Prediction market giant Polymarket opened a short-lived pop-up bar in Washington DC, last weekend, but flubbed its opening the same night it invited the press and its investors out to spend the night betting and drinking.
On Friday, Polymarket debuted its "Monitoring the Situation" pop-up bar in Washington, D.C. The name is a reference to what has become a colloquial way of watching the horrors of the modern world play out on phones and television screens.
Now, thanks to sites like Polymarket and Kalshi, people can bet on the outcomes of virtually anything, horrors or otherwise.
That was the idea for the bar, which advertised gaggles of screens on which news broadcasts, flight trackers, and global data would stream as gamblers watched with drinks in hand.
However, in an unpredictable twist, electrical issues forced the bar to open to the press and others without Wi-Fi or television feeds.
The bar ultimately closed hours early at 9 p.m. on Friday to allow staff to work out the electrical issues and get ready for its second day of operation.
On Saturday morning, Polymarket confirmed to NBC News that the "situation monitors are now on and ready to be monitored" for that night's crowd.
In addition to the press and investors at the event, prediction market enthusiasts and generally curious sorts also attended the event.
One 20-something D.C. resident told NBC News they worked in risk analysis and "loved the concept" of the bar, but questioned the long-term viability of prediction markets like Polymarket.
"I think the company is predatory," the resident, who withheld their name, told the outlet. "This is all going to go up in flames."
Another man, who refused to identify himself, told NBC News that "sometimes I predict people who are going to attend the Oscars," and added that "I have a guy who knows who's going to be there."
The reporter asked if that would be benefiting from insider information. "Why wouldn't you?" the man replied.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket announced on Monday that they were working to root out insider betting on the platforms.
Kalshi said it would ban political candidates from trading on their own campaigns, and it would preemptively block anyone involved in college or professional sports from trading contracts related to their sport or employers.
Polymarket announced broader bans. Its rules now say that users are prohibited from trading on contracts where they might have confidential information or could potentially influence an event's outcome. The prohibition would affect athletes but could also affect company officials, policymakers, or anyone with enough influence to affect the outcome of an event.
Earlier this week, Senator Chris Murphy and Congressman Greg Casar introduced legislation that would ban predictions and betting on the topics of war, terrorism, assassinations, and anything that might be considered a "government action."
The bans come after bettors made hundreds of thousands betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the U.S. airstrikes on Iran just hours before they occurred, leading many to speculate that insiders were profiting off their knowledge.
One user by the name of “Magamyman” pocketed more than $500,000 after correctly guessing when the U.S. would strike Iran, and another made $123,317 after they predicted that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would no longer be in power by the end of March.
The bar reopened on Saturday for more situation monitoring, though the promised X feeds and Bloomberg Terminal data streams were lacking. The bar's numerous TVs lost power again midway through the night.
It's not clear if Polymarket will run a second round of its pop-up.
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