Nawrocki ahead in presidential run-off - latest story
Jakub Krupa and Shaun Walker in Warsaw
Overnight projections from Poland’s crucial presidential run-off showed a narrow lead for the right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki, as votes continued to be counted.
A set of preliminary results combining exit polls and counted ballots, published at 1am local time on Monday morning (midnight BST), gave Nawrocki a 51-49% lead over liberal contender Rafał Trzaskowski, an ally of the ruling government led by Donald Tusk.
Nawrocki’s lead was a dramatic reversal of projections, after an exit poll, published as voting concluded, appeared to show Trzaskowski would edge the contest with a 0.6% advantage.
A Nawrocki victory would also reinvigorate the Law and Justice party (PiS) which ruled Poland for eight years between 2015 and 2023 and clashed with Brussels overrule of law and other issues.
It would also significantly complicate the work of Tusk’s government. While the presidential role is largely ceremonial, it does have some influence over foreign and defence policy, as well as the critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a 60% majority in parliament, which Tusk’s government does not have.
The full results are expected to be announced during the day on Monday, and the figures could change again as more votes are counted, although the pollster Ipsos claimed its final poll had a margin of error of just 0.5% for each candidate’s totals.
According to official results overnight, with ballots counted at nearly nine-tenths of polling stations, Nawrocki had 52.1% to Trzaskowski’s 47.9%.
Here is our report as of 2:30am local time in Warsaw.
Updated
A potential Nawrocki win is also likely to be welcomed by the US.
A month ago, he met US president Donald Trump at the White House, and in the last few days got public backing from Kristi Noem, the US secretary of homeland security in the Trump administration.
Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Rzeszów, Poland, Noem said:
I just had the opportunity to meet with Karol, and listen, he needs to be the next president of Poland. Do you understand me?
She then added:
Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol if you make him the leader of this country. You can be that shining city on a hill that the rest of Europe and the world will watch and know how strong you are.
The defeated ultranationalist candidate in Romania’s presidential election rerun George Simion is among the first European politicians to comment on the expected result of the Polish election.
He tweeted:
Poles are very close to a historic victory.
Pray for Poland, for freedom, common sense and national sovereignty! @NawrockiKn
You remember that rural municipality of Siekierczyn in south-western Poland that I mentioned earlier, where the first round vote two weeks ago was won by Trzaskowski by a single vote?
I have just checked their results tonight and it swung for Nawrocki, who won it by 72 votes.
Karol Nawrocki widens narrow lead in early morning poll - what we know so far
The populist-right opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice party (PiS), has widened his lead over the pro-European Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski in the late, late exit poll by Ipsos, commissioned by major broadcasters.
The latest update, published past 1am local time, puts him 2 percentage points ahead of the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by the coalition government led by Donald Tusk (1:10).
The figure is the pollster’s final estimate for the race, as vote counts continue across the country (1:37).
If confirmed, a Nawrocki win would be a major blow for the country’s pro-EU government and prolong the current political deadlock in the country (00:07) as well as complicate the country’s position in Europe (00:29).
The results comes after a dramatic turnaround given the first exit poll published just as the polls closed had suggested a narrow win for Trzaskowski by 0.6pp (21:00), making him declare a victory (21:02).
Official results will keep coming throughout the night, with the final declaration expected late morning or early afternoon on Monday.
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Late late poll - snap analysis
If you’re confused about all these exit and late polls and extremely complex ways in which they are calculated: hey, welcome to Polish politics.
But let me try to explain.
The late late poll is essentially the pollster, Ipsos, going back to the polling stations they conducted the exit poll in, checking the official results at 90% of them, and adjusting their calculations for what they find.
Effectively, that’s their best estimate of what they think the result is going to be.
The margin of error here is meant to be 0.5% each way for each candidate, meaning that – unless the poll is completely wrong – the race could be over.
Our attention will now be shifting towards the official results as reported by the National Electoral Commission, or PKW.
