Guardian writers’ predicted position: 18th (NB: this is not necessarily Barry Glendenning’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)
Last season’s position: 3rd (Championship)
Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 5,000-1
Soon after masterminding victory over Middlesbrough in the play-off final to steer Norwich into the Premier League, Alex Neil announced he would “need to add quality to the squad” but confirmed he was planning to “stick with the hardcore group who have got us up”. Considering much of this hardcore group is identical to the one who brought Norwich down a season previously, their chances of avoiding the drop will probably hinge on the quality of their summer acquisitions.
The full-back Andre Wisdom has come in from Liverpool on loan. The central midfielder Youssouf Mulumbu looks a fine import from West Brom and the loan move of his more creative former Baggies team-mate Graham Dorrans has been made permanent. The left-sided midfielder, occasional full-back and set-piece supremo Robbie Brady has joined from Hull City. They are all decent mid- to lower-end top-flight players but in the trenches where Norwich look likely to spend much of their season, it is hard to see past Mulumbu as the only dependable partner.
At 28 years of age, this tireless grafter with a vast amount of Premier League experience has plenty left in the tank and could well have his best years to come. Alongside him, Dorrans has invariably flattered to deceive but resurrected his career under Neil during a loan spell in the back end of last season. Can he keep his mojo going? Only time will tell, but the omens are good. “Working with the gaffer has been incredible,” Dorrans said. “I’ve worked with some great managers, like Roy Hodgson and Roberto Di Matteo but I’m looking forward to extending this work with the manager and learning from him.”
Short of the obligatory screamers from Mulumbu’s midfield partner Alex Tettey, it is difficult to see where goals will come from. While his work ethic as leader of the line cannot be faulted, Cameron Jerome has yet to prove his worth as anything other than a good Championship goal-getter, while Ricky van Wolfswinkel’s first season as a top-flight Norwich striker could scarcely have been more disastrous.
Having failed to pull up too many trees on loan at St Etienne last season in Ligue 1, the Dutchman is back at Carrow Road and may yet come good depending on the service provided by Jonny Howson and Wes Hoolahan. In the heart of defence – a huge source of concern for Norwich fans as they approach the new season – Sébastien Bassong and Russell Martin, moved from right-back, were the first-choice pairing last season, with Ryan Bennett and Michael Turner, until he was loaned out to Fulham, providing cover. Given the high line favoured by Neil, they could struggle against some of the more formidable and speedy teams.
Much, of course, will hinge on the relatively unknown quantity that is Neil and the sweetness of the tune he can get from a squad of players that currently looks poorly equipped for survival. Brought in from Hamilton Academical in the Scottish Premiership in January, Neil’s appointment could scarcely have left Norwich fans more underwhelmed. Having won 17, drawn five and lost only three of his 25 matches thus far, there seems little more the 34-year-old could have done to earn their trust for the season ahead.
Unlike his fellow thirtysomething managers Garry Monk and Eddie Howe, Neil has yet to welcome reporters behind the scenes to survey the finer points of his training ground methods and – in the case of Monk’s Swansea – new-age inflatable porta-beds. There is no reason why he should but it would be interesting to see how his methods compare and discover if he is as obsessive, hard-working and diligent as fellow managerial whelps who appear to think nothing of regularly putting in 16-hour days. “I do my own thing,” says Neil. “I have ways that I want things to be done. I do what I think is right and go with it.”
Results suggest he is right to trust his instincts, while ringing endorsements and the successful manner in which he steered his side through a brief speed wobble en route to promotion and through the play-offs give every indication that, whatever his methods, Norwich’s players have bought into them. “Good quality players can achieve anything and I give them clear guidelines,” says Neil. “If they do it they will get success, I’m sure of it.”
There is a lot to be said for managers improving the players they already have through coaching, rather than splurging on the transfer market, but on paper alone Norwich City’s squad looks ordinary. It is, however, worth noting they are certainly not alone in that regard: three pretty dreadful Premier League teams avoided the drop last season, while five decidedly average ones secured between 40 and 50 points. Somebody has to occupy the bottom three places come season’s end but Sunderland, Newcastle and Aston Villa have proved this is not a league that takes a huge amount of staying in.
In terms of giving the club a gentle re-introduction to Premier League life, the random fixture generator could scarcely have been more kind. Kicking off with a home match against Crystal Palace, the Canaries will not face any team from last season’s top five in their opening 10 games. They may have already established a reasonably firm foothold on their top-flight perch before arriving at Manchester City’s Etihad Stadium on the final day of October. Alternatively, the jig may already look up.
