Every year, we watch as teams fill their most pressing needs in the NFL draft.
Of course, there’s also the other side of things. Plenty of teams take their best shots at landing a franchise-altering talent, only to come up short with some of the more premium picks.
This year, there are a slew of future starters and Pro Bowlers waiting to earn accolades throughout their careers. Some, though, will fall short of expectations. Below, we take a look at five youngsters who have obvious talent, but either because of age, injury concerns or development questions, are at risk of not reaching their ceilings.
Let’s start in Kansas City, where the Chiefs might have landed a stud left tackle, but knee concerns are present.
5. Josh Simmons, OT, Kansas City Chiefs
Simmons might end up being one of the best picks of the entire draft. That said, he's a 320-pounder coming off a torn patella tendon that isn't fully healed, and also has concerns around his maturity.
For the Chiefs, it's a worthwhile gamble at the 32nd pick. If he reaches his full potential, he's a Pro Bowler blocking for Patrick Mahomes. If he even gets to 80% of his ceiling, he's likely a two-contract player in Kansas City. Still, there's a real chance he's never the same after such a serious injury, which is why despite his obvious talent, he makes the list.
4. Demetrius Knight Jr., LB, Cincinnati Bengals
The first of two Bengals defenders on this list, Knight has some obvious concerns. For one, he turns 25 years old in July, making him one of the oldest players in this class. Another issue is the fact he spent six years at college across three programs and didn't become a plus-player until he was at Charlotte in 2023, when he was already older than almost everyone he played against.
In Cincinnati, he's in line to be a rotational player at first behind Germaine Pratt and Logan Wilson. By the time he's a starter, he'll be the age most guys are when they're signing a second deal.
3. Mason Taylor, TE, New York Jets
There's no question about Taylor's talent, which is why some personnel evaluators believed he could be a first-round pick. The concern here is fit, as the Jets have a lackluster quarterback in Justin Fields and a first-time, defensive-minded coach in Aaron Glenn.
If Taylor doesn't get the proper development, he could struggle to reach his ceiling, which is potentially becoming a top-10 tight end in the league. The good news? He's going to be the starter barring a surprise in training camp, giving him valuable reps to increase his already high talent level.
2. Shemar Stewart, Cincinnati Bengals
Stewart is a freak of an athlete. At 6' 5" and 267 pounds, Stewart torched the scouting combine with a 4.59 40 time. However, the question surrounding Stewart throughout his three years with the Aggies is: Where has the production been?
Stewart played 37 games in College Station and notched just 12 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. If the traits can turn into numbers and impact, the Bengals should be thrilled about landing Stewart at pick No. 17. However, if he continues to struggle finding results despite obvious talent, Cincinnati could be wondering why it didn’t grab a more polished defender at such a premium spot.
1. Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns
It's not often a fifth-round pick is the most talked-about player in the draft. It's also rare the player could be considered a bust when 143 men are chosen before him.
Yet that's where we stand with Sanders, who goes to the Browns as a potential Day 1 starter. Sanders was thought by some media to be worth a top-three pick in the draft. Instead, he went as the sixth quarterback off the board despite being a second-team Al-American in 2024, throwing for 4,134 yards and 37 touchdowns last year at Colorado.
If Sanders doesn't pan out, he'll be the latest in a long line of quarterbacks thought to be a potential franchise answer only to struggle. But if he does reach his full potential, he's one of the great steals in recent NFL history. However, the Browns are in charge of his development, and their last 25 years suggests major concerns in that department.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Predicting the Most Likely NFL Draft Busts in the AFC.
