There are all kinds of reasons players end up on new teams in free agency. The best reason, of course, is that a front office and a group of coaches will correctly estimate that the player fits perfectly in the new team’s set of schemes and concepts. Other teams prefer to take their existing cap space, throw stuff against the wall and see if anything sticks. No matter the reason, here’s where we think the top 21 players in the upcoming free-agent class will land.
This list doesn’t include players who have been given the franchise tag by their current teams, although those moves can lead to sign-and-trade deals — in the case of Jacksonville Jaguars edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue, that scenario seems especially possible. And with Drew Brees saying that he’s coming back to the Saints and reportedly willing to take a below-market deal to do so, he’s off the list as well. These are the top 21 potential free agents at this point, and where we think they will land based on positional need, player value and team cap flexibility.
Tom Brady: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It sounds crazy to some, but there’s no guarantee that Brady will be back with the Patriots after 20 fairly successful seasons. Following a frustrating 2019 campaign in which he struggled with timing and accuracy with receivers who couldn’t consistently gain separation, Brady fell short of the Super Bowl despite a Patriots defense that was one of the best in recent memory. One might assume the Patriots can improve that situation in the offseason, but what if Brady is simply looking for a change of scenery? He would require a team that is on a championship curve minus the quarterback, a group of receivers who can beat coverage and an offensive play-designer who can match Brady’s remaining talents with the right scheme.
The Buccaneers come in with a check-check-check scenario. Todd Bowles coordinated a defense that rose from dead last to fifth overall in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted metrics. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are one of the NFL’s most formidable receiving duos, and if you can get Bruce Arians to use his tight ends in the passing game, there’s the dynamic duo of Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. When matching Brady and Arians together, as some observers have tried to do based on this Tampa Bay Times report that the Bucs are “all in” on the idea of Brady, many will cite Arians’ preferred deep passing attack and Brady’s supposedly dead arm. Well, last season, even with an underwhelming group of targets, Brady still completed 26 of 67 passes of 20 or more air yards for 749 yards, with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Plus, Arians’ passing game is more than just a bunch of go routes — think more of three levels to the quarterback’s front side, and quick bailout routes to the back side.
So, when you consider alternate accommodations for Tom Brady, Tampa Bay is definitely one destination to consider.
Dak Prescott: Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys haven’t put the franchise tag on Prescott yet — they have offered him a contract paying around $33 million per year, according to ESPN’s Todd Archer, which would rank him among the NFL’s highest-paid quarterbacks. If that doesn’t work, Dallas absolutely will use the franchise tag on him, which would present a one-year hit of $26.895 million based on the 2020 tag amount for quarterbacks. Either way, he’s staying put.
Anthony Harris: Dallas Cowboys
It’s entirely possible that even with $74,268,123 in current cap space, the Cowboys won’t be able to retain all their priority free agents. In fact, when that group includes quarterback Dak Prescott, wide receiver Amari Cooper and cornerback Byron Jones, the likelihood of Dallas not getting outbid on two of the three (let’s be real, there’s no way they’re letting Prescott out of the building) becomes a far more present possibility.
Jerry and Stephen Jones could replace Byron Jones and Cooper through the draft, as the cornerback and receiver classes are fairly stacked. If there’s money left over, it might be time to address the need at safety. If that’s the case, how about the only player in the NFL with seven interceptions and no touchdowns allowed last season? At age 28, Harris elevated himself into one of the league’s best at his extremely critical position, and pairing him with Xavier Woods in the safety room would give new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan and defensive backs coach Maurice Linguist all kinds of interesting options. Spotrac estimates Harris bagging a contract in the five-year, $70 million realm, but if Dallas fails to retain its own free agents, the team conceivably could afford that.
Jadeveon Clowney: Miami Dolphins
If word is true that Clowney wants a deal in the range of $22 million to $23 million per year … well, the six-year veteran may be in for a bit of a market adjustment. That kind of deal would make Clowney the highest-paid defensive end in football, and the second-highest-paid edge-rusher behind Khalil Mack, which is a lot for a guy who has never recorded 10 sacks in a season. Obviously, sack numbers aren’t the ultimate arbiter when it comes to the effectiveness of pass-rushers, but Clowney has never put up more than 64 pressures in a season. To put that in perspective, Green Bay’s Za’Darius Smith led all edge-rushers last season with 104. So, Clowney will have to decide between a team with a whole lot of money that desperately needs pass-rushing credibility and a team with less cap to spend and greater championship-level aspirations.
