In a perfect world, what would the final day of the Premier League season look like? You’d have two sides going for the title – perhaps three or even four, all playing teams of similar standard and motivation. You’d have maybe six teams contesting the three relegation slots, possibly playing each other, and also a skirmish for European qualification.
Ideally all 10 games would mean something and there should be times over the course of the afternoon when each side have the set of results they need to achieve their aims. And there should definitely be a moment when it becomes apparent that a harassed television presenter has forgotten or overlooked a goal so viewers can mutter furiously at the screen: “For heavens’ sake, that puts Brentford in ninth.”
In reality 10 live games is probably too much to ask – and the disorientating experience of the final night of the Champions League group stage suggests it may be too much to comprehend anyway – but six of Sunday afternoon’s games potentially have something riding on them and one is a bona fide head-to-head, winner-takes-it-all clash.
There has been a lot of talk about this being a poor or an anticlimactic season. While the latter term may be fair with regard to the title race and the relegation battle, the former certainly is not. The title race was in effect over from 18 January, the Saturday when Liverpool won with two late goals at Brentford and Arsenal threw away a two-goal lead at home to Aston Villa. The relegation battle was done once Wolves had brought in Vítor Pereira while Leicester went for Ruud van Nistelrooy and Southampton for Ivan Juric. The most crucial issues were decided early.
But as to the allegation this was somehow a season lacking in quality, it is always worth remembering that multiple themes can be true simultaneously. Arsenal and especially Manchester City have had disappointing seasons by their standards and that meant Liverpool were not challenged as they might have been. Arsenal, having drawn too many games, will finish second for the third season running but having offered less of a challenge than in the previous two years, while City could yet miss out on the Champions League if they lose at Fulham and Newcastle, Chelsea and Aston Villa all win. Equally, none of the three promoted sides ever looked remotely good enough to survive.
It is worth, though, asking why they struggled so much and why City and Arsenal were punished for wobbles. The major reason is probably the general strength of the middle ranks of the Premier League – which is why Liverpool’s consistency deserves more praise than many seemed prepared to give them. Every team from Newcastle in fourth down to Crystal Palace in 12th have had games they will remember fondly and would be more than worthy English representatives in European competition next season.
Bournemouth, for instance, played some exceptional football at times, beating Arsenal (twice), Manchester City and Newcastle. They have a centre-back they have already sold to Real Madrid for £50m and a full-back they look like selling to Liverpool for £40m, yet they go into the final day of the season with no chance of European qualification. There have been times recently when Andoni Iraola, one of those coaches named by Pep Guardiola as shaping the football of the future, has been frustrated by his side’s occasional inability to manage games as he would like, but this has been the greatest season in Bournemouth’s history.
Of the 30 richest by revenue in the world, 14 are Premier League clubs. On the one hand, that suggests the strength of the league and the power of its marketing. But that brings its own problems and highlights perhaps the biggest issue football has, which is that almost no one in authority thinks holistically.
Money for one or two clubs as, say, the Club World Cup will provide, can unbalance a domestic league. One country prospers and others are left behind. The Champions League now – as a competition to be won rather than a generator of cash – essentially exists for four countries plus Paris Saint-Germain, while others scrabble for crumbs that will make them wealthy enough to ensure domination of their domestic leagues.
The standard of almost every side in the Premier League now is exceptional, which is why the three teams promoted from the Championship, almost no matter how well run they are, will face a major challenge to stay up. What Brentford have achieved with the second-lowest wage bill in the Premier League is remarkable, but they are almost uniquely well run. To have even a chance of survival, promoted sides need either a world-leading algorithmic approach to transfers, as Brentford and Bournemouth do, or a manager of rare gifts, such as Marcelo Bielsa (and, perhaps, although he seems rarely thought of in this light, Thomas Frank).
And then there are Nottingham Forest, who have shown that it is possible for a side promoted via the playoffs not only to survive but to prosper, even if it has taken 57 signings with a net spend of £125m over the past three years – and a four-point deduction for breaches of profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) – to do so. Against that, the transfer activity of the side they face on Sunday in what is in effect a straight shootout for Champions League qualification looks almost restrained. Chelsea in the same period have made 42 signings at a net cost of £660m: 99 signings battling it out for Champions League cash feels a perfect symbol of the modern world.
This is where the positive impact of PSR can be seen. Manchester United cannot spend their way out of trouble. If Chelsea lose, they will find ambitions restricted. Forest, meanwhile, could suddenly be elevated, probably not to be regular Champions League qualifiers, but at least to be fairly secure in mid-table, adding further heft to the Premier League’s middle class.
Which is good for the Premier League, and maintains its traditional strength – recently challenged – as a competition of consistent quality that can be won by more than just a couple of super-clubs. But at the same time, there are consequences for the rest of the pyramid and for the rest of Europe and the world.
