After a wild championship week in college football, all of the games that will determine which four teams will make the College Football Playoff are complete.
And, boy, are there some hard decisions to make.
In some ways, it might be fitting for chaos to be a part of the ending equation to this last year of the current format when only four teams get a crack at it as a glorified “and one.” Years like this are the very reason the format needs to change, and will, beginning next season when the 12-team format kicks in.
But that does little to address the problem ahead of the CFP committee this season. Almost all of the top eight teams have an argument to be included in the field (even Oregon because of a loss to the same team twice). At some point, things have to be taken into consideration with such a razor thin margin.
We feel pretty good about Oregon being left out in the cold after losing to Washington in the Pac-12 Championship game, and it’ll take new precedents for Ohio State to get in. But what’s the rest of the order after Alabama upset Georgia in the SEC Championship game, Texas blew the doors off Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game, Michigan held serve against Iowa in the Big Ten, and Florida State took care of business in the ACC Championship game?
You can bank on undefeated teams Michigan and Washington being in the field, but what about undefeated FSU and four one-loss teams left over for two final spots?
Here is how we see the College Football Playoff rankings that will send four teams on a continued journey to win a national championship shaking out on Sunday.
25
Kansas State Wildcats (8-4)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 25
Last Result: Idle
24
SMU Mustangs (10-2)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 23
Last Result: Idle
23
Clemson Tigers (8-4)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 23
Last Result: Idle
22
Liberty Flames (13-0)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 24
Last Result: Won 49-35 vs. New Mexico State (C-USA Championship)
21
Tennessee Volunteers (8-4)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 21
Last Result: Idle
20
Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-4)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 18
Last Result: Lost vs. Texas, 49-21
19
Oregon State Beavers (8-4)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 20
Last Result: Idle
18
Iowa Hawkeyes (10-3)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 16
Last Result: Lost vs. Michigan, 26-0
17
NC State Wolfpack (9-3)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 19
Last Result: Idle
16
Louisville Cardinals (10-3)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 14
Last Result: Lost vs. Florida State, 16-6 (ACC Championship)
15
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-3)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 17
Last Result: Idle
14
Arizona Wildcats (9-3)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 15
Last Result: Idle
13
LSU Tigers (9-3)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 13
Last Result: Idle
12
Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 12
Last Result: Idle
11
Ole Miss (10-2)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 11
Last Result: Idle
10
Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2)
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 10
Last Result: Idle
Why the Ranking
Penn State was idle and watched the chaos unfold ahead of it. There will not be any change in where the Nittany Lions fall in the final rankings. The controversy happens a few spots ahead.
9
Missouri Tigers (10-2)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 9
Last Result: Idle
Why the Ranking
Again, same thing for the Tigers. They will not be a part of all of the drama the CFP committee has to figure out. It’s been an overachieving and unexpected year in Columbia though, and Missouri is going to find its way into a New Year’s Six Bowl most likely.
8
Oregon Ducks (11-2)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| 12/1 | vs. Washington (Pac-12 Championship) |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 5
Last Result: Lost vs. Washington, 34-31
Why the Ranking
Oregon fans will not like it, but the Ducks, with two-losses, have the least compelling argument of the top eight teams and will probably land here after another close loss to Washington.
Why they should be in
The two-losses have come to what will most likely be one of the top two ranked teams in the College Football Playoff, and both were by a razor-thin margin. Doesn’t that say that the Ducks are one of the four best teams?
Why they could be out
Oregon had a second chance to beat Washington, a mulligan most teams don’t get. If you can’t take care of business in that scenario, and don’t have a conference championship as a part of the body of work at this time, a spot in the playoff isn’t coming.
7
Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TDB | Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 6
Last Result: Idle
Why the Ranking
While seven of the top eight ranked teams in the CFP rankings had a chance to prove their worth in conference championship games, the Big Ten’s inability to change the division format kept the Buckeyes out of that same scenario. Unfortunately, two teams behind Ohio State won and notched conference championships so you can bank on OSU falling to No. 7 despite watching all of the chaos from couches.
Why they should be in
Ohio Sate’s only loss is to No. 1 Michigan in a one-possession game on the road. It has wins over Notre Dame on the road, and a top-10 Penn State team at home. The strength of record and strength of schedule is one of the best in the country.
Why they could be out
In a year where there are a slew of undefeated and one-loss teams, conference titles are probably going to be an extra data set that breaks many ties. Texas and Alabama have one, Ohio State doesn’t.
6
Georgia Bulldogs (12-1)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl Game |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 1
Last Result: Lost vs. Alabama, 27-24 (SEC Championship)
Why the Ranking
I know it sounds a little crazy for Georgia to drop this far after the close lost to ‘Bama, but it’s an outlier year. The Dawgs probably drop here because they have to go behind both Alabama and Texas because those two have been tied together ever since the Longhorns won the head-to-head matchup earlier in the year.