As of 1:30am local time, they have received reports from 61.2% of all polling stations, and have Nawrocki way ahead at 54.3% to 45.7% for Trzaskowski.
The result should definitely get much closer as large polling stations in big cities – natural strongholds for Trzaskowski – report their results later (due to sheer numbers of votes that need to be counted).
You can follow them on PKW website here, or on a (much easier to use) Poland Elects website here.
It’s very hard to see how Trzaskowski could possibly close that gap.
The final results are expected by late morning or early afternoon on Monday.
Updated
Late late poll: Nawrocki widens lead to 2pp
Pollster Ipsos, working for three of Poland’s largest broadcasters, has just updated it’s late late poll at 1am which includes some partial official results, and it shows an even bigger Nawrocki lead: 51% to 49%.
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Sign of rightwing alliance to challenge Tusk at 2027 parliamentary election
One thing to note from both exit polls is that Nawrocki is projected to have won over almost 90% (!) of the people who voted for the libertarian far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederation party (“Konfederacja”), who came third in the first round vote two weeks ago.
Here’s more on his phenomenon, which I studied going to his home town of Toruń.
Mentzen interviewed both candidates on his YouTube and eventually declined to formally endorse either of them, saying he needs to position himself as an alternative to the duopoly of the main two parties.
But it seems like his electorate has a clear favourite.
If PiS takes the presidency, as the late poll suggests, the two parties could combine again – formally or not – before the 2027 parliamentary election to form a new rightwing coalition to challenge Donald Tusk’s politically diverse and fragile government.
One to watch.
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Controversies surrounding Nawrocki’s candidacy
If Nawrocki gets confirmed as the president-elect, expect his critics to get back to asking questions about some of the scandals that affected his campaign in the last few weeks before the vote.
He faced questions over the circumstances in which he bought an apartment from an elderly man, with suggestions that he acted improperly and failed to meet his obligations to provide care as part of the transaction. He denies the allegations.
He was also hit by media reports that he was allegedly involved in procuring sex workers while working as a student security guard at a hotel (a claim he also strongly denies).
It was also revealed that Nawrocki took part in an organised fight between 140 football hooligans 20 years ago as part of a firm linked to Lechia Gdańsk football club.
Responding to criticism, he called it an act of “noble combat” and referenced his past as an amateur boxer.
Prof Aleks Szczerbiak from University of Sussex tried to explain to me earlier this week why none of that changed his ratings among his core electorate:
“You get to a tipping point … where a lot of people start to think they are just coming up with stuff to discredit this guy …
[Hooliganism] does fit with his image that ‘this is a tough guy who takes no prisoners, not afraid to go into a fight representing me and my interests’ … It’s actually a double-edged sword.”
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Foreign policy scenario in case of Nawrocki’s win
And here are the relevant paragraphs from Jon Henley’s foreign policy analysis published this weekend:
“A Nawrocki victory would put the stalemate that has existed between government and president since 2023 on a much more permanent footing,” said Nicolai von Ondarza of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).
“It would change the political calculation within Poland itself – and it would refocus European attention on the unfulfilled promises on rule-of-law that are actually the basis of Poland’s renewed relationship with the EU.”
While EU leaders would be unlikely to turn the screw on Tusk (“The last thing they would want to do is weaken him further,” Von Ondarza said), the prime minister’s influence in key decisions, such as the bloc’s future budget, would inevitably wane.
Nawrocki would back the PiS government’s approach of “building alternative EU alliances”, for example with Hungary and Slovakia, “as the most effective way of advancing Poland’s interests”, said Aleks Szczerbiak of the University of Sussex.
Szczerbiak added that Nawrocki would certainly also prioritise maintaining close ties with the US, which he has said is Poland’s only credible security guarantor, and “oppose the development of a European defence capability outside Nato structures”.
