Afternoon summary
For a full list of all the stories covered on the blog today, do scroll through the list of key event headlines near the top of the blog.
Why is Farage becoming less popular?
Here is another question from a reader.
Even allowing for the investigations into Farage by the Guardian (which he would always dismiss on account of the paper’s politics), to what extent is his decline in popularity shaped by the fact that his supporters amongst the right-wing press appear to have turned on him in favour of the so-called ‘Keminaissance’ for the Tories? And why has it only happened now?
I think there are many reasons why Nigel Farage, and Reform UK generally, are less popular now than they were at the end of 2025 and the start of 2026. Here is a rough list, which is more chronological than in order of importance.
1) Kemi Badenoch’s approval ratings as Tory leader improving a lot over the past 12 months. This has not helped the party’s overall ratings much, but she is more popular with Reform-leaning voters than she was, and there is less talk now of the Tories disappearing as a major political party.
2) Small boat arrival numbers going down. Migration is Reform’s key issue; without it, they don’t have a distinctive message. It has not disappeared as a political topic, but the fall in small boat arrival numbers has made it less salient.
3) The revelations about Farage’s undisclosed £5m donations, and other undeclared support he has received from George Cottrell. These reports have probably had more impact on voters who already disliked Farage than on his supporters. But they have made him wary of media scrutiny, because when asked about these issues in interviews he inevitably looks shifty and evasive. At one point Reform UK’s most popular salesman went into hiding. In this sense, the ‘opportunity cost’ is significant.
4) The rise in Restore Britain. Rupert Lowe’s far-right Restore Britain party is still, in most respects, electorally irrelevant. But it is eating into the Reform UK vote a lot. Lowe also benefits from the backing of Elon Musk who promotes Restore Britain on his X platform.
5) Rightwing papers being less supportive. This is a consequence of Farage becoming less popular as much as a cause; these papers like to back a winner. But there has been a definite shift in tone.
6) Andy Burnham becoming PM, and Labour support rising as a result.
Of all these factors, 3) and 6) are probably the most important.
Reform UK infighting is probably a factor too – although every party led by Farage has been plagued by this problem.
Updated
Number of households in England in temporary accommodation reaches record high
The number of households in temporary accommodation in England has risen to a new record high, after a slight fall at the end of last year, the Press Association reports. PA says:
A total of 135,580 households were in this situation at the end of March, including 177,530 children.
The number of children in temporary accommodation – a form of homelessness – is also at a record high, with housing charity Shelter noting it is the 18th consecutive quarterly rise in child homelessness.
The figure for children in this kind of accommodation is up 5.2% from 168,710 at the same point last year, according to data published by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government.
The figures are the first since Andy Burnham took office in No 10, although they cover a period when his predecessor Keir Starmer was prime minister.
Sarah Elliot, chief executive of Shelter, said:
It is shameful that a record number of children are growing up without a home because decades of political failure have choked off the supply of genuinely affordable social homes.
Lee Buss-Blair, director of operations at Riverside, which provides accommodation for homeless people, said:
These latest figures are a stark reminder of the depth and breadth of the homelessness emergency across England.
There are 177,530 homeless children living in temporary accommodation (TA), more than the entire populations of North Lincolnshire (171,336) and Kingston Upon Thames (172,692).
With councils spending over £10bn on TA over the past five years and support needs of people affected by homelessness growing, it is deeply worrying that half of supported housing providers (56%) have said they will have to close or decommission services due to funding cuts.
Clacton byelection questions answered
Here are three byelection questions from readers.
Timing of result
What time are we likely to find out the result of the by-election please?
I can’t improve on this, from Andrew McDonald and Megan McElroy in their London Playbook briefing for Politico.
After the polls close at 10 p.m., we’re not expecting a result from Clacton until well into Friday morning. The most optimistic estimate Playbook heard was that it could come around 5 a.m. … more pessimistic estimates included 7 a.m. or 8 a.m. Even that is a guess. We are truly in “unprecedented territory” thanks to the 34-candidate ballot paper, as an official in Clacton told Playbook.
What happens to Farage if he loses?
