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Tribune News Service
Tribune News Service
Politics
Jeremy Silk Smith

Post-convention polls show dead heat among independents

WASHINGTON _ Independents are still split between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton and almost a quarter are undecided, according to two polls released after both party conventions.

Trump is ahead among self-identified independents, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey. He leads Clinton 41 percent to 39 percent, but 20 percent of independents say they're still undecided.

In a PPP survey from the end of June, independents favored a Democrat over a Republican by 1 percent and 29 percent were still undecided.

In a CBS News poll from before the conventions, Clinton was trailing Trump 33 percent to 22 percent, with Gary Johnson's support at 21 percent. But the 11 percentage point lead that Trump had among independents before the convention has almost evaporated.

The most recent CBS News poll now has Trump leading Clinton with independents 33 percent to 31 percent. Johnson's support fell to 15 percent among independents.

Both polls have Clinton's lead among registered voters at 5 percentage points above Trump.

The CBS News poll also has Clinton 5 points ahead when registered voters were given the choice between Clinton, Trump and Johnson. Clinton pulls down 41 percent, Trump with 36 percent and Johnson broke double-digits with 10 percent.

The PPP survey has Clinton ahead of Trump among registered voters, 46 percent to 41 percent, while 6 percent support Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 2 percent.

With Trump's historic unfavorable ratings with non-white voters, his path to winning this fall is through winning over white voters in record margins.

In the PPP survey, 53 percent of white voters said they will support the Republican nominee for president, which is 6 percentage points lower than what Mitt Romney won in 2012 and 2 percentage points lower than what Sen. John McCain won in 2008, according to exit polling data complied by the New York Times. Only 6 percent of white voters surveyed said they were undecided.

The PPP survey was conducted July 29-30 among 1,276 registered voters and had margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

The CBS News poll conducted July 29-31 among 1,131 registered voters with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

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