As a part of my personal quest to become the greatest fantasy football player alive, I have spent most of the coronavirus quarantine making projections for every offensive skill-position player in the NFL. Yes, it is a painstaking process, but it pays off.
Let me explain my methodology for creating these projections. First, I assess what a particular offense did in 2019 as a whole, from a thousand-foot view. How many total plays did they run? Of those, how many rushes and how many pass plays were called? How many yards per play did each gain? How many plays per game did they average? It is safe to project a team’s overall numbers in these areas to fall fairly close to those of the previous season, as play-callers are generally consistent in how they call games.
However, a change in coaching staff or in player personnel typically means changes are coming. If a team has a new offensive coaching staff, we must dig into the history of those coaches or play-callers to see what we can discover about how they are likely to mix pass and run plays, or what their pace of play will likely look like. Likewise, if a team signed new players or cut other players, we need to look at what is most likely to happen with the new personnel, based on the history of that particular offense.
Starting broadly, from a team perspective, and then zooming into particular players and what they are likely to do within those overall numbers, is the key to making accurate projections. If you start throwing out numbers outside of the overall team context, it is simply blind luck if you are accurate.
Luckily for Chiefs fans, there have been no major changes for 2020. They have their coaching staff back intact, which is quite rare on the heels of a Super Bowl championship. And they have their players back as well, which is equally as remarkable in today’s transient NFL. Therefore, the Chiefs are one of the easier teams to project for 2020. Still, no two seasons are going to go the exact same way.
For example, I projected all of the offensive weapons for the Chiefs to play a full 16 games. That certainly won’t happen, but it’s easier to project for this since we have no idea who might get injured.
Let’s dive into the offense one position at a time and explore what I believe is most likely to happen in 2020.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes had what I consider to be the greatest start to an NFL career in history. He followed up his ridiculous 50-touchdown, 5,000-yard season in 2018 by throwing for over 4,000 in 2019 (despite missing almost all of 3 games). He certainly could have hit 5,000 yards in consecutive years otherwise.
His touchdown rate did fall from an astounding 8.6% in 2018 to 5.4% in 2019. Some of that could have been due to the nagging injuries, but more likely it is just typical regression toward a more sustainable level, as defenses schemed to take away the deep shots that were there often in 2018.
For 2020, I project Mahomes to fall between the two seasons in most ways, although his continued improvement as a player (physically and mentally) has also been factored in.
Projections:
The chart above includes my 2020 projection for Mahomes, as well as where he landed in both 2019 and 2018, for comparison. Remember, 2018 is a bit skewed because he only played in 13.25 games. Also, I have included YPA, which stands for yards per attempt, as well as the percentage of touchdowns and interceptions per attempt in parentheses after the touchdown and interception numbers.
These numbers in 2020 would almost certainly put Mahomes at the top of the heap among quarterbacks again, where I believe he belongs. The surpassing skill of Mahomes, along with the continuity of the offense and the surrounding cast, make these numbers quite attainable.
Running backs
Last season was a bit of a carousel for the Chiefs at running back, with Damien Williams and then LeSean McCoy and then Darrel Williams seemingly taking turns leading the charge. With Damien Williams playing his heart out in the playoffs, I think he has grabbed back lead duties for the duration of 2020.
It is tough to nail down who will be on the roster behind him. The coaching staff has raved at various times about both Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson, and they also signed three other backs this offseason: DeAndre Washington, Elijah McGuire, and Mike Weber. Because of Washington’s history with Mahomes (they played together at Texas Tech), I think he will edge out Darrel Williams for a roster spot. I think Darwin Thompson will grab the third spot since they invested a draft pick last year and seem to really like his skill set. While it is possible they keep four, I chose to project for only those three backs.
Projections:
Pass Catchers
If Williams were to finish with these numbers, which equate to 230 fantasy points in point-per-reception leagues, he would be around the 13 ranked running back for fantasy if we assume numbers are similar to last season. That would make him an extremely valuable player to own.
The top two pass catchers for the Chiefs for the past few years have been Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and that does not figure to change in 2020. Although Hill was injured last season, otherwise both players have been consistently excellent. Many expected the Chiefs to let Sammy Watkins go this offseason, and almost everyone expected Demarcus Robinson to sign elsewhere in free agency. However, both players agreed to return to the Chiefs, Watkins on a restructured deal for less overall compensation and Robinson for a league-minimum deal. Though it is surprising, it means we do not need to include any new faces in the projection.
The main differences between last season and this season have to do with the expectation that everyone will remain healthy and that Mecole Hardman will grow into a larger role in his second season. Also, the one new face is tight end Ricky Seals-Jones, who replaces Blake Bell in free agency.
Projections:
These numbers would see Hill and Kelce again finish at or very near the top at their respective positions in fantasy football. In addition, if Sammy Watkins and Hardman are able to reach these numbers, they would both jump into the top 40 wide receivers statistically, making them both quite valuable for fantasy as well. When an offense gains almost 7,000 yards, many players are likely to be valuable fantasy contributors.
Kevin Scott has been playing fantasy football for over 20 years, and has written for many sites, including SI, 4for4, FFToday, and others. You can follow him on Twitter @kevinscottff