I have a question about Nigel Farage’s political future. If he were to lose his seat as an MP (or step down) would he still be able to lead the Reform party and contest the next general election?
First, I should stress that I don’t know anyone who thinks there is even a slight chance of Farage losing. But it is a quiet afternoon in August – so let’s indulge in a hypothetical.
Yes, Farage could remain as Reform UK’s leader, and yes, he could fight the next election. Zack Polanski has led the Green party to its highest ratings ever without being an MP. Reform UK would have to choose a parliamentary leader, but being in parliament does not automatically allow you to overshadow a charismatic, non-MP leader. (Just ask the Greens’ parliamentary leader – if you can remember who she is.) Farage has never liked speaking in parliament much anyway.
Whether Farage would want to stay in politics or not is another matter.
Is the byelection a ruse to stymie the parliamentary inquiry into claims Farage broke rules by not declaring donations?
Readers have asked various versions of this question.
If Farage loses, does the inquiry wind up? No. The parliamentary commissioner for standards can continue inquiries into people who are no longer MPs, and has done so in the past.
If Farage is re-elected, does the investigation process have to start again from scratch? No. The current investigation can continue.
If Farage declares the £5m loan from Christopher Harborne, does that make up for the fact that he did not declare it after being elected in 2024? No. But, in the court of public opinion, that might be seen as a mitigating factor. If/when a report comes out saying he broke the rules by not declaring the donation, Farage would be able to argue this was ‘old news’ because he had already put the matter right. But his decision to try to neuter the inquiry by holding the byelection is likely to be seen as an aggravating factor – because it implies he does not respect the disciplinary process.
Met police chief says criminal justice system in 'precarious' state because of lack of investment
Sir Mark Rowley, commissioner of the Metropolitan police, has said that more public safety horrors are likely without more investment in the criminal justice system.
He was speaking in an interview on the Today programme where he said lack of spending was making the system “precarious”.
When Nick Robinson, the presenter, put it to him that he seemed to be saying, without more spending on policing and the courts, “more horrors will happen”, Rowley replied: “Yes.”
He went on:
We’ve too long systematically disinvested in public safety.
My officers have got cases of prolific knife carriers, charged with carrying knives, sometimes using them, being bailed back onto the streets. It’s harder and harder to get these cases through the courts.
We’ve got cases in London, assaulting emergency worker cases, domestic violence strangulation cases, being listed for [trial in] 2029, 2030. Those risks are carried in the community.
One of the intents of government is to use electronic tagging to monitor offenders in the community. Of course, that makes a lot of sense. We can’t put everyone in prison. That wouldn’t be appropriate.
But that tagging system is failing and there was a recent report on that.
And when we arrest people for breaching those tags, nothing ever happens anyway. So if it’s zero jeopardy, it’s become a pointless endeavour.
When Robinson asked if he was saying the rule of law was in jeopardy, Rowley replied:
It’s very, very precarious at the moment. Long-term disinvestment – you can see lots of issues breaking.
Rowley was on the programme to talk about the Simon Levy case. He admitted the police made mistakes.
But he suggested he deserved credit for speaking out about the problems.
I’m the leader stepping forward. There’s no one from the court service, no one from CPS … stepping forward and talking about their failures. We will always be publicly accountable. We’re the agency closest to the public. The reason we’re really worried and concerned by what’s going on is we’re the ones who see victims day in and day out.
The Liberal Democrats say today’s A&E figures from NHS England (see 12.53pm) show that drastic change is needed. In a statement, Helen Morgan, the party’s health spokesperson, said:
Labour isn’t working for our NHS. These devastating figures reveal the reality of patients across the country facing unacceptable, dangerous delays in emergency rooms, while ministers insult them with claims of progress. Behind every single one of the 302,000 long waits this summer is a loved one left suffering in an A&E waiting room, or on a trolley in a corridor with no privacy, dignity or faith in our healthcare system.
The Liberal Democrats have set out a clear plan to end these agonising 12-hour A&E waits within a year and end the scandal of corridor care once and for all. It is clear that current measures aren’t cutting it.
