Polls show the candidate from South Korea’s main left-wing opposition party emerging as the clear favourite in next month’s presidential election, a snap vote that many hope will draw a line under one of the most tumultuous political crises in the history of the country.
Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae Myung, 61, enjoyed the support of 49 per cent of the public in the latest Gallup Korea poll, 14 percentage points ahead of his main conservative rival Kim Moon Soo of the People Power Party on 35 per cent.
On 3 June, South Korea will finally elect a replacement for Yoon Suk Yeol who was ousted following his impeachment for trying to impose martial law in December last year, a move that plunged the country into unprecedented political turmoil.
The snap election was called in April after the Constitutional Court issued a ruling to formally remove Mr Yoon from office.
Mr Lee of the Democratic Party and Mr Moon of Mr Yoon’s People Power Party have emerged as the top contenders in the elections in the deeply polarised country.
Mr Lee’s position as favourite has held firm since the beginning of the election campaign on 12 May – at one point he enjoyed a more than 20 percentage point lead in polls.
Mr Lee narrowly lost to Mr Yoon in the 2022 presidential election with a margin of 0.7 per cent of the votes polled and survived an assassination attempt during a visit to a construction site on Gadeok Island in Busan when he was stabbed in the neck in 2024.
Known for being outspoken and positioning himself as anti-elitist, Mr Lee is hailed by his supporters as a working class hero with his promises to make a "real Republic of Korea" with jobs and a fair society.
Mr Lee has advocated for using fiscal policy to support the economy and bringing to justice anyone involved in Mr Yoon's botched attempt to declare martial law in December.
His rival, Mr Kim, is a former labour minister under the Yoon administration and has been polling higher than other conservative contenders after he criticised the arrest of Mr Yoon and the impeachment hearings conducted by the Constitutional Court.
He positioned himself as the president for the economy, promising to create a business-friendly environment.
The Gallup poll has the New Reform Party’s Lee Jun Seok in third, with 11 per cent favourable votes.
The survey was one of the last major polls to be published before a week-long blackout period that begins on Wednesday, when new polls are banned from publication by law.
Mr Kim has sought to widen his support base by uniting forces the Reform Party’s Mr Lee, a move that could make the race a virtual tie, but his overtures have been rebuffed so far.
Yet it’s not all good news for the Democratic Party, with an internal rift emerging after former prime minister Lee Nak Yon, who represents a minority faction, announced his support for Mr Kim on Tuesday.
He said Mr Lee's tendency to abuse majority power must be checked.
Still, Mr Lee was likely to maintain a comfortable lead in the absence of a major unexpected turn that could shake up the race, said Choi Jin, director of the Seoul-based Presidential Leadership Institute.
"It seems almost impossible at this point that (Lee) will make a fatal mistake or (Kim) will pull off something that will touch the heart of the whole country," Choi said.
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