2026 NFL schedule | NFC record predictions | Conor Orr’s best games | The Rams and the league’s ‘creative Super Bowl’
A year ago at this time, we all thought a few things in the AFC were certain.
The Chiefs, coming off three consecutive Super Bowl appearances, including two Lombardi Trophies, were assured another deep run. The Bills and Ravens, two of the top contenders for years, would be right there with Kansas City, making life difficult.
What happened was quite different.
The Chiefs went 6–11, the Ravens went 8–9, and the Bills failed to win the AFC East for the first time in six years before losing to Bo Nix and the Broncos in the divisional round. In lieu of the perennial powers reaching the Super Bowl, it was the Patriots with second-team All-Pro quarterback Drake Maye, who did so before falling to the Seahawks in Santa Clara.
Now, with all 272 regular-season games released for the 2026 NFL schedule, we’ll predict how things are going to play out this season.
A hint? I have three new division winners.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills: 11–6
The Bills are the most talented team in this division. They have a cyborg at quarterback in former MVP Josh Allen. Expect them to contend for the AFC’s top seed while getting back to the AFC East penthouse. However, there are a few concerns. One, the defense is switching schemes under new coordinator Jim Leonhard, so there will be bumps early. And the early schedule is no joke, including four playoff teams from a year ago: the Texans, Chargers, Patriots and Rams. The talented Lions are mixed in on a short week.
New England Patriots: 9–8
New England made a shocking Super Bowl appearance last year, but reality might come hard this year. Putting aside the off-field drama that has engulfed the organization this offseason, the Patriots are also going from one of the league’s easiest schedules over the past 30 years to a docket that includes a whopping five road games against 2025 playoff teams, along with trips to Kansas City and Detroit. The Patriots also have a tough opening month, facing the Seahawks, Steelers, Jaguars and Bills, all postseason qualifiers in 2025.
New York Jets: 6–11
Aaron Glenn is trying to get the Jets off the ground in his second year, and while they should be better, don’t expect miracles. Geno Smith is coming to New York for a second tour after leading the league with 17 interceptions in 2025. Although the Jets added significant offensive talent in rookies Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr., it’s going to be a build to become a playoff team. If New York can somehow navigate a challenging September, it faces the Browns, Dolphins and Raiders in Weeks 5 to 8.
Miami Dolphins: 3–14
This season is all about evaluating for the future. The Dolphins have a new triumvirate in town, with quarterback Malik Willis, coach Jeff Hafley and general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan, all of whom are coming from Green Bay. With 13 draft picks fighting to make the roster, there’s a youth movement afoot on South Beach. The Dolphins better find those victories early, facing six consecutive teams that made the playoffs a year ago to finish out their season.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens: 10–7
Look for the AFC North to have a strong year and perhaps produce multiple playoff teams. The division draws the AFC and NFC South divisions, giving it the most favorable draw of any quartet in the league. Baltimore is coming off an 8–9 season, but if Lamar Jackson is healthy, this group should be better despite key free-agent losses, including center Tyler Linderbaum and tight end Isaiah Likely, as well as the firing of longtime coach John Harbaugh. Everything could be determined late, with four divisional games to close the campaign.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10–7*
Pittsburgh has the best overall roster in this group. Still, it’s held back by Aaron Rodgers under center. As Mike McCarthy takes over for Mike Tomlin after his 19 years at the helm, the Steelers will try to win a second consecutive division title. Coming out of their Week 9 bye, Pittsburgh will have its make-or-break run, with six consecutive games against the Bengals, Eagles, Broncos, Texans, Jaguars and Ravens.
Cincinnati Bengals: 9–8
Can Joe Burrow stay healthy, and can the defense stop anybody? Over the past three years, all of which ended shy of the playoffs, the answer has primarily been no. Burrow has played in 35 of a possible 51 games, and the defense has ranked 31st, 25th and 31st, respectively. If the defense is improved enough after adding nose tackle Dexter Lawrence II, safety Bryan Cook and edge rusher Boye Mafe, and Burrow can play 17 games, look out. Cincinnati has a soft end to its schedule, with six of its final seven opponents missing the playoffs last year.