If it’s the former, why not the Dolphins? Miami currently has a league-leading $87,850,174 in cap space, and although the Dolphins have needs up and down their roster, signing a player with Clowney’s talent and potential would be a big boost to their defense. Alternatively, the Dolphins could prefer to address their pass-rushing needs in the draft or with less-expensive veterans. Either way, it’s unlikely Clowney will get an overwhelming payday.
Derrick Henry: Tennessee Titans
People will tell you that running backs don’t matter in the modern NFL, but the Titans might beg to differ. While Mike Vrabel’s team was undergoing a quarterback transition from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill last season, it was Derrick Henry, more than anybody else, who carried the team to the AFC Championship Game. Henry had been a decent player through his first three seasons since the Titans selected him in the second round of the 2016 draft, but he blew up for 303 carries for 1,540 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns in the 2019 regular season — leading the NFL in each of those three categories — and added 83 carries for 446 yards and two more touchdowns in three postseason games. As Pro Football Focus points out, Henry’s 1,605 rushing yards after contact were almost 500 more than the closest pursuer at the position, and his 4.16 yards per carry after contact was the best number among backs with more than 100 carries. Also, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell all averaged fewer total yards per carry than Henry did after contact per carry.
There are fungible backs, and there are irreplaceable entities at any position. Henry proved to be irreplaceable at his position in 2019, and while he might be disappointed in his payday because of the vagaries of his position, it’s difficult to see the Titans letting him go.
Byron Jones: New York Giants
Last season, the Giants had cornerback problems as few other teams did. Five cornerbacks played anywhere from 71 to 552 coverage snaps for the team in 2019, and none of them recorded an interception. Those five corners combined to allow 14 touchdowns, though. Among the things Big Blue needs to be competitive once again — and it’s a long list — this may be the most obvious. The hope is that 2019 rookie DeAndre Baker will improve, and when you give up eight touchdowns to no interceptions and an opponent passer rating of 130.9, there’s nowhere to go but up.
If the Cowboys are unable to re-sign Jones because they’re dealing with other big-ticket players, the Giants should jump on the idea of signing Jones with a quickness. Jones doesn’t have an interception in his past two seasons, but per PFF, he has the the fourth-best forced incompletion rate of any NFL corner over that span and fifteen pass breakups. He’s a great and experienced player at a desperate position of need, and as impulsive as Giants general manager Dave Gettleman generally is, Gettleman should focus that characteristic on Jones.
Amari Cooper: Indianapolis Colts
We don’t know what the Colts will do with their quarterback situation. Standing pat with Jacoby Brissett probably isn’t going to happen, based on recent comments from head coach Frank Reich and general manager Chris Ballard. Maybe it’s a development plan for Brissett behind a veteran pickup such as Philip Rivers; maybe it’s somebody in the draft. No matter what the Colts’ long-term post-Andrew Luck plan is, it’s also true that Reich and Ballard will have to give their quarterback more receiving options. Last season, T.Y. Hilton led the team with 45 catches, which is a team-leading number you’d expect in 1973. Zach Pascal and Parris Campbell have potential, but outside of a healthy Hilton, there are no alphas in this group.
Adding Cooper, who might find his way out of Dallas in a salary pinch, would do wonders for whomever that quarterback may be. He’s one of the most nuanced route-runners in the league, and he can beat man and zone coverage both outside and in the slot. Spotrac estimates that Cooper will find a new contract in the $20 million per year range; the Colts have $85,935,255 in current cap room and the need for another receiver to take them nearer to championship potential.
Ryan Tannehill: Tennessee Titans
When Tannehill took the Titans’ starting job from an ineffective Marcus Mariota in Week 7, the veteran had thrown 123 touchdowns and 75 interceptions in a decent, but hardly sparkling six-year tenure with the Dolphins. But something clicked between Tannehill and Tennessee offensive coordinator Arthur Smith (who belongs on your short lists of future head coaches). The Titans were 2-4 after Mariota’s last start, having scored seven total points in their previous two games. They then finished the season 9-7 and made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game with Tannehill, who led the league in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, yards per completion, net yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt and passer rating.
The Titans can’t worry about whether Tannehill was a one-year wonder in Smith’s offense — the tape shows that he wasn’t. They need to double down on him as their franchise quarterback, because he’s finally proven he can be one.
