With 10 games and around a quarter of the Premier League season left to run, we can now say that the title race has entered the home straight.
Liverpool and Manchester City remain just one point apart at the top of the table after their home wins against Watford and West Ham respectively.
And it now appears to be a two-horse race. Third-place Tottenham Hotspur are nine points off the top after their defeat at Chelsea on Wednesday night.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side deserve credit. They are still projected to finish with a points total that would have been enough to win the title in six previous Premier League seasons.
But the competitive standard Liverpool and City are setting is difficult to keep up with. For two clubs to set such a pace simultaneously is unprecedented in this top-flight era.
Both are likely to achieve points totals which would be enough to win the league in all but a handful of post-1995 (i.e. 38-game) seasons.
Whichever one of Jurgen Klopp or Pep Guardiola finishes in second place is likely to have managed the Premier League’s best-ever runners-up.
And whether City defend their crown or Liverpool end their 29-year wait for a domestic title will depend in part on how their fixtures fall in these final weeks and months.
By calculating the average points-per-game home and away of each Premier League club this season, we can weigh up the difficulty of their respective run-ins and see where the title may be won and lost.
The run-ins
Liverpool
Current position: 1st
Points: 69
Average home/away points of opponents: 1.27
When comparing the home and away points-per-game totals of Liverpool and City’s remaining opponents, Liverpool’s schedule appears slightly more favourable.
Klopp’s side have now played all of the ‘top six’ away from home following their goalless draw at Old Trafford against Manchester United on Sunday.
And if Liverpool can safely negotiate this weekend’s Merseyside derby - which is a big if - their remaining away days are against bottom-half clubs.
This can be a double-edged sword at this time of the season, as Fulham, Southampton and Cardiff will be fighting for the points required to retain their top-flight status.
Remaining fixtures
03/03 Everton (A)
10/03 Burnley (H)
17/03 Fulham (A)
31/03 Tottenham (H)
05/04 Southampton (A)
14/04 Chelsea (H)
21/04 Cardiff (A)
26/04 Huddersfield (H)
04/05 Newcastle (A)
12/05 Wolves (H)
The trip to Fulham, incidentally, will see Liverpool play while City are busy in FA Cup action, giving Klopp’s side a chance to either open up or gain ground on their rivals.
Rafael Benitez’s Newcastle could well be safe by the penultimate weekend too but taking a result at St James’ Park is not always a cakewalk, as City know well.
At Anfield, visits from Tottenham and Chelsea stand out, though Maurizio Sarri’s men have not fared well on the road to fellow ‘top six’ clubs this season.
Huddersfield ended their long winless streak this week but are still likely to find their trip to Merseyside at the end of April a daunting one and could well be relegated by then.
An improved Burnley will be no pushovers though. Nor will Wolves on the final day, though Liverpool’s excellent home form should breed confidence in Klopp’s ranks.
Manchester City
Current position: 2nd
Points: 68
Average home/away points of opponents: 1.41
City’s remaining fixtures come with two reminders of the last time they vied with Liverpool for a Premier League title.
Guardiola’s side travel to Crystal Palace on the same Sunday afternoon that Liverpool host Chelsea, in a parallel to the decisive day of the 2013-14 campaign.
And if that was not eerie enough, Brendan Rodgers could be given the chance to enact revenge when Leicester City visit the Etihad on the penultimate weekend.
But it is hard not to argue that the key game in the remainder of this title race is likely to be City’s trip to Old Trafford on 24 April.
Remaining fixtures
02/03 Bournemouth (A)
09/03 Watford (H)
30/03 Fulham (A)
06/04 Cardiff (H) *
14/04 Crystal Palace (A)
20/04 Tottenham (H)
24/04 Manchester United (A)
28/04 Burnley (A)
04/05 Leicester (H)
12/05 Brighton (A)
* Subject to change due to FA Cup
The Manchester derby will be City’s most difficult fixture of their run-in, as well as their game in hand over Liverpool, and it is comes in the middle of a challenging spell.
City host Tottenham four days before playing United, then face a tough trip to Burnley four days later. Add in FA Cup and probable Champions League commitments and City’s crucial April suddenly looks hectic.
Liverpool, of course, could be involved in European action as well, though appear less likely to reach the quarter-finals against Bayern Munich than City do against Schalke.
The good news for the champions is that from now until early next month, their schedule appears reasonably straightforward.
Bournemouth have done relatively well at home this season but should be no match, while anything less than nine points against Watford, Fulham and Cardiff will be disappointing.
City will also hope that Brighton are all but on the beach rather than fighting to stay up on the final day. Chris Hughton’s side can be a tough nut to crack at the Amex.
Verdict
It is almost too close to call. The run-ins share two fixtures, with both clubs playing Tottenham at home and Fulham away. The others are all comparable, though City’s trip to Old Trafford would appear to be the most difficult.
Liverpool have the point advantage, the marginally ‘easier’ schedule and are less likely to reach the last eight - or last four - of the Champions League given their evenly-balanced tie with Bayern.
Even so, if City are out in front or level after that testing two-week spell in the middle of April which starts with Crystal Palace away and ends at Burnley, you would favour the champions to see it over the line.
It may be that the race is so tight that non-quantifiables and ‘known unknowns’ - such as the ability to handle pressure, the experience of winning titles or the avoidance of injuries to key players - ultimately makes the difference.
The only certainty is that one excellent team will be crowned champions and another will be disappointed. For the neutral, this could be one of the most memorable title races in recent years.
