MIAMI – After a trek over Hispaniola’s mountains, Tropical Depression Fred remained “poorly organized” Thursday morning as it skirted the north coast of Cuba and headed toward South Florida.
The weather system had weakened considerably, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. EDT advisory, and its circulation was barely closed. “The structure is currently closer to that of an open wave than a normal tropical cyclone,” the hurricane center said in its analysis.
Still, the system was projected to strengthen and again become a tropical storm by Friday night as it moves through the Florida Straits toward the Florida Keys. That likely means a rain-soaked weekend for South Florida.
“Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises across southern Florida,” according to the hurricane center.
The rugged terrain of Hispaniola took a toll on the storm, the hurricane center noted on Thursday morning, and Haiti and the Dominican Republic was still facing heavy rainfall and the chance of flash floods and mudslides. A Hurricane Hunter plane flew into the ragged weather system early Thursday to take measurements.
Located in the waters between Haiti, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas, Fred slowed slightly and was moving toward the west-northwest at about 14 miles per hour. Its maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph with higher gusts.
On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the southeastern Bahamas Thursday and move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later Thursday and Friday, when it’s expected to slow and gradually turn to the northwest.
The forecast calls for Fred to pass over the Florida Keys on Saturday, entering the Gulf of Mexico as it heads toward another possible landfall in the Panhandle early next week. In his analysis, forecaster Jack Beven noted that wind conditions don’t bode well for Fred to get stronger than a tropical storm.
“The intensity guidance has trended weaker since the last advisory, with none of the guidance currently calling for Fred to reach hurricane strength,” Bevins wrote.
Still, officials in South Florida said they were tracking the system closely, as the state’s governor has again suggested residents “review their disaster plans.”
“Periods of heaviest rain are expected Saturday into Saturday night,” Miami-Dade County’s emergency management department tweeted on Thursday.
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