Past performances count for a lot, as we know, but among three-year-old Thoroughbreds as lightly raced as those of the Class of 2020 — who for a host of reasons, including SARS-CoV-2′s upending of all spectator sports, are still finding themselves — past performances can be only fragile indications of steady talent. That Authentic is a good horse, and ready for the 2020 Preakness, is a fact. That he’s trained by Bob Baffert, the infamous Arizona-born trainer who has won the Preakness seven (that would be seven) times, in addition to his record six Kentucky Derby victories, is arguably a greater fact in helping us build a picture of the race this afternoon.
Baffert has succeeded in pulling more than a stunning upset of a Derby performance out of Authentic, whose pedigree favored speed over endurance. For his part, the horse still seems ready to rock, and the fact of his main rival Tiz The Law’s absence should — repeat, should — make the race somewhat easier for him to command. But since this is a lightly-raced horse of 2020, and since he’s a three-year-old who hasn’t quite finished growing into himself, does he want to do it? We’ll bring in the Bluegrass Wise Man ™ to help us wander through these and other questions in the 2020 season’s last so-called “Triple Crown” series, but first, the Saturday odds, which we’ll update with live odds during the day, once the data feed from Pimlico becomes available.
- Excession, 51-1
- Mr. Big News, 13-1
- Art Collector, 5-2
- Swiss Skydiver, 11-1
- Thousand Words, 6-1
- Jesus’ Team, 30-1
- NY Traffic, 20-1
- Max Player, 12-1
- Authentic, 3-2
- Pneumatic, 13-1
- LiveYourBeastLife, 30-1
(Odds Courtesy of Twinspires, 3 October 2020, Updated: 5:27 p.m.)
It’s race day, so let’s revisit Authentic. It’s about three-year-olds. Is he even himself yet?
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: That’s the mystery with all of them. They’re not quite juveniles, but they’re not grownups yet, either. If you’re asking whether he can be convinced to bring another stretch run like he did in the Derby, I have to say I don’t know. We know one thing. He has it in him to do that, because he really beat somebody in Tiz The Law, and he didn’t just beat him, he trounced him completely. That said, we’re all gonna be betting him like madmen, and not just because of him, but because of Bob. Bob has won this race seven times. I think he’s gonna make it eight. What I’m saying is, he’s Bob’s horse, and Bob doesn’t mess around in Triple Crown races just for the hell of it, Covid-19 or no.
Fair enough. Let’s move on to the first tier. Swiss Skydiver? Does Switzerland even have any flat land to land on if you jump out of a plane?
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Can’t say where they get these names, and I don’t think I’d be wanting to jump out of a plane over there, but the filly is legit. Second in the Oaks, second behind Art Collector in the Blue Grass, she’s actually one of the more proven, better-raced horses in the field. Which is saying something.
Does that mean that you’ll be salting her into a few of the famous Wise Man exotics?
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Too early in the day to say, but probably. She’ll be fun to watch, that is for sure. She’s breaking from a little bit inside, but if she breaks clean and gets her trip, she’s got a good shot to wind up in the money.
Which brings us to the horse she ran second to in the Blue Grass, Art Collector.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Won his last four, obviously including the Blue Grass, but then what, would be my question. I can’t really answer why I’m not as high on as the horse that ran second to him in the Blue Grass, chalk it up to the pause that everybody had back in the spring. Just feels like, thin evidence for such low odds. I guess you could say this about all of ‘em, but I’m just not sure he’s kinda come out of his box and declared himself yet. Still waiting on him.
Let’s deal with Mr. Big News, one of the more curious, or more normal, cases of a three-year-old coming on suddenly.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: I liked his show run in the Derby, closing into the slot behind Tiz The Law from tenth in a fifteen-horse field. That was bringing a run. He got a “win-and-in” invite to the Preakness when he won the Oaklawn back in April, which didn’t mean much as a run, but his Derby run proved he was worth it. We could see something for him. Despite his run behind Tiz The Law, the Preakness will still, sorta, be a step up for him, if only to prove his consistency. A step up meaning, if he squeaks into the money again. We still don’t know if he has tactical speed in the body of the race, meaning, before he brings a run. But he has to be considered. I could see playing him to show again, or boxing him in a trifecta, simply because it’s a shorter race and in the Derby he waited, or got held somehow, until it was almost too late.
Does that mean you’re gonna drop Pneumatic, or Max Player, or Thousand Words in favor of Mr. Big News and slot him heavier into your mix?
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: I could see doing that, but I won’t promise I like him enough to put him in every bet. That’s actually what’s pretty and fun about this field, down in the second tier, there are a lot of horses who can muster the run to throw a wrench into the works. Can’t call ‘em bombs, exactly, because they are not waiting to explode. Thousand Words, Max Player, or even Pneumatic, can do a lot to wreck something up for Authentic, but you have the sense that they have to have some help to do that, like Authentic has to break badly, or get somehow boxed in and then you could have a situation where Thousand Words or Max Player could be there to mop up the pieces. Worth playing? Yes. Worth really loving and getting your heart on board? No.