Piotr Buras of the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank agreed: “Nawrocki has been heavily critical of Tusk’s backing for Europe’s strategic security shift away from reliance on the US. He is a Trumpist; he was invited to the White House. There will be a constant tension there, around security policy.”
Tensions between Tusk and Nawrocki would be exacerbated by splits that already exist within the prime minister’s disparate coalition of centrists, progressive leftists and conservatives, with policy over Ukraine already a victim of political divisions.
There is broad consensus in Poland on the need to continue military aid to Ukraine. But Tusk himself has had to acknowledge public concern around the coalition of the willing, saying Poland would not participate, and over Ukraine’s EU membership.
Nawrocki has gone further, tapping into Polish anti-Ukrainian sentiment over refugees and strongly criticising Kyiv and its EU and Nato accession plans.
Updated
The former Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, of the Law and Justice party, claimed in an earlier interview with Poland’s public broadcaster TVP that as much as “10 to 15 per cent” of exit poll respondents declined to tell pollsters who they voted for.
If confirmed, this could offer an explanation for the massive swing in the late poll, as that’s when the earlier numbers got adjusted after looking at the actual early results.
I’m sure we will hear more about this tonight (and in the coming days).
Updated
Domestic scenario in case of Nawrocki’s win
A quick reminder why does it all matter, from my curtain raiser before today’s vote:
While the role of the Polish president is largely ceremonial, it carries some influence over foreign and defence policy and a critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a 60% majority in parliament, which the current government, led by Donald Tusk, does not have.
At stake is whether Tusk’s government will be able to make progress on its electoral promises on the rule of law and social issues, including abortion and LGBTQ rights, after 18 months of difficult cohabitation with the opposition president, Andrzej Duda.
A Nawrocki win would prolong the deadlock, making it difficult if not impossible for the government to pass any big reforms before the 2027 parliamentary election.
“Tusk knows the stakes and that if Nawrocki wins, he’s got a lame-duck administration for the next couple of years. And it will be worse than with Duda as Nawrocki will come in fresh, with a new mandate from what effectively turned into a referendum on the government,” Prof Aleks Szczerbiak, who teaches east and central European politics at the University of Sussex, said.
Updated
Dramatic lead change, but race still too close to call – what we know so far
The populist-right opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki has been given a narrow lead in the Polish presidential race after an updated late exit poll commissioned by the country’s three leading broadcasters unexpectedly put him ahead of the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski.
The late poll – taking into account some first official results – has Nawrocki ahead at 50.7% to Trzaskowski’s 49.3%.
In an earlier exit poll, Trzaskowski led by 50.3% to 49.7%.
The results continue to be within the margin of error for the poll, as the race remains too close to call.
Further late late poll numbers are expected between midnight and 1am local time (11pm to midnight BST).
Updated
I told you it was going to be a long night.
If late poll holds, we will work to bring down Tusk’s government, senior PiS MP says
If you’re still digesting what this could mean for Poland if these late poll numbers get confirmed, let me help you.
A senior PiS lawmaker and former education minister, Przemysław Czarnek, just told TV Republika:
“If these polls hold and Karol Nawrocki becomes president-elect tomorrow morning … I can reassure you that maybe not starting tomorrow, but from Tuesday, we will begin very energetic work in order to give the Polish people another gift – the end of Tusk’s government.”
He suggested the Law and Justice party would approach some government MPs to offer them “a longer perspective of serving Poland over the next years” in a hope to get them to defect and form a new rightwing coalition in the parliament.
Updated
Late poll plot twist – snap analysis
This remains still too close to call, but that’s a big, big plot twist.
Just to help you understand what’s going on: the late poll is essentially the exit poll, updated with partial results from 50% of polling stations where they conducted the poll.
Some PO lawmakers appearing on TV over the last hour or so kind of implied that was expected as the first polling stations to report are usually smaller and rural, so naturally PiS-leaning, but it will all change again when the larger polling stations report their numbers.
Having said that, that’s a big swing.