Cleveland Browns: 4–13
The battle between Shedeur Sanders (who threw seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions as a rookie) and Deshaun Watson (who’s played 19 games in four years with Cleveland) is the most depressing NFL storyline of the summer. The rest of the roster is quietly talented after a great draft last year that produced tight end Harold Fannin Jr. and linebacker Carson Schwesinger, but the quarterback situation is crushing. The early slate gives the Browns a chance, with the Panthers, Jets, Titans and Saints through the first nine weeks.
AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville Jaguars: 12–5
The Jaguars weren’t a fluke last year. After starting 5–4, Jacksonville won its final eight regular-season games to claim the AFC South. And over his last six games, quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw for 15 touchdowns and only one interception. Under second-year coach Liam Coen and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, the Jaguars will face the Patriots and Bengals before consecutive games in England against the Eagles and Texans, in a key stretch.
Houston Texans: 11–6*
If the Texans are going to repeat as the NFL’s stingiest defense in terms of points allowed, they’ll have to do it against some of the best. Houston will face Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott over the first four weeks, all at home. With Jayden Daniels, Jordan Love and Justin Herbert also waiting in their buildings after Houston’s bye, the Texans need their offense, particularly quarterback C.J. Stroud, to step up after throwing five interceptions and fumbling five times in the postseason.
Indianapolis Colts: 7–10
Indianapolis lost a ton this offseason. While Daniel Jones recovers from a torn Achilles this offseason, the Colts watched as right tackle Braden Smith, safety Nick Cross, receiver Michael Pittman Jr., linebacker Zaire Franklin and others left via free agency or trades. Considering Jones has never played a full season and has played only more than 14 games once, it’s tough to believe in Indianapolis suddenly leaping over the Texans and Jaguars. The early-season schedule is also brutal, with the Ravens, Chiefs and Texans in the first three weeks.
Tennessee Titans: 7–10
After hiring new coach Robert Saleh, spending lavishly in free agency, and drafting a pair of first-round talents, receiver Carnell Tate and defensive lineman Keldric Faulk, the Titans should be vastly improved. While Tennessee has a long road to respectability, it has the pieces to support second-year quarterback Cam Ward, while also being a menace to his counterparts with John Franklin-Myers, Jeffery Simmons and Faulk up front. Facing a last-place schedule without a three-game road trip, the Titans are poised to make strides.
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs: 12–5
It’s hard to believe the Chiefs will be a bottom-feeder again. Patrick Mahomes is on track to return in Week 1. They overhauled their run game by adding Kenneth Walker III and then used their first four draft picks on defense. The schedule has tough pockets, including a three-game road trip starting on Thanksgiving night against the Bills, Rams and Bengals before coming home to face the Patriots and 49ers. The Chiefs also open with two home prime-time games against the Broncos and Colts.
Denver Broncos: 11–6*
The Broncos are trying to defend their first AFC West crown since 2015, and they’ll have a reasonable chance to do so. While drawing the NFC West and a first-place schedule makes things tougher, Denver is bringing back most of its star-studded defense, and added receiver Jaylen Waddle to the offense. The early-season schedule is very tough with a Monday nighter in Kansas City, followed by tilts with the Jaguars, Rams and 49ers over the first month.
Los Angeles Chargers: 8–9
The Chargers didn’t upgrade many areas this offseason and lost a few key pieces: edge rusher Odafe Oweh and receiver Keenan Allen. Oh, and the schedule is brutal. Starting in Week 3, Los Angeles will play the Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans and Ravens consecutively. They also finish the year with Kansas City and Denver. If the Chargers are going to get back into the playoffs, it’s going to be a long, hard road.
Las Vegas Raiders: 6–11
The Raiders might finally be on the way up after selecting Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 pick a few months after hiring Klint Kubiak as coach. Still, Las Vegas has a roster riddled with holes on offense and defense. The Raiders also have the misfortune of being in a division with two playoff teams from a year ago, and another that has reached five Super Bowls over the past seven seasons. Weeks 4 to 7 are particularly difficult with the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams in order.
More NFL from Sports Illustrated
- SI:AM | What to Know About the NFL Schedule
- Winners and Losers From the NFL’s 2026 Schedule Release Videos
- Chargers Poke Fun at Mike Vrabel-Dianna Russini Scandal In Schedule Release Video
- Tom Brady Finally Has a Good Excuse to Be Neutral About the Patriots
- Albert Breer Details How the NFL Built the 2026 Schedule
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Predicting Every AFC Team’s Record Based on the 2026 Schedule.
