The FA Cup traditionally inserts a much-needed break into the giddy rush of league fixtures at this time of year, though on this occasion the Premier League appears to have arrived at a sort of mid-season crux all by itself.
The teams have now played 20 games, just over halfway. Three near or at the bottom have just changed managers. Chelsea’s impressive run of victories has come to an end at a record-equalling 13, giving hope to a chasing pack who were beginning to despair, though the realisation is now setting in that there are six title contenders this season and all are in top form.
Pep Guardiola has just made that point, though he would, wouldn’t he, with his side down to fourth and facing a fight to ensure Champions League qualification for next season. It seems to be a valid one, however, for the top six already seems settled and the leading sides are standing up for themselves instead of standing aside as happened last season.
It is traditional for the English league to regard itself as a little more competitive than others around the globe, with three or four genuine title aspirants instead of the more usual two or three, but this season is set to go beyond the standard hype. Not only are six of the best managers in the world operating at the top end of the Premier League, all their teams are currently playing well.
It might be a stretch to say all six could win the title, but only because of the laughter such a remark would provoke at the Emirates. Arsenal do not win titles any more, surely they at least can be discounted, especially as they have the familiar albatross of Bayern Munich in the Champions League waiting for them next month.
For most of this season Manchester United would not have been taken much more seriously either, but look at them now. Under cover of Chelsea’s attention-grabbing exploits, José Mourinho has supervised six wins in a row to turn transitional, this‑is‑going‑to-take-time United – copyright: Louis van Gaal – into something much more like the original dashing brand of entertainment. There have been spectacular goals at Old Trafford in recent weeks, star players, late recoveries and even evidence that the manager is beginning to enjoy life in Manchester. Mourinho certainly seems to be enjoying himself more than Guardiola right now, possibly because with the gap between the clubs down to three points, City are in his sights.
The reason City are down to fourth and Arsenal out of the Champions League positions is an even better‑timed run from Tottenham, whose deserved victory over Chelsea was their own fifth in a row. It cannot be entirely an accident that Spurs’ best form of the season has come after their Champions League exit and there is a strong temptation to suggest that if they wish to continue their ascent of the Premier League table the best plan might be to ditch the Europa League as early as is feasibly possible.
United are in a similar position. Yes, the Europa League offers the carrot of a Champions League place, but it is a long old road around Europe and Spurs and United appear to be capable of securing a top-four finish by themselves as long as they keep their domestic focus.
Should they bale out of the Europa League early there is a real possibility of the top four places at the end of the season being filled by teams free of Champions League commitments. Goodness knows how unhappy Guardiola would be then. He has spent much of his first season in England emphasising what an advantage it is to Chelsea and Liverpool not to have to play in Europe and should Spurs and United streamline their fixture lists it would place an almost intolerable pressure on Guardiola, who would be virtually alone in the country in seeking or expecting Champions League progress.
Already it is clear that two big teams are going to finish outside the top four this season. Already it is obvious, as Guardiola has pointed out, that games between top-six clubs are going to be crucial. City hired Guardiola because they wanted to make bigger waves in Europe and it would be a shame were that legitimate ambition prove their domestic undoing. This is not a situation he will have encountered when winning titles in Germany and Spain.
Turning away from Europe, although not in the case of the singular Leicester City, the opinion here at the start of the season was that Hull and Burnley would go down, and that Watford might be vulnerable. Watford have looked in good shape for much of the season but have started to wobble of late, with Walter Mazzarri declaring a state of “total emergency”. Burnley have been impressively solid, especially at home, and with 23 points in the bag and eight games at Turf Moor to come they have given themselves every chance of staying up.
Hull still appear on course to go down, for bringing in a manager with no Premier League experience and a limited grasp of English will not strike many as a viable survival strategy for a team at the bottom of the table.
Missing from the early-season calculations was recognition that Crystal Palace and Swansea would find life so hard. Sunderland were expected to struggle but find salvation in at least three other teams proving less defensively organised, which has not proved to be the case either. Palace and Swansea have changed managers and, leaving aside the consideration that the latter would probably have gone for Sam Allardyce had their relegation rivals not nipped in first, the two appointments make an interesting contrast.
As an experienced firefighter Allardyce is widely expected to keep Palace out of trouble, even causing despondency in Sunderland when it became clear a catchable side might be put out of reach, though he is without a win in three games and donating three points to Swansea was out of character. Paul Clement cannot take full credit for that victory, though perhaps his employers deserve some for going for a young English manager who appears capable of keeping up the club’s traditions. Maybe that is being too kind to Swansea, who probably felt they had nowhere else to turn after gambling unwisely on Francesco Guidolin and then Bob Bradley, but if they can follow their managerial appointment with a defensive leader to replace Ashley Williams they still have a chance of escape.
The present bottom three will be clinging to the hope that another team or two drop in before the end of the season. Palace and Middlesbrough look the most likely candidates, though keep an eye on Leicester, who still need a couple of good wins to avoid being sucked into a scrap. Supporters of Watford and West Ham would say the same thing but evidence is required that any club in the relegation zone is capable of climbing out.