We will get another update – a new late, late poll – at about 1am, with some results from 90% of the polling stations that they ran the exit poll at.
Updated
Late poll: Nawrocki in lead
Plot twist: Karol Nawrocki has now gone into lead in the late poll by Ipsos, as reported by Polsat.
50.7% for Nawrocki, 49.3% for Trzaskowski.
This is still too close to call, mind.
Updated
Election postcard from Siekierczyn where single vote decided first round vote
If you’re thinking: oh, it’s close, but just how close could it get?, let me tell you: it can be very, very close.
In the first round vote, two weeks ago, there were four places in Poland where there was only a single vote of difference between the two leading candidates.
Before the second-round vote today, I visited Siekierczyn to speak with voters about their views and their hopes for Poland.
You can catch up with my report here:
Updated
The head of Nawrocki’s campaign and a Law and Justice MP, Paweł Szefernaker, has just offered an insight into why their team think this result could be different.
He argues that exit polls historically undervalued conservative candidates and so with such a tiny difference between the candidates here, it’s simply too close to call.
Let’s wait and see then.
Updated
Exit poll data – snap analysis
I have looked at the underlying data behind the Ipsos exit poll and it laid bare the extraordinary level of divisions within Polish society.
While women voted for the pro-European centrist Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, by 54% to 46%, men sided with Karol Nawrocki by the same ratio.
When you look at the education levels, Trzaskowski came first among those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher (63% to 37%), but Nawrocki won among all other groups.
And so on. In almost every single category, you have extremely polarising results.
Higher-level executives? Trzaskowski win 65% to 35%. Company owners? Trzaskowski again, by 57% to 43%.
But farmers? 79% to 21% for Nawrocki. Employees? 68% to 32% for Nawrocki.
Finally, in the buildup to the vote, there was a lot of chat about vote transfers from other candidates, particularly the libertarian far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen who came third in the first round, with 13.47% of the both.
Mentzen hosted both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki for one-on-one interviews on his YouTube channel, but it seems that his electorate had a clear preference for Nawrocki, siding with him by 88% to 12%.
Updated
The former Polish president Aleksander Kwaśniewski (1995-2005) also strikes a cautious note in his first comments, saying he would urge candidates to wait for the official results as it is too close to call.
He says Poland is more divided than ever, as both leading parties have pursued a polarising agenda for the last two decades.
He says he hopes to see the new president make some gestures to unite the country, with a cross-party office to support him in his function.
Updated
First reactions – in pictures
Updated
Here is our first story from Warsaw, from Shaun Walker and I if you want to catch up on the basic facts:
A senior Ipsos executive, Joanna Skrzyńska, tells TVN24 that if this projected result remains so close when the late poll drops at 11pm local time, it will in effect remain too close to call.
We may have to wait for the official results tomorrow morning before confidently declaring who has won it, she adds.
Get some snacks, we’re in for a long ride.
Updated
Exit poll: 70,000-100,000 votes’ difference between candidates
If you’re wondering just how tight this election is, the two exit polls say it is between 70,000 and 100,000 votes.
In a country of 37 million, with 28.3 million eligible voters.
Wow.
Updated
Before the exit polls dropped, I told you about all the speculations on turnout.
For what it’s worth, the Ipsos exit poll says it will end up being 72.8%, which would be the highest turnout for a presidential election ever (beating 68.23% in 1995).
A quick summary of all we know so far is at the top of this blog.
A late poll – updated with partial results from some polling stations – is expected at about 11pm local time, so in just under 90 minutes.
Updated
Polish presidential race too close to call – what we know so far
The Polish presidential race is too close to call, with two exit polls showing the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, very marginally ahead of the historian and former amateur boxer Karol Nawrocki.
The polls show government-aligned Trzaskowski leading 50.3% to 49.7% (Ipsos) and 50.17% to 49.83% (OGB), with the 2% margin of error (21:00 and 21:01).
