Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha may have cleared the tenure obstacle after winning the Constitutional Court's judgement to stay on as prime minister. However, the road ahead may be long and challenging.
Before the court issued its landmark ruling on Sept 30, speculation was already rife that Gen Prayut may be walking into the sunset, even if he was given a new lease on political life.
Now that the ruling has come, and after he was forced to step aside for a month as the court deliberated, Gen Prayut is back sitting comfortably in the prime minister's seat until the current parliament term expires in March and seeking to return to serve what remains of his eight-year premiership.
The Constitutional Court on Sept 30 ruled that Gen Prayut officially began his term as prime minister in April 2017, meaning he can stay in office until 2025, provided he is re-elected by parliament after the election expected in the first half of next year.
Gen Prayut may be willing to soldier on with the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) pledge to re-nominate him as a prime ministerial candidate. However, it is voters who will decide the PPRP's fate in politics and with it, Gen Prayut's.
Some academics have reckoned that given Gen Prayut's plummeting approval ratings and the growing resistance from many quarters against the government, a second term as an elected prime minister would be an uphill battle for Gen Prayut.
Already, political analysts are debating whether Gen Prayut, with two years left of his prime minister tenure, will be an asset or a liability for a party that is putting his name in the hat as the prime ministerial candidate ahead of the next election, tentatively set for May 7.
Still a 'marketable brand'
Witthaya Kaewparadai, executive member of the Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party (RTSCP), said should Gen Prayut opt to make a comeback as leader of the next government, he must streamline his working approach.
His critics have attacked him for looking through the lens of a bureaucrat and being less responsive to issues that require swift action to iron out.
"Two years feel like a long time, considering parliament's shelf life, spanning about two years in many cases," Mr Witthaya said, adding the current parliament has defied expectations by lasting as long as it has.
He believed Gen Prayut is still marketable in the eyes of many politicians mainly because he holds a graft-free, unblemished track record.
On the subject of economics, the opposition has been taking the prime minister and the government to task for the soaring cost of living when in fact, the global economy has been battered by more than two years of Covid-19 and the lingering instability caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the energy crisis, he said.
Politicians are often removed from power on account of corruption, which has never been the problem under this government. This, in turn, bolsters people's confidence in the Prayut administration, he said.
By now, Gen Prayut should be familiar with the nature of politics and how it should be run and has adapted himself to it, he said.
But if Gen Prayut decided to pursue a return as prime minister on the RTSCP's ticket, the matter would have to be discussed by the party first, Mr Witthaya said.
He conceded the party, established in March last year, is in the process of fine-tuning its policies and reorienting its political direction.
Term-splitting PMs possible
Chief government whip Nirote Sunthornlekha, who is also PPRP MP for Nakhon Sawan, said the country's politics was volatile as the organic bill to amend the election of MPs law was awaiting the Constitutional Court's ruling on its validity.
The bill was referred to the court after it was criticised for failing to meet its amendment deadline in parliament and forced the adoption of 100 in calculating list MPs in the next election.
Petitioners who requested the court's interpretation argued the bill was invalid as it had not been vetted by parliament.
Mr Nirote agreed that Gen Prayut's chief selling point is his clean sheet. He has been a state official all his life and did everything by the book, he said.
Gen Prayut's task has been to lead the government while the business of managing MPs in the ruling PPRP is left to party leader Prawit Wongsuwon, who is also deputy prime minister.
At this point in time, no one can tell if Gen Prayut has set his sights on vying for a return to the premiership and completing his maximum eight-year term.
However, Mr Nirote has not ruled out the possibility of Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit splitting equally the four-year term of the next government, assuming Gen Prayut consents to the PPRP nominating him as a prime ministerial candidate and the PPRP returning as a ruling party.
"Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit have their own strengths," he said.
Gen Prayut never meddles
Ketrat Laothamatas, spokesman of the Action Coalition for Thailand (ACT), said he could not predict if other members of the government coalition will reunite to support Gen Prayut's second term as an elected leader.
The ACT will maintain its backing of Gen Prayut as premier as he has never interfered in the affairs of the Higher Education Science Research and Innovation Ministry which the party supervises, he said.
"That's a plus side to him. By not meddling, the premier allows the ministers a free hand to do their job," he said.
"It's a democratic way of running the affairs of the state, which requires a bottom-up method of management," Mr Ketrat said, insisting the ACT stands behind Gen Prayut.
In the final analysis, the result of the next election will decide whether Gen Prayut can realise his ambition for a second term, he said.
'Old car' to be replaced
However, not everyone shares such enthusiasm for Gen Prayut. Chief opposition whip Sutin Klungsang said the problem with Gen Prayut is that he has simply been in power for too long.
"Even if [Gen Prayut's] name still sells, he's like an old car that needs a paint job and an engine overhaul," he said. "But if people could choose, they would rather have a new car."
According to the opposition, Gen Prayut should have stepped down on Aug 23 when his tenure expired.
Critics have asserted that Gen Prayut began his tenure when he was installed as prime minister on Aug 24, 2014.
So, he should have already used his maximum eight years, extending over two terms, on Aug 23, Mr Sutin said.
Mr Sutin said Gen Prayut is likely to seek a second term although it was likely to end in disaster.
In case Gen Prayut is able to return as premier, it will not be because he is popular, he said.
Certain tactics may be employed to exploit the state's power to give some parties an advantage over others in the next poll, he said.
The PPRP might have realised it should find someone else to stand as its prime ministerial candidate, he said.
But no one would likely step forward and offer themselves as the party's rating is not what it used to be, Mr Sutin said.
Coup possible
Meanwhile, Olarn Tinbangtiew, a lecturer at the Faculty of Political Science and Law, Burapha University, said he believes it will be a tough call for any party to field Gen Prayut on its prime minister nomination list.
They would have a hard time explaining to constituents that Gen Prayut would be unable to complete his term as prime minister after the next election, he said.
The time-limit on his term could make him seem a less appealing candidate.
Also, Gen Prayut's drop in popularity could affect the party nominating him, increasing its risk of defeat at the polls, he said.
Mr Olarn said some may try to push for a revision of Section 158 of the constitution to cancel the cap on the maximum eight-year tenure of a prime minister, or a military coup to "clear the deck" and start over.
The campaign to revoke Section 112 of the Criminal Code, or the lese majeste law, is gaining momentum and may fuel national security concerns, creating a pretext for a revolt, he said.
Some of those in power might have taken comfort in anti-government protests failing to gather significant force while figuring out the best way to keep elections at bay as they stand to lose in the polls, he said.
Longer-than-thought tenure
Jade Donavanik, a former adviser to the Constitution Drafting Committee, said politicians and parties backing Gen Prayut might hold out hope that Gen Prayut will end up with more than two years to go as prime minister.
This is because the remainder of Gen Prayut's tenure, under the Constitutional Court's Sept 30 ruling, could still be construed as extending over two years, he said.
Mr Jade added voters might not embrace the notion of Gen Prayut exiting his prime minister post halfway through the term.
There is no guarantee a premier candidate earmarked to fill the latter half of the term would be voted in by parliament.
By then, the present, coup-appointed Senate will have been replaced, and the new senators will no longer have the power to co-elect a prime minister, he said.
The academic said the politicians might be contemplating how to work around nominating Gen Prayut as the prime ministerial candidate.
He said Gen Prayut should spend the time he has left as prime minister to make achievements and then wash his hands of politics.
