Preview 2019: Previewing and looking ahead to the Auburn Tigers season with what you need to know.
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– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– What Will Happen, Win Total Prediction
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
– Auburn Previews 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015
2018 Record: 8-5 overall, 3-5 in SEC
Head Coach: Gus Malzahn, 7th year, 53-27
5. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE AUBURN OFFENSE
– It was a strange, strange season for an offense that’s supposed to be among the most dangerous and unstoppable year after year, but it finished 11th in the SEC averaging just 390 yards per game. There were three major explosions, but take out the 179 points scored in wins over Alabama State, Liberty, and Purdue, and the O averaged 22 points per game and only scored more than 30 points against Ole Miss and Arkansas. But it’s going to be better, and why? …
– The offensive line should be stronger. A rocky part of the puzzle throughout last season, the line didn’t do nearly enough for the running game but was okay in pass protection. This time around it’s a veteran bunch that might not be special, and there might not be any superstars, but is loaded with five senior starters. If nothing else, it’s going to be a steadier unit that won’t be a concern. Now the skill guys have to come through.
– The running game sputtered and coughed way too often – it failed to hit the 100-yard mark four times – but JaTarvious Whitlow and Kam Martin are too good not to do far more behind the veteran line. With the good backs, and a good young receiving corps that should have no problems overcoming the loss of the top two targets from last year, and there’s plenty of hope for a more fun overall season from the O as long as the quarterback play is fine.
– Jarrett Stidham was good enough for Bill Belichick, but he wasn’t good enough to be turned loose last year for a passing game that wasn’t efficient enough and finished ninth in the SEC. Stidham might be gone being a New England Patriot, but the quarterback situation is potentially great with super-recruit Bo Nix way too good not to step in and produce right away. If it’s not Nix, prototype talent Joey Gatewood will get the call, with the possibility the both players see playing time.
NEXT: What You Need To Know About the Defense, Top Players, Keys to the Season, What Will Happen
4. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE AUBURN DEFENSE
– The stumbles and misfires on offense overshadowed a solid season from a defense that might have been just par for the course in the SEC, but was good by any other reasonable standard. This year, the D has the upside to be dominant thanks to a killer front four.
DT Derrick Brown could’ve and should’ve been gone to the NFL, but he’s back and should be a lock for All-America honors. The rotation for all of the spots will be fantastic, with Nick Coe, Marlon Davison, and Big Kat Bryant all next-level talents working somewhere on the line – mostly on the outside – and with good 310-pound junior DT Tyrone Truesdall ready to take on a bigger role with the loss of Dontavius Russell.
– The pass defense was more than fine, and now it gets four starters back in a five-man secondary, working around the safety duo of Jeremiah Dinson and Daniel Thomas – the team’s two leading returning tacklers. CB Jamel Dean left early to be a Tampa Bay Buccaneer – that’s going to sting, even with a decent corner situation in place – but Noah Igbinoghene is back at one outside gig and versatile veteran Javaris Davis likely take over Dean’s spot.
– The rest of the defense is in place, but the linebacking corps has to undergo an overhaul with the three top starters – Deshaun Davis, Darrell Williams and Montavious Atkinson – gone. KJ Britt and Chandler Wooten aren’t that big, but they can move. Throw in star freshmen prospects Owen Pappoe and Derick Hall, and this should quietly grow into a good situation behind the talented veteran line.
NEXT: Top Players, Keys To the Season, What Will Happen
3. TOP AUBURN PLAYERS
Best Auburn Offensive Player
QB Bo Nix, Fr.
It’s possible JaTarvious Whitlow blows up from a good back into a special player behind a veteran line, and it’s also possible Joey Gatewood turns his amazing tools and talents into the starting quarterback job. But the 6-2, 207-pound Nix was the special recruit this offseason for a reason.
He might not be big, but he can run, he’s an accurate passer who’s ready from Day One, and he’s the son of former Auburn quarterback Patrick Nix – he knows what he’s doing. In a perfect world, think a more mobile Jake Fromm.
2. RB JaTarvious Whitlow, Soph.
3. PK Daniel Carlson, Sr.
4. QB Joey Gatewood, RFr.
5. OT Prince Tega Wanogho, Sr.
Best Auburn Defensive Player
DT Derrick Brown, Sr.
Really? He didn’t go early into the NFL Draft? The 6-5, 318-pounder is more than ready to be a starter for some next-level team – with the quickness to come up with 4.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss and 48 tackles last season – but he’s back, and in terms of draft position, it was a good decision.
This was an epic year for defensive tackle prospects, but next year Brown is likely the first DT off the board, or close to it. For now, he’s going to be the anchor and star of a killer front four that should be among the nation’s best right out of the box.
