President Donald Trump's trade war polices may be in flux, with the U.S.-China tariff deal last week changing things radically. But there is unlikely to be a "deluge" of cargo coming from China to the U.S. And there will most likely be "lower inventory across a variety of retail sectors" in the run-up to the summer and holiday shopping seasons, according to Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka.
Seroka, speaking during a media briefing Monday on tariff developments, said that amid the fast moving environment of Trump's trade war policies "it's a challenge for businesses, economists and ports to forecast, at least for the short term."
"There'll be lower inventory across a variety of retail sectors and in the parts supply part of our business for American factories, that'll leave us with fewer selections of products and likely higher prices," Seroka said. "For now, uncertainty remains in every business meeting that I have, and trying to find a way to make the best decisions for companies possible still remains elusive."
Trade War Simmers Down
The comments from the Port of Los Angeles head come after the U.S. and China last week decided to reduce tariff rates on each other for 90 days. It was a dramatic de-escalation of a trade war between the world's two largest economies. The U.S. cut the 145% Trump tariff on most Chinese imports to 30% on May 14, including a 20% tariff tied to fentanyl. China will cut its 125% tariff on U.S. goods to 10%. The U.S. tariff cuts don't apply to 25% sector duties on steel, aluminum and more.
Seroka confirmed that some U.S. retailers have decided to restart shipments from China but that it is far from across the board.
"You may start seeing hospital supplies flow more quickly than some other products. Some manufactured parts and components, because inventory levels are dipping down, and when you look at a line shutting down at a manufacturing plant that could be between $2 million and $5 million in losses per hour," Seroka said Monday.
90-Day Tariff Pause 'Not A Long Time'
He added that May is traditionally the month where retailers make a lot of purchase orders for the year-end and Christmas holiday shopping season.
"It typically takes about three months to send an order to a factory, have those goods made and get them ready to ship from Asia to the United States. So this 90-day pause, It's not a long time in our business," he said.
Trade War: Shipping Picks Up
Seroka previously warned during the port's board of harbor commissioners meeting on April 24 that ships from China to the U.S. basically ceased.
As of May 19, the Port of Los Angeles, the major U.S. entry point for cargo ships from China and Asia, and the busiest port in the U.S., expects import volumes for the week of May 18 to May 24 to increase 24% from the prior week. Volumes are also expected to jump about 59% from a year ago. However, for the following week, the port expects a 33% falloff vs. the same week in 2024 and a 42% decline vs. the previous week.
Reuters reported Wednesday that U.S. bookings for cargo ships from China have jumped around 300% in the aftermath of the announcement of the U.S.-China trade deal, according to container-tracking software provider Vizion.
"Given existing backlogs and the lead-up to peak season, we'll likely see a major surge in shipping volumes from China to the United States. Some carriers have already announced continuations of suspended service loops," global logistics firm Flexport reported last week.
Flexport Chief Executive Ryan Peterson added on X Friday that ocean freight bookings from China to the U.S. are up 275% this week compared to last week.
President Trump's China Tariff Cuts Revive Shipping Sector, But Uncertainty Remains
Trump Tariffs And Shipping Stocks
Walmart CFO John David Rainey told CNBC on Thursday that tariffs are "still too high," adding that consumers will start seeing higher prices later this month. The comment came as the Dow Jones retail giant reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings. Target earnings are due May 21.
Trump lashed out at the company on Truth Social over the weekend, saying that "between Walmart and China they should, as is said 'EAT THE TARIFFS,' and not charge valued customers ANYTHING."
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday on "Meet The Press" that he was on the "phone with Doug McMillon, the CEO of Walmart, yesterday, and Walmart is, in fact, going to, as you describe it, eat some of the tariffs, just as they did in '18, '19, and '20." Bessent acknowledged that consumers will likely see some tariff-related price hikes.
Meanwhile, container liner and logistics company ZIM Integrated Shipping said early Monday it is "continuously" looking at how to best allocate shipping capacity and cargo flow from China and Southeast Asian markets into the U.S. and that "despite the heightened level of uncertainty" around Trump's trade war policies it is sticking to its 2025 guidance. ZIM reported a 226% EPS gain for the first quarter on Monday.
Shipping Play Shakes Off Trump Tariffs With 226% EPS Growth
ZIM Integrated Shipping climbed nearly 6% to 19.37 during Monday's stock market action, moving back above its 200-day line.
Shippers Gain After Trump Trade War Shift
Shipping stocks were big winners last week after Trump changed his trade war policies with China.
The 38 stocks in the IBD-tracked Transportation-Ship industry group have collectively declined nearly 6% during 2025. That puts the sector at a weak No. 170 out of 197 ranked industries.
Domestic freight company Old Dominion Freight Line advanced more than 8% during last week's stock market trading while peer ArcBest popped 8.5%. Among other truckers, J.B. Hunt gained around 10% last week with Schneider National advancing 6%. Meanwhile, logistics specialist XPO Logistics popped 15%.
All of these trucking-related stocks were slightly higher or lower on Monday.
Farm products exporter Archer-Daniels-Midland edged lower after climbing 3.3% last week.
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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