Richard Johnson, a politics lecturer, says the number of candidates standing in Clacton means the rules about election deposits need revising. In a post on social media, he says:
I have no objections to independents and minor parties standing, but what we have at the moment is a system which is increasingly attracting non-serious/joke candidates who are happy to throw away £500 for their 15 seconds of fame (and possibly for the much more valuable freepost), but with no benefit to anyone but themselves.
The deposit to stand for Parliament has not been increased since 1985, with inflation now substantially eroding its value. It is time to increase it.
For those who feel this would exclude poorer candidates, I would be open to introducing an alternative route to standing, which involves gathering signatures in place of a deposit or in exchange for a lower deposit (e.g., it remains £500 if you have a certain number of petitioners sign).
Burnham says he's 'angry' over rise in water charges, arguing this boosts case for more public control
Andy Burnham has accused water companies of treating their customers “as a bottomless source of funding” for the industry’s failings, after proposals which will push households bills even higher were approved.
As Jillian Ambrose reports, millions of households in England and Wales will face higher bills after water companies were given the green light by Ofwat to spend £3.4bn more than planned, including to support new homes and datacentres.
In a statement on the Ofwat decision, Burnham said:
I understand why people are angry – I am too. Today’s proposal for bill rises is real money out of family budgets at a time when they are struggling with the cost of living.
The truth is customers have been asked to pay more for years, yet serious pollution incidents are at record levels and the pipes are still leaking. None of which is the billpayer’s fault, who should not be treated as a bottomless source of funding for other people’s failures.
So we will hold these companies to account. Customers cannot be treated as a blank cheque. Where water companies seek to pass unnecessary costs onto households, they will be challenged.
Our water industry has clearly not been working for people for far too long. That’s why this government will be looking at how we can give the public more control and help keep bills as low as possible.
Jasper Jolly has more on this, and on what Burnham’s statement might mean, on the business live blog.
There are 34 candidates in the Clacton byelection. This is the most ever, and easily beats the previous record – 26 candidates in the Haltemprice and Howden byelection in 2008. That was quite similar to this one because it was triggered by an MP resigning to make a point (David Davis, who wanted to register opposition to Labour’s plan to allow terrorist suspects to be held for up to 42 days before being charged), and the other main parties chose to sit it out.
Andrew Teale has written a wonderfully detailed history of the constituency in a byelection preview in a post on his Substack blog. He says the number of candidates is causing considerable practical problems.
He explains:
The last time the record for candidates in a parliamentary by-election was broken was in Haltemprice and Howden in 2008, with 26 candidates standing then. That should have resulted in a ballot paper around 70 centimetres long, but the returning officer for Haltemprice and Howden couldn’t find a printing firm which could handle that. The election staff then had to seek emergency permission from the Electoral Commission to redesign the ballot paper with the 26 candidates arranged in two columns.
This time the Clacton returning officer has found a printer who can handle sheets of paper which are 90 centimetres long, but at a price: the printing costs for this by-election are far higher than normal. There are also going to be all sorts of issues at the count: apart from the difficulties in physically handling such a volume of paper, the ballot is simply too long to fit on Tendring’s normal counting tables. Tables are having to be doubled up to counter this, which will reduce the space available in the hall and lead to a slower count.
Extreme heat contributes to record 2.5m people visiting A&E in July, NHS England figures show
The number of patients in England being cared for in hospital corridors or makeshift areas has remained above 3,000 a day for the second month in a row, as the NHS experiences a “summer surge”, the Press Association reports.
This was happening as A&E attendance numbers reached 2.5m in July – higher than any other single month on record. May and June were also record months for A&E attendance, in part because of the extreme heat.
PA says:
Yvette Cooper, the health secretary, warned yesterday the health service must start planning for summer pressures in the same way as winter.
However, the data shows overall waiting times for treatment fell slightly in June after rising for two months in a row.
An average of 2,300 patients received corridor care in A&E departments in England each day in July, along with 728 patients elsewhere in hospital wards, totalling 3,028.
This is down slightly from an average of 2,439 patients in A&E departments and 749 in hospital wards each day in June, totalling 3,188.
