As she has reminded us through her campaign, Hillary Clinton has 30 years of political experience she may drag over the finish line into the executive office. But her opponent represents a series of unknowable unknowns. Sure, Donald Trump is as well-known as Clinton, but he has chalked up not a single month of political office, and has no track record.
It’s also very hard to work out who his key advisers will be. His campaign is very much a family affair. Much of the Republican establishment has distanced themselves from him – some so far they will be voting for Clinton. It is not clear who his key economic, defence or foreign policy advisers are and 50 former Republican national security advisers publicly declared against him in August. They are unlikely to be summoned back into the State, Defense or Homeland Security departments.
There are also clear policy differences between Trump and his more experienced vice-presidential running mate, Mike Pence. Trump has publicly declared, in a presidential debate, that he disagreed with Pence on Syria. So the prospect that Trump would sit back and let Pence run the executive while he “makes America Great again” looks low.
Both candidates would face challenges governing
Both candidates will face a challenge in terms of how much they could actually do if elected. That will depend on the Congressional arithmetic. But Trump and Pence are short of any of the Capitol Hill experience that can help US presidents get Congress to work. And after such a polarising election, gridlock looks the most likely outcome even for such a seasoned operator as Clinton. That means domestic inaction – but also means that the president may be tempted to focus even more on redefining the US’s international role.
These unknowns will make planning in the UK very difficult
In the run-up to any US election, the British embassy in Washington will try to build contacts to people who are likely to form part of the next administration and try to work out how a new president’s policy positions will affect UK interests.
Most famously Jonathan Powell, who went on to be Tony Blair’s chief of staff, was detailed to get to know the team of a then little-known governor from Arkansas back in 1992. That set the basis for the close relationship between new Democrats and New Labour. Access to the Trump campaign will have been harder.
The National Security Council should have been having discussions on the potential implications of a Trump presidency for Nato, relations with Russia, the Middle East and wider security issues. But they will hang on any post-election words for more concrete indications of a new style of governing. Diplomats will then lobby for an early visit to the US to cement the specialness of the special relationship.
But what will they talk about?
The UK has in the past presented itself as a bridge between Europe and the US. Brexit makes that harder and makes it more likely that presidents will fly direct to Berlin without a London stopover. Trump is much more sympathetic to Brexit Britain than Clinton. At the end of the day, much turns on personal chemistry.
In late 2015, when Trump looked like a joke candidate, threatening to ban Muslims from the US and declaring parts of London a no-go area for police, the top echelons of British government were not quiet on the subject of “The Donald”.
Theresa May, who was home secretary at the time, said she showed that Trump “does not understand the UK and what happens in the UK”. Boris Johnson, then the Mayor of London was more personal, saying the only he wouldn’t visit some parts of New York was “the real risk of meeting Donald Trump.” Meanwhile then prime minister David Cameron said that if Trump came to visit the UK, our country, “I think he’d unite us all against him”.
If Trump wins, two out of three of those senior politicians will be waiting on the tarmac, as prime minister and foreign secretary to greet him. They will just have to hope he doesn’t bear grudges.
This is an edited version of a blogpost published by the Institute for Government.
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