Philip Rivers: New England Patriots
This picture of Bill Belichick and Philip Rivers is from January 2019, and a lot of water has flowed under the bridge in the past year. But before you cast this idea out as insanity, here’s a sample of what Belichick has had to say about the now former Chargers quarterback:
“He’s really good at everything. He’s very accurate on the deep ball, sees coverages well, sees matchups well, goes to the right place, throws the ball accurately. He’s a big, strong guy that can stand in the pocket and handle himself with guys around him. He does a good job at the line of scrimmage of controlling the offense, the protection. Obviously, the offense runs through him and he does a good job of getting the Chargers either into good plays or out of bad plays, however you want to look at it. Obviously, his durability and his consistency – I mean, the guy has started over 200 straight games. That’s pretty impressive. He does everything well.”
So if Tom Brady leaves the Patriots, would it make sense for the Patriots to take a chance on the idea that they can reclaim the relatively mistake-proof version of Rivers as they groom a younger quarterback over time? New England’s passing game is one of the league’s most complicated, and given Belichick’s admiration for Rivers’ acumen, there are stranger ideas.
Joe Thuney: Tennessee Titans
Despite the Titans’ offensive turnaround from the second half of the 2019 regular season through the playoffs, the team’s guard situation was … well, fraught. Left guard Rodger Saffold allowed six sacks and 24 pressures last season, right guard Nate Davis was good for eight sacks and 27 pressures, and swingman Jamil Douglas gave up three sacks and 16 pressures. Not ideal. Thuney, on the other hand, has given up just one sack and 43 total pressures over the past two seasons for the Patriots, and he’s never allowed a postseason sack. Thuney would probably have to move from left to right guard, as Saffold is the incumbent on the left side. But in any event, grabbing a tough, smart, reliable player such as Thuney would be a real jolt for this offense — both in the rushing attack and in the passing game.
Devin McCourty: New England Patriots
McCourty was outstanding throughout the 2019 season as the Patriots fielded one of the better secondaries in NFL history, but boy, he was especially good at the start of the season. McCourty had interceptions in each of the first four games, and by the time he got his fifth pick in Week 7, he had allowed only five catches. Yes, the Pats faced some weak offenses to start the season, but the sheer statistical rarity of a defensive player taking away as many passes as he allowed over nearly half a season is simply ridiculous. McCourty didn’t have another interception after Week 7, but that’s partially because he was targeted just 21 times after that. On 624 coverage snaps last season, he allowed 19 catches on 31 targets for 130 yards and one touchdown — with five interceptions and an opponent passer rating of 41.8.
The perfect Belichick-style defender, McCourty has played every position from outside cornerback to slot defender to deep safety since the Patriots selected him with the 27th overall pick in the 2010 draft. The franchise rewarded him with a five-year, $47 million deal in 2015, and they should re-up him once more to keep that formidable defense together.
Jameis Winston: Las Vegas Raiders
Back when Jon Gruden was a big-time ESPN analyst, as opposed to the Raiders’ head coach, he did a well-known series called “Gruden’s QB Camp,” in which he would sit with prominent draft-eligible quarterbacks and take them through their paces in interviews, whiteboard sessions and throwing drills. As ESPN’s Adam Schefter recently pointed out, one guy made a considerable impact on Gruden in those shows.
“I always remember Jon Gruden being a big Jameis Winston fan from our production meetings with him back when he was with ESPN,” Schefter said on the Feb. 19 episode of the “Rich Eisen Show.” “And so you wonder, would they have any interest in Jameis Winston; that would seem to make sense to me based on the way he felt.”
Well, given Gruden’s noncommittal responses to David Carr’s future with the franchise, this certainly would be fascinating. We all know the drill with Winston — big plays for both his own offense and enemy defenses, all the physical tools you’d want in a quarterback and the ability to adhere to different schemes, but always that rogue gene that has him writing checks with his arm that reality just won’t cash. If Gruden wants a guy with more physical potential than Carr, and he thinks he has the ability to tame Winston’s unfinished aspects, that would be an interesting fit.
Arik Armstead: Buffalo Bills
The Bills managed 44 sacks last season, but at least 16 of those might be leaving via free agency. Buffalo declined the fifth-year option on defensive end Shaq Lawson, which almost certainly means that Lawson and his 6.5 sacks will wind up elsewhere. The Bills also may decide to move on from defensive tackle Jordan Phillips and his 9.5 quarterback takedowns. If those things happen — and considering edge-rusher Jerry Hughes turns 32 in August and is coming off a disappointing and injury-plagued season — it’s safe to say Sean McDermott’s defense is in need of defensive line reinforcements. Given the Bills’ current $81,986,213 in cap space, it’s also safe to say that they can go after just about anyone they want.