It is the third time corridor care figures have been published by NHS England, and the second consecutive month they have remained above 3,000 a day.
The data covers patients who have been receiving corridor care for at least 45 minutes.
This means care did not take place in a clinically appropriate and safe setting where patients have privacy, access to food, water and toilets, and lights can be turned off and noise levels minimised to allow sleep.
Nuffield Trust deputy director of research, Sarah Scobie, said: “The fact that we even need a proper definition and data for corridor care in the NHS shows just how far A&E performance has spiralled out of control, with very long waits now the norm.
“The data from the last few months shows huge variation from day to day, so patients will be having very different experiences depending on which day they end up in hospital.
“But corridor care and long waits are not just a problem for A&E departments.
“What’s especially saddening in July’s data is that on almost every day of the month, there were cases of corridor care for children in other areas of hospitals while they waited for a proper bed on a ward.”
Elsewhere, the monthly performance figures also show the overall NHS waiting list fell after rising consecutively for two months.
An estimated 7.27m treatments were waiting to be carried out at the end of June, relating to 6.15m patients, down from 7.28m treatments and 6.16m patients at the end of May.
Commenting on why A&E attendance figures have been so high, NHS England said:
The NHS normally experiences spikes in demand during the summer months, as the public spends more time outside which can lead to a rise in accidents. But this summer has seen unprecedented pressure, with the heat contributing to an increase in admissions caused by more outdoor activity and respiratory issues linked to dry weather, as well as worsening of underlying medical conditions.
Scottish government minister defends John Swinney's bid to get ban on Chinese wind turbine investment lifted
Yesterday Michael Shanks, a UK energy minister, criticised John Swinney, the SNP Scottish first miniser, for trying to get Andy Burnham to lift a ban on the Chinese firm Ming Yang building a wind turbine factory in the Highlands.
Today Stephen Gethins, energy minister in the Scottish government, defended his boss. In an interview on BBC Radio Scotland’s Breakfast programme, Gethins said:
The first minister is right to ask about this. This is 1,500 jobs in the north of Scotland. It’s also an area that is being transformed by that move towards offshore renewables, Scotland continuing to contribute.
It’s an area which is, in general terms, important for security. Scotland is contributing to European energy security, which is a concern across Europe when you speak to leaders there.
Also, let’s be blunt: China is investing in the energy sector and the ICT sector, and in fact Chinese investment across Europe has gone up over the past couple of years.
Even in sensitive areas like information and communication technologies, energy presence in higher education, this will have a huge impact in terms of jobs, investment, but also us making that transition to renewables as well, which is well under way.
This is a massive blow, the veto that’s come from the UK government, and I think it’s absolutely right that the first minister asked the question why.
Count Binface claims he's 'won already', as Farage asks voters to exonerate him over sleaze claims
For more than two decades before the Brexit vote, Nigel Farage spent his time campaigning to restore the sovereignty of parliament. But his decision to trigger the Clacton byelection suggests that he is no longer such a big fan of the institution he claimed to cherish for so long.
He has posted a video message to supporters on X this morning and in it he says:
Why should I be judged, today or in history in the future, by Sky News and their ilk? Why should they be the people that decide my fate when, as I repeat, I’ve done nothing wrong.
I’m being judged as being guilty every single day by newspapers, broadcasters and elsewhere.
I will happily accept the judgement of these voters … I’ve decided that the people of Clacton should be the judges of my actions. This will be a people versus the establishment byelection.
Farage is referring to claims of wrongdoing relating to financial donations he accepted.
But his case is not being adjudicated by Sky News, or the Guardian, or anyone else. It is actually being adjudicated by parliament (the one that he wanted to make sovereign). The Commons makes laws for the people of Britain, but it also sets rules for MPs and Farage is currently being investigated over claims that he broke those rules by not declaring the £5m donation he received from Christopher Harborne and financial help he received from “Posh” George Cottrell. The investigation is being conducted by the parliamentary commissioner for standards, who is appointed by MPs to do this work. He has not said Farage is guilty because the investigation has not concluded.
Farage says he wants Clacton voters to have the final say on whether he behaved properly. Implicit in that is Farage rejecting the authority of the parliamentary process.