Why they should be in
Georgia has been the clear No. 1 for a few weeks now in the CFP committee’s eye. Can a loss one week against a one-loss SEC champion change minds? Do we really think the Bulldogs aren’t one of the four best teams based on talent and results this season?
Why they could be out
The Dawgs couldn’t get it done when it mattered and don’t have a conference championship like others in the same pool do. Because of the head-to-head, Georgia has to fall below Alabama in a top heavy field this year and that’ll most likely keep the two-time defending champ out of the CFP.
5
Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 8
Last Result: Won vs. Georgia, 27-24
Why the Ranking
Alabama’s miracle finish keeps its College Football Playoff hopes alive. Texas is keeping the Tide from moving up because of the head-to-head, but should Alabama find a way to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship game, it’s hard to see how it misses the four-team field.
Why they should be in
Alabama is playing some of the best football of any team out there right now and just won a championship over the previous No. 1 team in what’s been considered the best league in college football for years now. Can you really leave the SEC champ out of the CFP?
Why they could be out
It’s about the body of work and you can’t erase what happened the entire year when Alabama struggled to win games, and if fact, had to escape against a bad Auburn team last week. There is often recency bias, but all of that and the head-to-head loss against Texas is a big point to consider right now. The committee will not put the Tide in over the Longhorns, right? And if there’s only one spot left when debating, is ‘Bama out?
4
Texas Longhorns (12-1)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 7
Last Result: Won vs. Oklahoma State, 49-21 (Big 12 Championship)
Why the Ranking
Texas made a statement by throttling the Cowboys. The only loss is in a rivalry game and it was a close, close game. Also, the biggest point in all of these rankings is the fact the Longhorns have the head-to-head against Alabama and that has to matter when deciding the last spot or two and which team gets left out.
Why they should be in
See above. The Alabama win over Georgia was a win for Texas, too. If the Tide move up, the Longhorns almost have to move up ahead of them. It’s like a backstop for Texas.
Why they could be out
Something is going to happen this season that we haven’t seen with this mockery of a four-team playoff. There’s just too many teams that have an argument. With all of that in play, something has to give and the head-to-head might go by the wayside if the committee believes the Alabama win was impressive enough and there’s enough momentum with the Tide’s late season improvement to finally leapfrog Alabama.
3
Florida State Seminoles (12-0)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 4
Last Result: Won vs. Louisville, 16-6 (ACC Championship)
Why the Ranking
A lot of national media-types believe that Florida State will be left out because of Texas and Alabama’s results in combination with the Seminoles being without their starting quarterback. However, FSU is undefeated as a Power Five team. I just don’t see the committee leaving out a team in that scenario.
Why they should be in
Again, FSU is undefeated. AS A POWER FIVE team. How can the committee leave a team out in that scenario? If this week and years past have shown us anything, it’s that we just don’t know and the results on the field have to matter. Being undefeated has to matter.
Why they could be out
Of any team that has an argument, Florida State has looked the most vulnerable and likely is. It hasn’t been easy and starting quarterback Jordan Travis will not be able to play in the bowl game. All of those things will be in play when the eye test comes into the conversation out in Grapevine, Texas.
2
Washington Huskies (13-0)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| 01/01 | TBD CFP Semifinal |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 3
Last Result: Won vs. Oregon, 34-31 (Pac-12 Championship)
Why the Ranking
Washington is one of just three undefeated teams and will be somewhere in the top two. Michigan has looked a bit better so bank on the Huskies checking in at No. 2.
Why they should be in
Washington is undefeated as a Power Five team and has two wins over a top-10 Oregon team. There’s going to be controversy behind the Huskies and they’ll sit back and watch it all unfold.
Why they could be out
They will not be. As the likely No. 2 team in the rankings, Washington will be headed to either Pasadena or New Orleans depending on where Michigan goes. It’ll be interesting to see if the Wolverines head to the traditional Rose Bowl or to a closer location in the Big Easy.
1
Michigan Wolverines (13-0)
Remaining Schedule
| Date | Opponent |
| TBD | TBD Bowl |
Last Week’s CFP Ranking: 2
Last Result: Won vs. Iowa, 26-0 (Big Ten Championship)
Why the Ranking
With the Georgia loss and with Michigan taking care of business, the Wolverines will most likely take over the No. 1 spot. The win over Ohio Sate and Penn State and the game control throughout the season is enough to pick up the top spot.
Why they should be in
The Wolverines are one of three undefeated Power Five teams and have looked better than anyone in the country. There’s no doubt Michigan is in and can rest easy when the CFP rankings are revealed on Sunday.
Why they could be out
The Wolverines are definitely in and we’ll have to see if they head out to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl or go down to New Orleans for the Sugar. And who will the opponent be? That’s the biggest question perhaps.
Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on X.