Trzaskowski declared himself a winner (21:02) as he called it a “special moment” in Polish history and pledged to push ahead with reforms (21:16).
But Nawrocki, the opposition candidate, did not concede in his first speech, claiming he could still win the race as the results get counted overnight (21:21), a view also expressed by the Law and Justice leader, Jarosław Kaczyński (21:26).
Updated
This will be a very long night.
There is definitely no appetite to concede just yet.
Speaking after Nawrocki, the Law and Justice (PiS) party leader and former prime minister, Jarosław Kaczyński, said he was confident “this night … we will win this election”.
He hopes to see the candidates swap when the late poll about 11pm local time gets published. Let’s see.
The crowd at the party’s HQ is chanting: “We’ve won.”
“Yes, we have won. We have won, because we are right, because we speak the truth about Poland, about its future, about its present, and about all that is wrong with our country today,” he responds.
He then talks of what he sees as “the Niagara of lies” hitting Nawrocki’s campaign from mainstream media.
Updated
Nawrocki does not concede in first reaction
But Nawrocki doesn’t seem to be that keen to concede just yet.
He says he remains confident his team will be victorious at the end of the night and block what he says is Donald Tusk’s attempt to “close the system” with control over both the government and the presidency.
As he thanked his supporters, Nawrocki also further attacked his political rivals for “taking money away from us, unleashing the institutions of the Polish state on us, lying”.
He also says it was a success to “unite the patriotic camp in Poland, the camp of people who want a normal Poland, without illegal immigrants”.
Updated
In his speech, Trzaskowski says:
“This is a special moment in the history of Poland. I am convinced that this will allow us to move forward like a torpedo and focus primarily on the future.”
He pledges to “unite, build, and be the president of all Polish women and men”.
Updated
Look, I’m sorry to be the boring and responsible guy, but for all we know, this is WELL within the margin of error for both polls and technically remains too close to call.
As explained earlier, they said it was +/- 2% for each candidate, so even 52:48 would effectively be too close to call.
Trzaskowski seems to be very confident, though, as he continues his victory speech with long thanks for his wife, kids, family, and his staff.
He says this result will allow Poland to push ahead with reforms, as he promises to bring the two halves of the country together.
I hate how this phrase gets used in this context, but given how close the race seems to be … it really is Poles apart!
Rafał Trzaskowski: "we've won!"
Despite the absolutely minimal projected margin of victory in the exit poll, Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski declares himself the winner.
“We’ve won!”, he starts his speech in Warsaw.
Second exit poll: too close to call
Second exit poll – OGB for Republika – backs this.
It’s too close to call.
Rafał Trzaskowski 50.17%
Karol Nawrocki 49.83%
That’s about 70,000 votes. In a country of 37 million.
Updated
Exit poll: Polish presidential election too close to call
Too close to call is the verdict.
Rafał Trzaskowski 50.3%
Karol Nawrocki 49.7%
That’s Ipsos for TVP, TVN and Polsat.
Updated
Any moment now…
Are you ready?
Exit poll is imminent.
What does it matter in terms of European politics?
Poland’s presidential election runoff could have far-reaching implications for its place in Europe – either cementing the country’s hard-won seat at the EU’s top table, or heralding a return to altogether trickier times.
The return of Tusk, elected on a promise to undo most of the PiS-era reforms, led to a sea change in relations, with the EU rapidly unblocking more than €100bn of funds it had frozen in retaliation for Poland’s backsliding on democratic norms.
Bolstered by a thriving economy, rising prosperity and its strategic importance in the resistance to Russia’s war on Ukraine, Warsaw has transformed itself in two short years into one of the EU’s most influential capitals, best buddies with Berlin and Paris.
But its full return to the EU fold can be complete only if Tusk can deliver on those key reforms – in particular, rolling back PiS’s politicisation of the court system – that have so far been blocked by the outgoing PiS-aligned president, Andrzej Duda.
Why does it matter domestically?
