20 for 2020: 20 key offseason topics: No. 12. 35 most dangerous upset alert games for Power Five teams vs. Group of Five programs.
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If you’re a Power Five – ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC – college football program, it’s just never okay to lose to a Group of Five team.
The American Athletic, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt teams all might have the potential to come up with a win over the Power Fiver on the slate, but it’s not always that easy.
But the Group of Five is equal to the Power Five, right?
Including bowl games – and including Army, BYU, Liberty, UMass and New Mexico State – the Group of Five was a lousy 24-85 last year against the Power Five programs, but there are wins out there to be had.
In last year’s version, we missed big on one of the top five upset alerts, two of them were close battles, and two were on the Group of Five side.
Here are 35 dangerous ones to watch out for.
35. Utah at Wyoming, Sept. 19
It wasn’t all that terribly long ago that this would’ve been a Mountain West league battle. Utah has come a long way since 2010, but Wyoming is dangerous at home – just at Missouri, who lost last year’s opener in Laramie 37-31.
34. Buffalo at Kansas State, Sept. 5
It’s the first ever meeting between the two, and it’s going to be a dangerous one for Kansas State. It shouldn’t be too bad – it’s better than Buffalo – but it’s going to be a dangerous opener against a potentially the potentially high-powered Bulls.
33. Appalachian State at Wisconsin, Sept. 19
Wisconsin is a killer at home against Group of Five programs – it destroyed Central Michigan an Kent State last year by a combined 109-0. Appalachian State, though, beat North Carolina and South Carolina last year, and it’ll be fantastic again.
32. NC State at Troy, Sept. 19
Is NC State past all of the problems of last year’s 4-8 clunker? It’ll be coming off the ACC opener against Louisville and a battle with Mississippi State before going on the road to deal with Troy. It was a few years ago, but the Trojans shocked Nebraska 24-19.
31. Arizona State at UNLV, Sept. 12
As bad as UNLV was last season, it was able to tag Vanderbilt on the road in a 34-10 shocker. This is just the second time is has ever faced Arizona State, but it won the other meeting back in 2008.
30. Eastern Michigan at Missouri, Sept. 26
How long will it take to get everything up and going at Mizzou under Eli Drinkwitz? Last year’s team started out losing at Wyoming, but this year’s sandwich game comes between SEC East road games at South Carolina and Tennessee. EMU managed to stun Illinois on the road last season.
29. Temple at Miami, Sept. 5
Manny Diaz had the Temple head coaching job for about 30 seconds before the Miami gig opened up. Coming off a rough year, his Canes have to rock in the opener against a program that beat Maryland and Georgia Tech last season. The Owls are 1-13 all-time in the series, only winning the first game 34-0 back in 1930.
28. Washington State at Utah State, Sept. 3
Just how good will Wazzu be out of the gate under new head coach Nick Rolovich? There’s no Jordan Love around anymore for Utah State, but it gets the Pac-12er home. The last time the two met, the Aggies won 34-14. Okay, it was in 1961, but …
27. Louisiana Tech at Baylor, Sept. 26
New Baylor head coach Dave Aranda can’t let his team look ahead to the road game at Oklahoma the following week. Louisiana Tech is good enough to be the biggest star in Conference USA, welcoming back a slew of parts that helped beat Miami to end last year.
26. Houston at Washington State, Sept. 12
There’s no D’Eriq King at quarterback this time around for Houston, but it should be a better all-around team in Year Two under Dana Holgorsen. It was a 31-24 Wazzu win last year, and this time – even though it’s at home – it’ll be coming off a road trip to Utah State.
NEXT: Top 25 College Football Group of Five vs. Power Five Upset Alerts
25. Georgia Southern at Ole Miss, Nov. 21
The last thing any team wants to deal with late in the season in what’s supposed to be a paycheck game is an option offense. Making things extra worse for Ole Miss is the showdown against Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl just five days later.
