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USA Today Sports Media Group

Sport

Doug Farrar

Predicting where the top 21 free agents will sign

Every year in free agency, there are teams spending millions of dollars on players who may be physically gifted, but don’t fit the teams’ paradigms for any number of schematic, physical, or personal reasons. The best teams locate the kinds of players they need, gauge the market correctly, and strike when the time is right. With that in mind, let’s predict the locations for the top 21 free agents of the 2019 league year.

1. DL Trey Flowers: Cleveland Browns

Can you imagine Flowers lining up on Cleveland’s defensive line with Myles Garrett on the other side and the criminally underrated Larry Ogunjobi in the middle? I’m sure the Browns can, and with over $81 million in cap room, that could take on Flowers’ well-earned large contract numbers and barely sneeze over it. Though most players on either side of the ball tend to struggle comparatively when they leave the schematic comforts of Foxboro, Flowers, who put up 11 sacks and 78 total pressures last year, has the skill set to play at a high level no matter where he goes.

2. S Earl Thomas: Dallas Cowboys

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

It’s about the worst-kept secret in the world that Thomas, a Texas alum, would love to play for the Cowboys. He’d be reuniting with former Seahawks defensive coordinator Kris Richard, and current Dallas defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli is as smart as anyone when it comes to deploying his defenders for optimal success. Not that you need a bachelor’s degree in football to figure out what to do with Thomas—as long as he’s healthy, you put him in the back third of your defense and let him shut down every receiver trying to test the deep third. Thomas’ injury issues over the last few seasons may drive down his price a bit, but he’s the best safety on the market.

3. QB Nick Foles: Jacksonville Jaguars

With Foles, the question is always going to be, which version are you getting? Is it the guy who wrangled the Lombardi Trophy away from the Patriots in Super Bowl LII and became the game’s Most Valuable Player along the way, or is it the guy who looked crushingly average with the Eagles in 2014 or the Rams in 2015? One advantage to Foles signing with the Jaguars is that he’d be working once again with John DeFilippo, the offensive coordinator who was quarterbacks coach when Foles helped the Eagles win that Super Bowl. Foles is as scheme-dependent as any quarterback in the NFL today, but the Jaguars are on the verge of wasting a great defense and high-level power running game with Blake Bortles under center. Foles could only be an improvement, and he doesn’t preclude Jacksonville drafting a developmental quarterback for the future.

4. S Landon Collins: Indianapolis Colts

Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus did a great job in his first season, so let’s give him a great strong safety/linebacker who will patrol the field on short and intermediate routes and give the Colts a serious thumper in the run game. Collins isn’t the ideal deep third free safety, but to debit him for that is like debiting Richard Sherman in his prime because he wasn’t a great slot cornerback. Coaches have to understand which players give them the best chance to win, and with Malik Hooker expected to be fully over the knee injury he suffered in 2018, Indy would have one of the most dominant free/strong safety duos in the NFL if they can acquire Collins. With a league-leading amount of cap space—over $102 million—they certainly have the wherewithal to make it happen.

5. LB C.J. Mosley: Pittsburgh Steelers

It was a surprise when the Ravens decided to move on from Mosley, one of the more fluid linebackers in the NFL over the last five seasons. He’s a rock star in coverage, he’s averaged over 1,000 snaps per season throughout his career, and he’s a stop machine against the run. The Steelers have had a desperate need for such a linebacker since Ryan Shazier’s injury, and though they may well find Shazier’s replacement in the draft, Mosley would be a plug-and-play solution for a defense in transition.

6. RB Le’Veon Bell: Indianapolis Colts

Don’t be surprised if the Colts back up the Brinks truck in free agency and pick off more than one high-caliber free agent. The Colts have a decent running back rotation led by Marlon Mack, but the also have an offensive line good enough to feature Bell’s patient style to its highest level. And Andrew Luck would love to have a running back with Bell’s acumen as a receiver. Missing the 2018 season due to contract issues with the Steelers may not help his reputation among fans, but it does subtract mileage from his body—always a key point of interest for running backs. Bell is more of a wild card than general manager Chris Ballard prefers, but the potential production could outweigh those concerns.