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said after the first round of the vote that the next two weeks would decide the future of Poland.
So let me give you some context on why it matters so much.
While the role of the Polish president is largely ceremonial, it carries some influence over foreign and defence policy and a critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a majority of three-fifths in parliament, which the current government does not have.
At stake is whether Tusk’s government will be able to make progress on its electoral promises on the rule of law and social issues, including abortion and LGBTQ rights, after 18 months of difficult cohabitation with the opposition president, Andrzej Duda.
A win for the opposition candidate, Karol Nawrocki, would prolong the current deadlock, making it difficult for the government to pass any major reforms before the 2027 parliamentary election.
But a win for the government candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, would open the way for the government to go ahead with the reforms in a bid to show their competence ahead of the 2027 vote.
Final minutes of Polish election - in pictures
Record-high presidential turnout in reach
One factor that got a lot of attention in the build up to the vote is the turnout.
The National Electoral Commission said it was 54.91% at 5pm, the highest-ever figure for Polish presidentials – but just below the all-time-high of the 2023 parliamentary election.
If you’re interested in exact numbers, it’s 2.8pp higher than at the same stage of the previous presidential election in 2020 (52.1%), and 4.2pp up than in the first round of this year’s vote, two weeks ago (50.7%).
It could well end up being the highest ever turnout for the presidentials. For reference, it was 68.2% in 2020.
What does it mean? Well – it could mean different things, and we would need to get into the weeds on geographical distribution, and so on.
So best not to speculate and keep it simple – and wait.
We’re just under 20 minutes away from the polls closing.
How to read exit poll
For all the understandable focus on the exit poll at 9pm (8pm BST), let’s face one thing: yes, it will give us an indication on where the pollsters think we are, but do not be surprised if their top line is well within the margin of error.
On Friday, Ipsos Poland – which runs the main exit poll for three broadcasters, TVP, TVP and Polsat – warned that the exit poll has +/- 2% error for each candidate, with the later late exit poll – expected two hours later – narrowing it down to +/- 1%.
Given how close this race has been, it is not inconceivable that the difference between the two candidates will still be within that margin, and that means we will have to wait a bit longer.
Ipsos themselves said that, of course, they were well prepared for the challenge ahead, but would still need a bit more luck than usual.
There is also a second exit poll, by OGB for Republika (same caveats and rules on margins of error apply). They were pretty close in the first round, so I will bring you both sets of figures.
For context, here is our poll tracker looking at all the polls conducted and published before the country went into electoral silence on Friday night.
60 minutes to go.
Both candidates cast their votes earlier today, surrounded by their closest family members.
And both of them voted in Warsaw, where they will also host their results parties tonight.
Updated
Poland chooses its next president
Good evening, or dobry wieczór, from Warsaw, Poland.
We are less than 90 minutes away from the polls closing in what is the expected to be the closest Polish presidential election after the fall of communism in 1989.
The race pits the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by Donald Tusk’s politically-diverse governing coalition, against the historian and former amateur boxer Karol Nawrocki, endorsed by the populist-right Law and Justice (PiS) party that governed the country between 2015 and 2023.
Reporting from Warsaw, I will bring you all the key updates throughout the evening as we hope to find out who will be the next president of Poland.
Why does it matter, I hear you ask? Well, it’s Europe’s sixth largest economy, the highest GDP spender on defence within Nato, and a (so far) supportive ally of Ukraine. That’s to start with.
You can read our primer on what it means for Poland’s domestic politics and the position of the current government, led by former European Council president Donald Tusk, here.
If you fancy a broader look at Poland’s place in Europe and what tonight’s result could mean for that, here’s a broader analysis on that issue.
If you don’t want to read the entire thing just yet, don’t worry – I will bring you some key bullet points here.
The polls close 9pm local (8pm BST), and we will get exit polls numbers straight away.
It’s Sunday, 1 June 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here.
Let’s go. Zaczynamy.