24. Fresno State at Colorado, Sept. 12
Fresno State was supposed to go through a rebuilding period last year, and that’s exactly what happened in a rough season. However, it pushed both Minnesota and USC in fun games early on. Colorado will be coming off rivalry date at Colorado State and has a trip to Texas A&M to follow.
23. WKU at Indiana, Sept. 12
Indiana starts the season off at Wisconsin and has a date against Ball State in Week 3. Handling the Cardinals shouldn’t be that big a deal, but it’s still an in-state game. WKU hasn’t beaten a Power Five team since it shocked Vanderbilt in the 2015 opener. A few weeks later it lost to Indiana 38-35. This year’s version is going to be terrific.
22. Ohio at Boston College, Sept. 12
BC might need a little while to get up and flying under new head coach Jeff Hafley. It’s only the second time the program has faced Ohio – it lost the first time around back in 1966. It’s been a while since Frank Solich’s Bobcats have been able to take down a Power Five program – Kansas early in 2017 after doing it in 2016 – but this year it catches the Eagles before they have to go to … Kansas.
21. Toledo at Michigan State, Sept. 19
Is the cupboard full for new head coach Mel Tucker? Not really. Michigan State is going to need a little while to get things going, and Toledo is supposed to be the breather. MSU starts out against Northwestern and BYU and has Miami and a trip to Iowa after facing what’s going to be a dangerous Toledo.
20. Air Force at Purdue, Sept. 19
Purdue managed to lose to Nevada last season after turning the ball over a gajillion times, but that was a quirky loss. There wouldn’t be anything stunning if Air Force – who beat Colorado and Washington State last year – pulls this off.
19. Florida Atlantic at Minnesota, Sept. 3
Willie Taggart’s Florida Atlantic team is going to be terrific, but Minnesota is coming off a big season with several of the key parts returning. However, as good as the Gophers were as the season went on, they needed everything in the bag to get past South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern over the first three weeks.
18. Colorado at Colorado State, Sept. 5
Two new head coaches are looking to set an early tone in the rivalry. Normally played in Denver, this year it’ll be in Fort Colins with the pressure almost totally off for Steve Addazio’s Rams. This is supposed to be a rebuilding job at CSU – Colorado’s Karl Dorrell needs to quiet the doubters right away.
17. Syracuse at Western Michigan, Sept. 26
Syracuse destroyed WMU 52-33 last year, but this time around it’s in Kalamazoo. The Broncos should have a whole lot of firepower, and they’ll have a few weeks to revamp a few parts in the secondary. SU has Louisville coming up the following week.
16. Nevada at Arkansas, Sept. 5
Last year it was San Jose State from the Mountain West that managed to shock Arkansas. Nevada got past Purdue to kick off last year, and this season it starts things up with a shot at doing something funky to ruin the start of the Sam Pittman era. The Hogs have a whole lot of work to do.
NEXT: Top 15 College Football Group of Five vs. Power Five Upset Alerts
15. Pitt at Marshall, Sept. 12
Pitt has a way of playing up or down to the competition under Pat Narduzzi. Oh sure, it was able to beat Eastern Michigan, UCF, and Ohio last year, but throw a 17-14 win over Delaware into the mix and there were problems against the teams outside of the Power Five. Marshall welcomes the ACC team into its house.
14. Central Michigan at Northwestern, Sept. 19
1) Are we really sure Northwestern is just going to bounce back from the 2019 disaster? 2) It’s Northwestern vs. a MAC team. It’s 2-3 in its last five games against the conference. 3) Central Michigan got to the MAC Championship last year and should be solid. 4) It’s the game before Northwestern has to go to Penn State.
13. TCU at SMU, Sept. 26
The Mustangs pulled it off last year, and now they get TCU at home. It’s not like it’s a huge road trip for the Big 12er, but after not being able to handle the SMU offense last year in a 41-38 shootout, this is a focus game with the conference season opening up against Oklahoma State the following week.
12. Hawaii at Arizona, Aug. 29
It might have been the best game of 2019, with Arizona’s Khalil Tate coming up a half a yard short of a last-second touchdown in the 45-38 loss. This time Kevin Sumlin and the Wildcats get the Rainbow Warriors in Tucson, but new UH head coach Todd Graham has a decent team to play around with.