2. DE Nick Coe, Jr.
3. DE Marlon Davidson, Sr.
4. S Daniel Thomas, Sr.
5. DE Big Kat Bryant, Jr.
NEXT: Keys to the Season, Prediction & What Will Happen
2. KEYS TO THE SEASON
Biggest Key To The Auburn Offense
Auburn running game, be the Auburn running game. The world was spoiled by Gus Malzahn’s first year as the head man, creating an unstoppable juggernaut of a 2013 running game that only failed to hit 200 yards one in a 14-game season that almost finished with a national title. Fast forward to 2018, and the Tigers only ran for two bills four times.
Not only did Auburn win those four games, they won in blowouts. Okay, so those games were against Alabama State, Ole Miss, Liberty, and in the bowl domination over Purdue, but now the Tigers are 19-1 over the last three seasons when hitting 200. With a new starting quarterback, running well matters more than ever.
Biggest Key To The Auburn Defense
Get off the field. Yes, the offense struggled on third downs, and yes, the attack should be better and it should be stronger at running the ball. Start with that, and several other problems will go away, particularly getting destroyed in the time of possession battle.
The Auburn defense did its part on third downs – allowing teams to convert just 35% of their tries – but when it struggled, there were problems because the offense couldn’t pick up the slack. Early on – with a new quarterback and new starting receivers – the defense will likely have to clean up messes by getting off the field fast.
Last season, the Auburn D allowed teams to convert 40% of their third down tries five times … and went 0-5. The Tigers were 8-0 when keeping teams under 40%. Going back to late 2016, they’re 2-12 in their last 14 games when teams have been able to keep the chains moving at that clip.
Key Player To A Successful Season
WR Seth Williams, Soph.
There isn’t a whole lot of worry about the receiving corps despite the loss of volume possession guy Ryan Davis and top yardage target Darius Slayton, but it means someone else has to rise up and rock as a No. 1 target – especially with a new starting quarterback.
The 6-3, 224-pound Williams had a nice first season, averaging 20.5 yards per catch on his 26 grabs with five touchdown. The faster he’s able to grow into a possible 50-catch playmaker who can also hit the home run, the easier everything else will be for the O.
Key Game To The Auburn Season
Oregon, Aug. 31 (in Dallas)
Obviously there are bigger SEC fish to fry with nasty game after nasty game throughout the conference season, but beating Oregon will be a tone-setter for a good team that could use that early confidence boost. The Ducks will be in everyone’s preseason top ten – possibly top five – and it could be a must-win considering what’s ahead.
Yeah, last year the Tiger win over Washington didn’t mean anything as the season went on, but finishing the regular season 7-5 looked a whole lot better than 6-6. This year, Auburn will probably be the underdog in five games the rest of the way, but beat Oregon, and with Tulane and Kent State ahead, it’ll start out 3-0.
– Auburn Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
2018 Auburn Fun Stats
– 1st Quarter Scoring: Auburn 131 – Opponents 39
– Sacks: Auburn 38 for 256 yards – Opponents 23 for 168 yards
– Rushing TDs: Auburn 25 – Opponents 9
NEXT: What Will Happen
1. AUBURN WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN
Even with some key losses at quarterback, wide receiver, and linebacker, this is a better team … and it might not have the final record to show it.
Bo Nix and/or Joey Gatewood won’t necessarily be a talent upgrade over a guy who might just be the heir apparent to Tom Brady, but the position should get more production than Jarrett Stidham provided last year.
The defensive line is among the nation’s best, the offensive line is loaded with five seniors, and the skills guys are young, fast, and talented.
The new starting linebackers are young, fast, and talented, too, and they’ll shine behind that great line. A few more picks from the secondary would be nice, but it’s going to be a big positive, too, PK Anders Carlson needs to be a bit better, but P Arryn Siposs is a nice punter – the special teams aren’t a concern.
In the other four Power Five leagues, there would be realistic dreams of winning a conference title, but …
Set The Regular Season Win Total At … 8
And here’s the problem.
Oregon is going to be a preseason top ten team. The game against the Ducks is in Dallas.
Florida is going to be a preseason top ten team. The game is in Gainesville, the game against a top-ten caliber LSU team is in Baton Rouge, and the date with a top-15 caliber Texas A&M squad is in College Station.
Auburn will be good enough to win at least two of those, but 1-3 is more likely.
And there’s the game against Mississippi State. And there’s the game against Georgia. And there’s the game against Alabama. All three of those are at home, but those aren’t fun.
Again, the Tigers have the talent and the upside to win their share of the nasty games, but for anyone without this much talent and ability, it’s a 5-7ish schedule, and possibly 4-8 for most average Power Five programs.
Auburn will do just just enough to get to eight wins. This year, grade the Tigers on a curve.
– What You Need To Know: Offense | Defense
– Top Players | Key Players, Games, Stats
– Recruiting Class Analysis | Schedule Analysis