When looking at scheme fit, any player who can generate pressure off the edge and when kicking inside would have an advantage here. Armstead was not a consistent generator of pressure through his first four seasons with the 49ers, but the proverbial light came on in 2019, as he totaled 10 sacks and 73 pressures during San Francisco’s Super Bowl run. With the ability to disrupt everywhere from pass-rushing tackle to wide end, Armstead could give Buffalo’s line a whole new look — especially in tandem with future star Ed Oliver.
Shaquil Barrett: New York Giants
Hidden behind other Broncos edge-rushers through his first five years in the NFL, Barrett went oddly unwanted through the 2019 free-agency process. The Bucs eventually signed him to a one-year, $4 million contract, which turned out to be an amazing bargain.
Barrett led the NFL in sacks with 19.5 and finished tied for fourth among all edge-rushers with 81 total pressures.
Those who dismiss him as a one-year wonder should turn on the tape. Barrett turns it loose against enemy tackles with a frightening burst off the snap and impressive speed to and through the pocket. Even when stonewalled at the point of attack, he’s great at disengaging and using counters and movement to disrupt. He also has a nasty spin move that’s very difficult to plan against.
Enter the Giants, with $78,435,117 in current cap space and a desperate need for edge pressure. Even if the Giants re-sign free agent Markus Golden, who led the team with 64 total pressures in 2019, the need for a bookend is obvious. Barrett would provide that, and the Giants have the money to get it done.
D.J. Reader: Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are in a position where they could lose a whole lot of their defensive line in free agency. Defensive tackles Jarran Reed and Al Woods are currently set to test the open market, as are ends Jadeveon Clowney, Ezekiel Ansah and Quinton Jefferson. We have an interesting edge-rushing solution later in this article, but in order to bolster the front four, Seattle could do a lot worse than Reader, who was one of the NFL’s better and most underrated interior pass-rushers and run-stoppers last season.
At 6-foot-3 and 347 pounds, Reader doesn’t look like someone who can blow through gaps to get to the quarterback, but he had 36 total pressures last season, splitting double teams and throwing blockers aside with estimable quickness and upper-body strength. Reader also tied with Michael Brockers of the Rams and Cameron Heyward of the Steelers with the fourth-most run stops in the NFL at 30 last season. He’s a multidimensional talent on the rise.
Tre Boston: Los Angeles Rams
One of the biggest personnel mysteries in the NFL today is how Boston has moved from the Panthers to the Chargers to the Cardinals and back to the Panthers on a series of one-year deals when he’s consistently proven to be one of the NFL’s most effective deep third safeties. Boston has no known personal dings, and he’s been remarkably consistent as a player in the toughest possible situation, moving from scheme to scheme year after year. He’s never allowed an opponent passer rating above 76.3. He has 13 interceptions to six touchdowns allowed over the past four seasons, and he has given up just 41 catches on 85 targets over that four-year stretch.
The Rams lost safety Eric Weddle to retirement this offseason, and given their current needs and cap situation, they won’t be able to go in on a star such as Minnesota’s Anthony Harris. New defensive coordinator Brandon Staley will need deep-third help as he begins the unenviable task of replacing Wade Phillips, and unless some other team gets smart and signs Boston to a multiyear deal, the Rams would be wise to take advantage of Boston’s current mercenary trends.
Chris Harris Jr.: Houston Texans
Harris joined the Broncos as an undrafted free agent out of Kansas in 2011 and quickly developed into the NFL’s most effective slot defender — and perhaps the best slot defender of his era. A five-year, $42.5 million contract signed in 2014 came with the opportunity to play outside more often, and Harris would handle that task with equal aplomb. The Broncos have decided to move on from Harris after a season in which he allowed 47 receptions on 68 targets for 672 yards, three touchdowns,and an opponent passer rating of 109.4, with one interception. It was the first time since Harris’ rookie season that he gave up more touchdowns than interceptions and allowed a passer rating higher than 89.0, but the tape shows that Harris still has enough left in the tank in the right situation.
The Texans need all the cornerback help they can get. Lonnie Johnson Jr. was the most obvious problem in Houston’s secondary, allowing nine touchdowns with no interceptions and a 133.5 opponent passer rating. Vernon Hargreaves III gave up five touchdowns versus one pick and an opponent passer rating of 112.1. Gareon Conley allowed six touchdowns to one pick and an opponent passer rating of 93.2. And on and on. Johnathan Joseph is on the way out, and Bradley Roby is an upcoming free agent. Harris may not be who he was at his best, but he has the skill set and veteran acumen to ease an overdue and mandatory secondary transition.
