qualifying tie against Aberdeen at Pittodrie. Photograph: Ian MacNicol/Getty Images
Guardian writers’ predicted position: 11th (NB: this is not necessarily Paul Wilson’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)
Last season’s position: 7th
Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 750-1
“It might be, we don’t know yet,” was Sean Dyche’s response to the question of whether last season’s seventh place might be the best Burnley could realistically achieve. “Seventh isn’t the highest possible, but it might be the highest probable. Theoretically the possibilities are endless, we all saw that when Leicester blew the roof off, but I think the top six are now very powerful. Probably it is difficult to go beyond seventh in this division when you are us, and a number of other clubs could say the same. But you never know. When I came here none of this was envisaged.”
Typically, the Burnley manager is being modest and mildly boastful at the same time. While the Clarets advancing into Europe was not quite a shock on the scale of Leicester winning the Premier League it was clearly one of the most surprising achievements of last season, no matter how long the present Europa League adventure lasts. To put the club’s improvement from relegation candidates (in most people’s mind) to ‚“best of the rest” into a proper perspective, Manchester City set a new Premier League points record of 100 in winning the title last season. Thirteen of the clubs in the top flight failed to manage half that number. Those that did get across the halfway line were the rest of the top six and Burnley, who memorably opened their campaign with a defeat of defending champions Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
Dyche spent part of last season being linked with vacant positions at Leicester and Everton as a result of Burnley’s steady progress in the league. No business resulted, so for now he remains the league’s most successful English manager at a club he could be close to outgrowing. Not that Dyche ever complains about the situation at Burnley. Privately he might feel frustrated that the top six default is to look abroad for their managers, while jobs at the bigger and more established clubs that would allow a better platform to attack the European elite remain elusive, but Burnley’s growth in the last half a dozen seasons is there for all to see.
It is not just a matter of taking on and beating some of the biggest names in the Premier League, the club have invested in their infrastructure and training facilities to impressive effect so that any small-town stigma that might have held Burnley back in the past has largely disappeared. Dyche claims he is not quite where he wants to be yet and he will not be happy until Burnley are recognised as an accepted part of the Premier League landscape and not a group of over-achievers perennially pushing their luck, yet in terms of signing players that distinction disappeared some time ago. The capture of players such as Jack Cork, Jeff Hendrick and Aaron Lennon showed that Burnley offered as good a prospect of top-flight stability as any of the teams around them. Several players let it be known they were impressed with both the facilities at the club and the relaxed atmosphere at the training ground, and when you have been in the Championship as recently as three seasons ago word of mouth recommendation from player to player is a sure sign that you have arrived.
One of Dyche’s trademarks is that he prefers to work with a smallish squad, so as to keep everyone involved. Naturally that suits a club of Burnley’s limited means, though even within the financial framework the manager has a reputation for playing the same team every week if at all possible.
Clearly change is necessary if the results fall away and the team keeps losing, though that was not a problem that afflicted Burnley last season and Dyche was more or less able to keep fielding the same winning team. Yet when change became inevitable, such as when goalkeeper Tom Heaton injured his shoulder early in the campaign or when defender Michael Keane was sold to Everton, what was impressive was the quality of the reserves ready to step up. Nick Pope deputised for Heaton in goal and had such a good season he made it to the World Cup. James Tarkowski came in at centre-half for Keane and played so well hardly anyone noticed the difference.
So Dyche’s parsimonious methods appear to work, even if the six clubs ahead of him in the league all have much bigger squads and more alternatives at their disposal to cope with the demands of European football. Yet this season Burnley are attempting to take on Europe too, and whereas the tendency in the past has been for smaller clubs to bulk up their numbers in anticipation of an arduous Europa League campaign, Dyche has stuck firmly to the approach he has tried and tested. Even though a couple of stalwarts in Scott Arfield and Dean Marney have been released, Burnley failed to bring in a single extra player in advance of their Europa League qualifying tie against Aberdeen, the first leg of which, at Pittodrie, ended 1-1 last Thursday.
While Dyche occasionally resembles Blackadder’s Captain Rum – “Opinion is divided on the subject [of whether a ship needs a crew]. All the other captains say you do, and I say you don’t” – he is understandably reluctant to alter the dynamic of a system that has proved its worth. With another two qualifying rounds beyond Aberdeen to reach the group stage, there is no guarantee that Burnley will need extra players in any case. On the other hand, by the time the extent of progress is known, the transfer window will have closed.
Dyche does not appear to be overly concerned. He has a couple of long-term targets in mind for the present window – possibly Sam Clucas and Jay Rodriguez – and says he is more concerned about landing those than bringing in squad players just to swell numbers for the Europa League. The Premier League, as ever, remains the club’s clear focus. Few clubs were more clearly focused last season and though it remains to be seen whether seventh place can be matched or bettered, for the first time since Burnley returned to the top flight under Dyche they have earned the right to be considered stayers rather than relegation strugglers.
Dyche is fond of pointing to the example of Leicester as proof that anything is possible, though since the unexpected events of 2015-16 the top six have spent prodigiously to ensure nothing similar happens again. Burnley are never going to join that party, in many ways it is unfair even to expect it of them, yet hopefully they can continue to give the lie to the depressing notion that there is no fun and excitement to be had outside the top six. Even if the trophy cupboard is bare, Burnley can count themselves among English football’s biggest achievers.
