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USA Today Sports Media Group

Sport

Mark Schofield

Predicting what the 2020 NFL schedule will look like

The National Football League does a tremendous job of keeping itself relevant throughout the calendar year. Part of this ability lies in how they package “hope.” The NFL draft gives each fan base the idea that with the right few picks, next year could really be the year for their favorite team. Television ratings reflect that, and this year – as the only “game” in town – ratings were through the roof.

Another bit of news the league uses each year to stay in the global conversation is the release of the upcoming schedule. Normally, logistics do not move the needle for most people, but somehow the release of the NFL schedule creates hours of conversation and endless topics on predicted win/loss records, games to watch, and the like. (Believe me, we will be doing all of that here at Touchdown Wire).

But with the current global climate and concerns over a season starting on time – if at all – the schedule release is taking on a bit more importance. To that end, what might the 2020 NFL schedule look like when it’s released Thursday at 8:00 p.m. EST?

Here are some predictions.

The Season Opener

(Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

Traditionally, the NFL opens each season with the defending Super Bowl Champions hosting a Thursday-night affair. Banners are raised, trophies are shown off and the team and its fans come together one final time to toast the success of the previous season. (One exception to this tradition was last year, when the league opened the NFL100 season by having two of the oldest franchises square off, the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears).

So in all likelihood the league turns back to the Super Bowl winners this year, with the Kansas City Chiefs opening the season up at Arrowhead Stadium. Some obvious choices for their opponent from their slate of home games stand out immediately. This year the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans are scheduled to visit Kansas City, and either a rematch of the Divisional Round last season or a contest between two teams with a growing rivalry makes a great deal of sense. The Patriots and the Chiefs opened up the season a few years back when the Patriots were coming off a Super Bowl, so we could expect New England to make the trip to Kansas City this year.

There might be a potential catch to this, as we will discuss in a moment, so a dark horse selection might be one of their NFC South opponents this year. In 2020 the NFC South and the AFC West are the teams slated to play each other in non-conference games, so you could see either the Carolina Panthers or the Atlanta Falcons scheduled to open the season in Kansas City.

Thanksgiving Traditions

The Thanksgiving slate of games might look fairly similar. Last year, for example, saw the Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears in the early game, the Dallas Cowboys host the Buffalo Bills in the afternoon, and in the primetime slot, and the New Orleans Saints visited the Atlanta Falcons.

Looking at the potential options for Detroit, you might expect a rematch of that game from a season ago, with the Lions hosting their NFC North rivals the Bears to kick off Thanksgiving. In the afternoon slot, you might see one of the league’s most bitter rivalries take place, with the Cowboys hosting the Washington Redskins. These teams have squared off before on the holiday, most recently in 2018.

Finally, we might see an NFC South matchup in the evening slate. With the acquisition of Tom Brady and the return of Rob Gronkowski to the league, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are certainly going to be a team to watch in the 2020 season. Thanksgiving night could come to a close down in Tampa Bay, with the Buccaneers hosting one of their divisional rivals.

Primetime Heroes

Schedule release day offers fans a window into what teams the league believes are going to be relevant in the year ahead, and those teams are often featured in the majority of primetime games. Last year, ten teams tied with five primetime games each: the Chicago Bears, the Dallas Cowboys, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Green Bay Packers, the Los Angeles Rams, the Minnesota Vikings, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Seattle Seahawks, and the New England Patriots, the defending Super Bowl Champions.

This year, you can expect the Chiefs to be atop any such list. Other teams that are likely candidates for a big chunk of games under the lights are the Baltimore Ravens, the New Orleans Saints, the Green Bay Packers, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Tennessee Titans.

But three teams that were barely featured in primetime might see a big boost to their national appearances in the year ahead. Last year the Arizona Cardinals played just one primetime game, but with Kyler Murray entering his second season and some new faces such as Isaiah Simmons and DeAndre Hopkins, we might see more of the Cardinals under the lights. The Buffalo Bills were the only team without a primetime game, but in a new look AFC East they can expect to see more love from the schedule makers. Finally, Tom Brady draws a crowd, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers likely see more than just a single primetime game.

Strongest Schedules

It might be a long year for the teams in the AFC East.

Now, strength of schedule numbers really do not mean anything until the games kick off, as teams change so much from season to season. But on paper, the AFC East squads have a tough road ahead. This season the AFC East squares off with the NFC West in terms of non-conference games, meaning there will be some long road trips for teams in those divisions. Furthermore, every single team in the AFC East plays both the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. Having both Super Bowl teams from a season ago on your schedule makes for tough sledding.

But if there is a team with the toughest road right now, it is the New England Patriots. First off, they have a first-place schedule, so they have games against the Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans on their calendar, with trips to Kansas City and Houston on the horizon. Their road games in the NFC West require trips to Seattle and Los Angeles to play the Rams, and home games against the 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals look pretty difficult right now. They also have two more trips to the west coast on the docket, with another trip to LA to play the Chargers, and a trip to the Vegas strip to take on the Las Vegas Raiders.

Then, their divisional slate looks a lot different, with the Bills, Dolphins and Jets all improving this offseason while Tom Brady leaves town to play with the Buccaneers. Put that together, and you have the league’s toughest schedule on paper.

In addition to the other AFC East teams, another team with a difficult road ahead is the New Orleans Saints. In addition to their divisional slate they have a trip to Denver to play the Broncos (a notoriously tough place to play), a trip to Philadelphia, and they also see the Packers, Vikings, Chiefs, and 49ers all come to town.

Weakest Schedules

While the AFC East seems to have the toughest road ahead in 2020, the schedule makers might have already done the AFC North teams a favor. According to strength of schedule numbers, every team in the AFC North has an easy schedule ahead, with all four teams set to play a schedule among the six easiest in the league. In fact, the Baltimore Ravens – a team that finished 14-2 last year – has the easiest schedule in the league as the teams they play in 2020 combined for a winning percentage of just .437 last year. For comparison’s sake, no other team in the league has a strength of schedule below .455. Part of the reason for this easy schedule on paper is the fact that the AFC North takes on the NFC East next year. So when you consider that the Ravens play the Cincinnati Bengals, the Washington Redskins and the New York Giants – teams that picked in the top four of the draft – you can see why the schedule is pretty easy on paper.

The Impact of COVID-19

(NFL/Handout Photo via USA TODAY Sports)

Of course, every aspect of life in our current global climate gets viewed through a different lens: That of COVID-19. With questions over when training camps can start looming, how might the current worldwide health crisis impact how the league schedules games for the 2020 season?

We have already seen one change, as the league announced this week that there would be no international games in the season ahead. But here is something else we might see, something that was referenced a few times earlier in this piece. Facing the prospects of a delay to the season, the league might look to schedule all of the non-conference games at the start of the season, so if they are forced to delay or even cancel the first four weeks of the year, they can do that without impacting the schedule too much. That would allow each team to play their full slate of divisional games as well as tames in the conference, which have more of an impact on tiebreakers in playoff scenarios. If the NFL is forced to cancel games at the start of the year, removing non-conference games from the calendar would have the smallest impact on the league as a whole.

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