After a patchy and late wet season in north-west Queensland, a cautious sense of optimism is starting to creep in with a higher than average rainfall forecast in the coming months.
Last week, the Bureau of Meteorology released a La Nina alert, increasing the likelihood of the often rain-bearing weather system to 70 per cent, which is roughly three times the normal chance.
On top of that forecast, the bureau has also given large parts of western Queensland a more than 70 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall between September and November.
Waiting for the water on the ground
Julia Creek publican and grazier Peter Hayden said a steady stream of locals had been passing through the pub hoping for a turn in the season, after a late wet for the past three years.
"I hope they're right because we really can do with a good season," Mr Hayden said.
"Around Richmond and Julia Creek we've had some really trying years for the past four or five years and we must near a good decent rain."
But My Hayden said he was going to wait until the water was on the ground before the weather influenced the decision making on his cattle properties.
"The weather forecasts are getting better, but it's still doubtful whether they can predict long-range forecasts," he said.
"I don't think I will be budgeting on their forecasts."
Big wet a worry for cane
While many graziers have fingers and toes crossed for the rain to fall this summer, sugar cane growers on the east coast are watching the weather with more apprehension.
Paul Gregory, a cane grower south of Cairns, said the main concern was the possibility of early rainfall in spring.
"That's our peak harvest time, and we're finishing off our planting for the year," Mr Gregory said.
"If we get sustained and unseasonal rainfall it severely inhibits the young plant cane and it totally devalues the crop that we are currently cutting."
But Mr Gregory was not wishing the weather system to stay away from the area entirely and said sustained rainfall in November would be a boost.
"If we get some October or November storms as a forerunner to the wet season that would help establish a crop for the next year," he said.
"One of the pre-cursors of a big crop for the following years is some late spring rain."
Managing expectations
At this point, the outlook is only a forecast. There is still a chance that a La Nina may not form and the early onset of the wet season may not come.
Megan Munchenberg is a "climate mate" with the University of Southern Queensland, and her job is to provide an interface between climatologists and the public.
"This is literally delivered as a guideline and an expectation," Ms Munchenberg said.
"With any forecast, there's always variables within climate that can happen and change, and local conditions can impact local rainfall."
Ms Munchenberg said more localised research could be done on the Bureau of Meteorology website.
"You can actually have a look at past accuracy," she said.
"If you're in a low accuracy part of Australia then maybe you won't put as much confidence in that forecast."
