With National Conference leaders Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah being released after over seven months of detention, there is an air of inevitability to the leader of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Mehbooba Mufti, being released as well. There were expectations that Mr. Omar Abdullah and Ms. Mufti would be released in tandem, but nearly a month after Mr. Omar Abdullah’s release, it is strange that her detention should continue. Ms. Mufti has merely been moved out of a sub-jail into her official residence, where she remains in detention.
New contours
Notably, since they’ve been set free, neither of the Abdullahs has rocked Delhi’s political boat leading to speculation whether there had been some understanding reached prior to their release or whether they are keeping their powder dry following the Gupkar Declaration of August 4, 2019. During that meeting, politicians from across the spectrum, minus those from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), pledged to unite to safeguard the special status and autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir. Perhaps there is fear that Ms. Mufti could queer the pitch when she is unencumbered of her strictures and inconveniently starts harking back to August 5, 2019; after all, she has support among the Jamaat-e-Islami in south Kashmir. There is no doubt that Kashmiris have felt let down by their politicians, and although Ms. Mufti has been self-destructive as a politician, the longer she remains locked up, the more credibility she gains.
Competitive jostling for political space could have an undesirable domino effect as New Delhi struggles to create a new political playing field, the contours of which are becoming clearer now. For one, it would make the going much tougher for New Delhi’s favourite, Apni Party, led by Altaf Bukhari and comprising a motley group of politicians who have defected, resigned or were fired from different political parties. Left alone in the political field, the Apni Party will gain disdain and derision rather than political heft. This must have been a big factor in the rethink on continuing to keep the Abdullahs in detention. The question remains: what will be New Delhi’s road map for Jammu and Kashmir?
A cauldron of resentments
Eight months of sustained lockdown has indubitably left many sections of Kashmiri society crushed economically and otherwise. There is perhaps a cauldron of resentments there, more susceptible than ever before to radical blandishments. Before the novel coronavirus came along, Kashmir’s apple orchards did some business. But all other avenues of income, such as the handicrafts industry, small enterprises, the papier-mâché industry, the carpet industry and tourism, could not have thrived. There was a stranglehold on social media. Broadband as well as mobile Internet services in the region were banned for months. Broadband and 2G Internet were restored in January, but they severely constrain all sorts of community, communication and business activities that normal societies thrive on.
It’s spring in Kashmir, and the security forces confront a situation of increased armed activity. After claiming responsibility for the Kabul Gurdwara attack on March 25 that killed over 25 people, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan Province said that the attack was “revenge for Kashmir.” This mutual reinforcement could turn into a wellspring for the radicalised Kashmiri as well as for Pakistan which is set to get a better grip on Kabul via the Taliban. India temporarily closed two consulates in Afghanistan (Herat and Jalalabad) in the first week of April anticipating growing security threats, among other things. At least two of the five militants who killed para commandos in early April in Kupwara, close to the Line of Control, were local youth from south Kashmir.
The COVID-19 crisis has certainly changed the dynamic of the discourse somewhat. It has given time for the government to prepare the playing field better. Delimitation will be the key. There will be more electoral loading in Jammu, which will take away some of the emphasis from the constituencies in Kashmir, which have espoused separatist sentiments. Yet, delimitation based on the infirmities of the 2011 Census would make less sense than one based on 2021, which has been deferred indefinitely. Elections could happen once the seats have increased from 83 to 90, which gives plenty of time to get the panchayat elections right. The last panchayat elections were a disaster because the mainstream political parties boycotted it. Nearly 12,000 posts were left vacant. This time the government will be keen to ensure more healthy participation.
The road ahead
The rough road ahead looks something like this: if the COVID-19 crisis abates, the Amarnath Yatra will be held from mid-June to end-July, and if the security situation permits, the panchayat elections will be held. Later, the Census will be conducted and delimitation will occur. Following all this, the Assembly elections will take place. All this could take more than a year and a half. Somewhere in the middle of all this dangles the carrot of promised statehood.
Though individual members are popular enough to stand on their own feet in their constituencies, the Apni Party cannot provide an overarching political framework for Jammu and Kashmir. Jammu BJP and Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference chairman Sajjad Lone might add some numbers. The rest the BJP may manage, as it did in Goa, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. It is unclear if the National Conference and the PDP, and others of the Gupkar grouping, if they contest, can come together to deny New Delhi political space. But right now the Kashmiri is a mere bystander as the framework of a new political order is sought to be worked and put in place by New Delhi.
sudarshan.v@thehindu.co.in
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