Cory Littleton: Green Bay Packers
Last season, per Sports Info Solutions, no team played more Dime+ defense (six or more defensive backs) than the Packers, who did so on 52% of their defensive snaps. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine prefers his cornerbacks and safeties to play multiple roles, while his frequently singular linebacker is tasked to cover as much space as possible, both against the run and in coverage. That’s interesting in theory, but not so great in practice. Blake Martinez was Green Bay’s primary linebacker in 2019, and while he was OK in coverage and as a run-stopper, he didn’t provide what a base dime defense would need.
Littleton, who has been a star in a Rams defense that played 41% of its snaps in Dime+ last year (third-highest in the league), would fit Pettine’s archetype like a veritable glove. Littleton had 561 coverage snaps, which means he was the lone linebacker on the field for a lot of those plays in Wade Phillips’ defense last season.
As Pro Football Focus points out, Littleton’s six interceptions rank second only to Atlanta’s Deion Jones (seven) among qualifying linebackers who have entered the league since 2016. Littleton also has the second-most forced incompletions (16) and is tied for second with the fewest missed tackles (four). The Packers could pursue an athletic linebacker in the draft, or they could sign Littleton, someone who’s already proven he can play this role in the NFL.
Dante Fowler Jr.: Seattle Seahawks
Selected with the third overall pick in the 2015 draft out of Florida by the Jaguars, Fowler struggled at first to live up to his monstrous potential, as his raw athleticism was taken to task by more experienced blockers, and injuries and off-field issues affected his growth as a player.
He was a pretty decent disruptor at times, but after missing his entire rookie season due to a torn ACL, he never managed more than eight sacks in a season. Perhaps the best thing that could have happened to Fowler was a 2018 midseason trade to the Rams, where he was given one task by defensive coordinator Wade Phillips: Pin your ears back, and go get the quarterback.
In 2019, Fowler did that better than at any other point in his career, with 11.5 sacks and 67 total pressures. Now, Fowler has become a fully loaded pass-rushing monster, able to take blockers apart with speed and force at the edge, or a quick inside move to demolish on stunts and twists. He’d be a perfect (and relatively affordable) addition for a Seattle front four that amassed just 28 sacks and 126 total pressures, both among the worst in the NFL, even with the addition of Jadeveon Clowney — who likely will get a lot more money elsewhere than Fowler will command.
Robby Anderson: Philadelphia Eagles
Anderson was one of the more prolific deep threats in the NFL last season, catching nine passes of 20 or more air yards on 28 targets for 329 yards and three touchdowns. Per Pro Football Focus, only Julio Jones (126), Mike Evans (121) and Antonio Brown (113) have more deep targets than Anderson since 2016, which is when Anderson came into the NFL as an undrafted free agent out of Temple. Now he’s going to get big money for that deep speed, as well as his consistency and reliability — he’s played in 62 of a possible 64 games in his NFL career.
The Eagles could use Anderson’s deep speed, but his ability to stay on the field — especially after the injury disasters Doug Pederson’s team experienced last season — may be the more important attribute. Last season, DeSean Jackson, Philly’s primary deep threat, managed to play just three games, and Jackson will turn 34 in December. The Eagles also may try to acquire targets in the draft, but with the way they limped into the playoffs at the receiver position, don’t be surprised if they go big in free agency as well. Jackson’s contract doesn’t allow for an easy exit until 2021, but imagine how safeties would hate to deal with Jackson and Anderson simultaneously.
Teddy Bridgewater: Chicago Bears
Lamar Jackson wasn’t the first quarterback out of Louisville in this decade to make serious waves in his second NFL season — there was also Bridgewater, whom the Vikings selected with the final pick in the first round of the 2014 draft. Bridgewater went to the Pro Bowl in the 2015 season, but then a severe knee injury cost him most of two seasons and led the Vikings to decline his fifth-year option. The Jets signed Bridgewater to a one-year deal in 2018 and wound up trading him to New Orleans, where he enjoyed a career resuscitation as Drew Brees’ backup, starting five games in 2019 when Brees was out with a thumb injury.
During that time, Bridgewater showed he had all the skills the Vikings once wanted, completing 67.9% of his passes for 1,384 yards with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. The Saints won each of Bridgewater’s starts, and he proved that he has overcome an injury that would have been career-ending in previous eras. Bridgewater likely will be signed to a buyer-beware deal by his next employer, a team that will need certainty at the quarterback position. The Bears, who have beefed up their coaching staff in hopes of getting whatever they can out of Mitchell Trubisky, have until May to decide whether to pick up that fifth-year option. Meantime, Chicago with a limited window of potential championship success based on a formidable defense, would be an ideal landing spot.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar previously covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”