7. S Adrian Amos, Jr.: Denver Broncos

An excellent cover safety with equal facility against the run, Amos thrived in Vic Fangio’s Bears defense. Now that Fangio is Denver’s head coach, and the Broncos have released safety Darian Stewart, it would be an optimal time for a reunion. Amos’ presence would allow fellow safety Justin Simmons to focus on developing his coverage abilities, which Fangio’s presence will presumably help as well.

8. CB Bryce Callahan: Washington Redskins

When Washington traded Kendall Fuller to the Chiefs in the Alex Smith deal, they didn’t just lose one of the best slot defenders in the NFL—they also went into the 2018 season without a real plan to replace him. To move on from what was an unfortunate series of slot snaps with Fabian Moreau, Washington should grab Callahan, who’s been one of the most adept slot cornerbacks of his era. One of the most consistent cornerbacks at any position, Callahan is particularly good at adjusting to two-way goes and option routes. He’d bring a ton to Washington’s defense.

9. WR Golden Tate: New England Patriots

Speaking of option routes, no NFL team runs more of them than the Patriots, and few receivers have become better at them than Tate. Through his recent seasons in Detroit and Philly, Tate has been a remarkably productive and consistent receiver both outside and in the slot. He’d add both vertical ability and toughness on underneath routes to a New England passing game that could use a bridge from Julian Edelman to Rob Gronkowski.

10. CB Ronald Darby: New York Jets

The Jets have the second-most cap room in the league coming into free agency, and they have a ton of holes to fill. The secondary is still an issue despite spending a ton on Trumaine Johnson and hoping that Morris Claiborne would help out. Darby has had injury issues, but when he’s healthy, he can be one of the league’s better cover cornerbacks. He’d be a nice fit in Gregg Williams’ multiple overages.

11. S Lamarcus Joyner: San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh have been trying to get the safety position right for a long time, to no avail. Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt and a seeming cast of thousands have done their level best in stationary and hybrid roles, but more consistency is needed. Joyner wasn’t as effective in 2018 as he was the year before, but allowing two touchdowns on 26 targets in 684 coverage snaps puts him ahead of the pack against anyone currently wearing a 49ers uniform. Joyner can play deep credibly, but he’s even better as an intermediate pass defender who can also clean up run plays.

12. OG Rodger Saffold: New York Jets

(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

For the Jets last season, nether left guard James Carpenter nor right guard Brian Winters played at the top of their game, and Winters was a particular liability in pass protection. Carpenter will likely land somewhere else this offseason, leaving a massive hole on the left side. Few guards in the league seem better qualified to fill that void than Saffold, who has become a top-level player in Sean McVay’s offense. He allowed three sacks and 29 total pressures in 1,277 snaps last season, and though he has his ups and downs as a run-blocker, he’s fine there too when he keeps his technique together.

13. DL Ndamukong Suh: Oakland Raiders

The Rams will let Suh test the free-agent market to see if there’s another NFL team thinking that he’ll be the dominant force he was early in his career. He isn’t, but over the last few years, Suh has become a reliable and versatile defensive lineman. He’s developed his run defense admirably, and in Wade Phillips’ defense last season, he put up 58 total pressures while playing everywhere from nose tackle to big end. The Raiders have both cap room and a head coach who likes big names. As such, the Raiders might give Suh one last big payday, and he could reward them with a couple more above-average seasons.

14. DT Sheldon Richardson: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over the last two seasons, Richardson has played in two of the best four-man defensive fronts in the NFL—Seattle’s and Minnesota’s – and he has shown what he’s still capable of when he’s not misused as an off-ball linebacker as he was late in his career with the Jets. So, wouldn’t it be interesting if Richardson ended up reunited with Todd Bowles, the Jets’ head coach from 2015 through 2018, who did coach Richardson through a seven-sack, 55-pressure season in 2015? The Bucs need help along their defensive line, and Richardson could excel in Bowles’ hybrid fronts as he once did. Just play him inside where he belongs, Coach.

