’t get rattled in the big situations completing 62% of his passes for 3,019 yards and 19 scores with nine picks, and with 375 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.
The NFL tools might be missing, and his numbers are going to be okay compared to some of the bombers throughout the rest of the Big 12, but he’s been very, very good so far with two years still to go.
2. RB John Lovett, Jr.
3. WR Denzel Mims, Sr.
4. WR Chris Platt, Sr.
5. RB JaMycal Hasty, Sr.
Best Baylor Defensive Player
DT James Lynch, Jr.
The 6-4, 290-pound junior is versatile enough to work inside or out as a perfect 3-4 end who can get into the backfield. While not necessarily an anchor, he’s a tough run defender who came up with 40 tackles and got behind the line with 5.5 sacks and nine tackles for loss for a defense that needs more of a pass rush from several spots.
2. LB Clay Johnston, Sr.
3. CB Raleigh Texada, Jr.
4. S Chris Miller, Sr.
5. LB Jordan Williams, Sr.
NEXT: Keys to the Season, Prediction & What Will Happen
2. KEYS TO THE SEASON
Biggest Key To The Baylor Offense
The offensive line has to do a better job of letting everyone else work. The skill parts are all there with experience, talent, and explosion to keep up with any offense in the Big 12. But they all need time to do what they do.
The offensive line has good parts, and it’s been a process to build it back up, but it gave up 39 sacks and 93 tackles for loss after giving up 38 sacks and 94 tackles for loss in Matt Rhule’s first season.
The margin for error in the deep, good conference is razor-thin. Considering that five of the final eight games were decided by seven points or fewer, slowing down the plays behind the line matter, and …
Biggest Key To The Baylor Defense
Would it kill you to come up with a takeaway? Forcing turnovers was a regular part of the Baylor puzzle, but there were just 11 takeaways in 2017 and a mere ten last season.
Overall, the defense was good enough in the wild and crazy Big 12, but in a league that’s about holding serve, forcing mistakes is a big deal. Last season, the Bears came up with three against Kansas State, and that turned out to be the difference in a 37-34 fight. There were two picks against Texas Tech, and those made an impact in the 35-24 win. But there were just five takeaways in the other 11 games.
The offense didn’t have a big turnover problem, but with the lack of takeaways, the Bears were 0-4 when they finished with a negative turnover margin, and they only had a positive one once – the win over Kansas State.
Key Player To A Successful Season
OT Jake Fruhmorgen, Sr.
The 6-5, 305-pound senior started out his career at Clemson after signing on as a way above-average recruit. He ended up in Waco as a jack-of-all-trades blocking option who could play any of the five positions, but was expected to rise up at a tackle.
Last year he worked in the rotation on the right side, but in his final year, he needs to turn into a solid left tackle for a line that was the worst in the conference in pass protection. It would be a big deal if he showed he could be a set piece of the puzzle in fall camp.
Key Game To The Baylor Season
Iowa State, Sept. 28
It’s the Big 12 opener is against an Iowa State program that’s been an issue for Baylor over the first two years of the Matt Rhule era – the Cyclones won both games in low-scoring fights.
Win this, and with West Virginia, Oklahoma and Texas all in Waco, and with a not-that-horrible conference road slate, it’ll be worth getting excited – not to mention that the Bears will almost certainly start the season 4-0 – for a possible big year.
– Baylor Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
2018 Baylor Fun Stats
– Sacks: Opponents 39 for 241 yards – Baylor 25 for 189 yards
– Fumbles: Baylor 22 (lost 6) – Opponents 10 (lost 3)
– Time of Possession: Baylor 32:41 – Opponents 27:19
NEXT: What Will Happen
1. BAYLOR WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
Head coach Matt Rhule had a rebuilding and rebranding project to do when he took over in 2017 following the school’s disastrous scandal. If he could take the 1-11 2017 team and turn it into a 7-6 bowl winner the following season, can he fix the other glitches to go another step further?
Baylor has all the offensive skill parts in place. There’s depth, there are plenty of options, and if health isn’t an issue, this will be among the Big 12’s best attacks …
If Rhule and the coaching staff can fix an offensive line that allowed way too many plays in the backfield.
The defense is good enough in the Big 12 to get the job done, the linebackers are terrific, and the recruiting classes are building the talent base to make the D one of the league’s best …
If everyone can start to take the ball away.
The kicking game could use a boost from some new parts, the penalties have to slow down, and the D has to avoid getting bombed on like it did in losses to Duke, Oklahoma and West Virginia, but again, these are touchups compared to the gut job the program went through two seasons ago.
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 8
Can the Bears win two more regular season games than they did last year?
They’ll start 3-0 with Stephen F. Austin, UTSA and at Rice to kick things off, and almost all of the big Big 12 games are in Waco.
Beat Texas Tech at home, take down Kansas in Lawrence, and get at least two out of the three home dates against Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa State and West Virginia, and there’s a chance to be in the mix for one of the two spots in the Big 12 Championship.
That’s a bit too ambitious, but the Bears should pull off a few huge home wins and become a bigger conference player. They’ll go bowling, they’ll be fun, and they’ll set the tone for what should be a massive 2020.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
