Last year, five quarterbacks were taken in the first round and all give quarterbacks ended up starting for the team that chose them in their rookie year. We made a fun game of guessing when those picks would start. This year, three quarterbacks were taken in the first round and for the sake of discussion we are adding Drew Lock — the Broncos second-round pick — to the list where we guess what week those quarterbacks will start. The first rookie we will hit on was also the first pick in the 2019 draft. It’s kind of obvious when he will start.
Kyler Murray
Week 1 (Lock)
Murray hasn’t looked great in his short action in the preseason but that doesn’t matter at all. Murray is starting Week 1. He is the engine that will make Kliff Kingsbury’s offense run. There will be some people who will pile on Murray if he doesn’t start fast. They will say they were right about him being too small to play quarterback in the NFL. They will jump to conclusions.
There needs to be some tempered expectation when it comes to Murray and the Cardinals. The offensive line may not be very good. The wide receivers are young. Larry Fitzgerald is a legend but he’s far past his prime. The only wide receiver with big-time air raid experience is Christian Kirk.
It doesn’t matter because Murray is starting Week 1 and the top pick in the draft has lofty expectations even when they are in a bad situation. It doesn’t help that Baker Mayfield played pretty well last year, but the situation was kind of different. Mayfield wasn’t starting Week 1 and he wasn’t saddled with the height bias — even though Mayfield isn’t a giant himself — that Murray will deal with.
Daniel Jones
Week 12 (It should be earlier)
If we are predicting when Jones should start based on his performance it should be a lot earlier than when he will start. Jones should be playing Week 1. He will not be playing Week 1. He probably won’t be playing Week 6.
The situation is pretty simple. The Mara’s love Eli Manning. He means a lot to the organization. This is basically a season-long “we’re sorry” to Manning from when Ben McAdoo benched Eli in favor Geno Smith late in 2017. The Giants have been apologizing for too long. Manning will start the season, play until the Giants are officially out of the playoffs, and then cede his position in New York to Jones.
It would be best for the Giants to wait until after the bye. If the Giants are going to start Manning then they should let him have his farewell for a good portion of the season. Waiting until after the bye also doesn’t put unneeded pressure on Jones. He won’t be seen as a season savior. He won’t be expected to pull the Giants into playoff contention. The season will be over and he will be playing to get experience.
Dwayne Haskins
Week 4 or Week 6 (more likely)
Haskins is not currently at the top of the depth chart and it looks like the Redskins may go with Case Keenum to start the season. That makes sense because Jay Gruden is on the hot seat and he needs to win some games to make sure he keeps his job.
The problem for the Redskins and Gruden is that their schedule is absolutely brutal to start the season. They play the Eagles, Cowboys, Bears, and Patriots in their first five weeks. There’s no reason to start Haskins against any of those teams unless the Redskins want to ruin Haskins. It’s doubtful he would do well against any of those Super Bowl contenders.
If Washington is desperate they could start Haskins in Week 4 against the Giants but then he would have to against New England the next weekend. They might be better off just waiting until Week 6 for him to have his debut in Miami.
Drew Lock
Needs a Joe Flacco injury
Lock’s sprained thumb could have ended up being much worse, but there’s no reason for him to rush back. Joe Flacco is the entrenched starter this year. The Broncos could be in playoff contention this year if their defense can carry them. Flacco is just good enough to help the Broncos win some games but not good enough to help Denver be in contention in the AFC West. Their win total over-under is at seven. They feel like a seven-to-nine-win team.
Lock’s thumb injury gives Denver the room to sit lock for the entire season. There’s no reason to rush him back and mess with his throwing hand. Unless Flacco is injured later in the season, Lock shouldn’t play.
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