15. C Matt Paradis: Baltimore Ravens

With Lamar Jackson as their quarterback, the Ravens are obviously going with a run-first offense that incorporates option passing concepts. To do that at the level they’d like, consistency along the offensive line is a must, and Matt Skura struggled after Ryan Jensen left in free agency for Tampa Bay and the undrafted free agent started at center in a pinch. Paradis lost half his 2018 season to a foot injury, but when healthy, he’s an excellent center for both pass- and run-blocking. In over 4,000 NFL snaps, Paradis has allowed just six sacks, which is even more remarkable when you consider Denver’s quarterback rotation through most of that time.

16. OT Ja’Wuan James: Houston Texans

Where do the Texans need help along their offensive line? Well, where don’t they? Deshaun Watson was pressured on a league-leading 44.7% of his dropbacks in 2018, and while he ran himself into a few situations, the line was obviously the primary problem. Second-year man Julie’n Davenport was the primary offender, as he led all offensive tackles with 67 total pressures and 16 penalties. Only Raiders left tackle Kolton Miller allowed more sacks than Davenport’s 12, and that shouldn’t even count because Miller was a rookie coached by Tom Cable. Adding James to the mix at right tackle would provide a serious upgrade. Not that James is the best right tackle in the business, but he’s far better than anything the Texans are rolling out, and they’d better do something to protect Watson’s front side before the poor guy gets vaporized one too many times.

17. LB Shaquil Barrett: Los Angeles Rams

The Rams tried to solve their issues at edge rusher with an October trade with the Jaguars for the services of Dante Fowler, Jr. It went okay as these things go—Fowler put up four sacks and 30 total pressures for the Rams from Week 9 through Super Bowl LIII—but with Fowler and now Ndamukong Suh hitting the market (Los Angeles used Suh as a big end from time to time), there’s more to be done, even if Sean McVay’s team decides to bring Fowler back. Barrett would be an excellent fit in Wade Phillips’ defense because he has the ability to bring pressure with everything from an inside counter to a bull rush. An underrated talent during his time in Denver, Barrett would be a perfect schematic fit for Wade Phillips.

18. S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix: Philadelphia Eagles

Between age, injury, and free agency status, the Eagles need to take a look at their safety rotation for the next few seasons. Corey Graham is a free agent, and he probably had the best season of any Eagles safety in 2018. Malcolm Jenkins was up and down last season, and he’s locked into a lot of money right now. Adding another veteran safety for minimal positional cost would be ideal, and Clinton-Dix could be the perfect fit. The former Packer, who was traded to Washington mid-season, has struggled with consistency at times, does have legitimate playmaking ability. And in two games against the Eagles last season, Clinton-Dix allowed three catches on four targets—for just 22 yards.

19. WR Tyrell Williams: Cleveland Browns

The Browns are once again in need of dynamic targets around Baker Mayfield, especially with new head coach Freddie Kitchens and offensive coordinator Todd Monken ostensibly drawing up one of the NFL’s most wide-open passing games. Last season, Breshad Perriman, Jarvis Landry, and Rasard Higgins tried to be deep threats, with mixed results. Williams is an underrated deep receiver who lit it up through his time with the Chargers, and he could certainly do the same in Cleveland. Adding him to the mix would round out a receiver group that could be sneaky good in 2019.

20. OT Trent Brown: New England Patriots

Brown is the only player on this list we’re signing with his 2018 team, but it makes sense for a number of reasons. Brown thrived at left tackle in New England’s quick passing game—in his three years with the 49ers, he struggled at times with conditioning and consistency. Factor in the truism that most players tend to regress when they leave the Patriots, it seems like an ideal match once again. If so, 2018 first-round pick Isaiah Wynn, who missed his entire rookie season with a torn Achilles tendon, might kick inside to guard. If not, Wynn might get Brown’s old spot.

21. DB Tyrann Mathieu: Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks need help at a few positions in the secondary they’re trying to mold into the second Legion of Boom. They haven’t credibly replaced Richard Sherman or Kam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas is unquestionably not coming back. Justin Coleman is an excellent slot man, but he’s also a free agent. When there are this many holes to be filled with developmental players, teams should find as many versatile veterans as possible. Mathieu certainly fits that description—through his career with the Cardinals and Texans, he’s played everywhere from outside cornerback to slot defender to deep safety. Mathieu isn’t quite the defender he once was, and he still gambles too often, but he would provide experience and athleticism to a secondary looking to redefine itself.

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