11. Northern Illinois at Maryland, Sept. 12
NIU has a habit of being a pain in the butt for the Power Fivers. It battled Vanderbilt last season, gave Utah problems in 2018, beat Nebraska in 2017 and pushed Ohio State hard in 2015. After the way last year went, Maryland has a whole lot to prove early on.
10. Memphis at Purdue, Sept. 12
This wouldn’t even be an upset. It’s a new regime at Memphis, but Purdue still isn’t going to have much of a defense after getting rocked throughout last year. It’ll be a shootout with the both teams likely to trade haymakers.
9. UCLA at San Diego State, Sept. 19
Okay Brady Hoke, can you prove you can keep San Diego State rolling? Under former head coach Rocky Long the Aztecs beat UCLA 23-14 last season. Chip Kelly’s Bruins will have a week off to prepare, but it’s a road game before starting out the Pac-12 season against Stanford.
8. Tulane at Northwestern, Sept. 12
As bad as last year was for Northwestern, it was able to avoid the bad loss to UNLV and UMass. However, beating the Group of Fivers isn’t always a given for the program, and this year – after facing Michigan State on the road – it gets a dangerous Tulane team that gets back a loaded team that should at least go bowling again.
7. UCLA at Hawaii, Sept. 5
Where do you go for fun if you live in LA and go to school in Westwood? Hawaii, but UCLA will have already tuned up against New Mexico State and don’t play at home until the end of September. Hawaii was able to beat Arizona and Oregon State to start out the year 2-0 at home against two Pac-12 teams. All the pressure will be on the Bruin side.
6. UCF at Georgia Tech, Sept. 19
This isn’t higher on the list only because it’s not going to be any sort of an upset. UCF will likely be at least a touchdown favorite against a Yellow Jacket team that will already have faced Clemson and gets North Carolina and Virginia Tech next.
NEXT: Top 5 College Football Group of Five vs. Power Five Upset Alerts
5. Florida State at Boise State, Sept. 19
It was the dehydration game. Florida State roared out of the gate in the opener against Boise State, and then something went terribly wrong. FSU looked like it punched itself out – head coach Willie Taggart later explained that the team was dehydrated – Bronco QB Hank Bachmeier was terrific, and the Mountain West side left Tallahassee with a 36-31 win. Boise State gets the Noles on the blue turf this time around.
4. Appalachian State at Wake Forest, Sept. 11
Appalachian State was able to get by North Carolina and South Carolina last season, and this year’s version should be every bit as good. Wake Forest managed to survive and advance through the first half of last season, but this should be a dead-even game in Winston-Salem.
3. Rutgers at Temple, Sept. 19
Just how fast can Greg Schiano do something positive with Rutgers? There’s going to be a long, long way to go to merely be respectable, and Temple will be good enough in Year Two under Rod Carey to make this easy at home. It was able to stuff Maryland and Georgia Tech last year when they came to Philadelphia, and it should be favored against the Scarlet Knights.
2. Cincinnati at Nebraska, Sept. 26
Alright, Cincinnati. How ready are you to make a national statement? Luke Fickell is still the head coach, a whole lot of good parts are in place after a brilliant 2019, and Nebraska is going to be desperate to keep what should be a hot start going.
The Bearcats got UCLA and UCF last year, but both games were at home. Win this, and it’s on for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six slot up until November 21st when they have an American Athletic Conference battle with …
1. North Carolina at UCF, Sept. 4
You ready to be a player, North Carolina?
It was terrific at times last season in a 7-6 run, and even the losses were tight. But this year it has to kick things off in Orlando against a program that feasts off of opportunities to beat Power Five programs – like last year in a 45-27 win over Stanford.
There’s a problem for the Tar Heels if they lose this – Auburn is up next – but for UCF, a win would likely be the start of something massive. There are trips to Memphis and Houston to deal with, and Cincinnati is going to be a problem, but beat North Carolina and it’ll be business as usual.