Count Binface claims that he (Binface) has won already. In an interview with Huffpost UK he says he is “bin it to win it”. And he has posted this on social media.
Cooper says making social care reform happen relies on public accepting everyone, not just dementia families, will benefit
Yvette Cooper, the health secretary, has said the government will need to persuade the public that everyone will benefit from social care reform, and not just families where someone gets dementia.
She made the point in an interview with George Osborne on his Political Currency podcast.
Andy Burnham has said that social care reform will be a priority for his government. But, as he admitted in a speech last month, he faces an uphill task because multiple attempts to reform the system over the past few decades have ended in failure.
Asked why so many previous attempts to secure reform had failed, Cooper said a key factor was making people realise that this issue affected everyone.
She said:
I think the thing we always failed to do is have a sense that this actually affects everybody. Because as long as you think, ‘Well, it might not affect my family, it’s not something I really need to worry about or focus on,’ that’s a problem.
The fact that it has such a massive impact now on our NHS, the fact that if you go to A&E, you could be waiting a lot longer because of failings in social care, that you could be waiting longer to get a bed in hospital, because there are people who are in hospital who don’t have social care – it affects all of us.
So it’s not just those families who have a really acute pressure. It’s affecting all of us.
But we still have to make that argument so everybody needs to feel part of it.
And that, I think, is what Andy was trying to do – make this a bigger argument, not just something that affects some people.
As Rowena Mason reports, in the interview Cooper also criticised Keir Starmer’s leadership style, saying Labour had “not done government very well” in the last couple of years.
Osborne co-hosts the podcast with Ed Balls, Cooper’s husband. But Osborne conducted the interview on its own. It’s available here.
Updated
Nigel Farage has voted in Clacton.
Back to Clacton, and Sarah Elizabeth Cox, who lives in the constituency, has written a good article for the Guardian about what the byelection has been like for residents.
Here is an extract.
Nobody wanted a byelection. For the many people struggling here, there is little energy for another awful circus. Clacton didn’t need yet more focus on Farage, Farage, Farage, while the area’s entrenched and complex problems continue to be ignored by him and by the government …
Yet in shops, the gym, pubs, on the beach, in the street, at the park, at nursery drop off, I’ve not overheard a single conversation about any of it, unless it was between a reporter and a local. Not one. The leaflets started getting left in the hallway, unread. Few of my family or neighbours plan to vote. We’re angry at him, but we are also bored, and exhausted.
My prediction: It’ll be a low turnout, Farage way ahead, with Binface second but the only real winner. I’ll read about how we wasted the chance for a hilarious outcome, you idiots. You gullible, racist fools. You deserve him. And so on. Then it’ll die down again, briefly, and we can get back to what’s left of the summer, the lives Farage has no clue about or interest in and keep talking about the things that really matter in Clacton: litter, landlords, potholes, parking and whether there’ll be a second series of Secret Lives of Gypsy Wives.
Minister defends zero-hours contracts ban, as BCC claims official figures show it will be 'hammer blow' to firms
Yesterday the Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Trade published a document saying that the government’s plan to ban zero-hours contracts could cost businesses up to £3bn a year. The government has already legislated for the ban, but it has not yet decided some of the precise details about how this will work and the document was published as part of a consultation. DBIST says:
The government has taken this forward through 3 measures in the Employment Rights Act 2025, giving employees the right to:
-guaranteed hours, where the number of hours offered reflects the hours worked by a qualifying worker during a reference period
-reasonable notice of shifts and changes to these
-payment for shifts cancelled, curtailed or moved at short notice
These measures have not yet taken effect. This consultation seeks input on details of the new rights, which will be set out in regulations.
The consultation is only running for two weeks, which suggests ministers already have a fairly good idea about how they intend to proceed.
The document has revived all the arguments used against the government when the Employment Rights Act was being debated, and the £3bn figure has attracted a lot of attention. The Times has splashed on the story. But it is just a figure for the maximum possible cost. The government’s central estimate is £1.1bn, as this chart indicates.
The British Chambers of Commerce said the figures show “the proposed changes to zero hours contracts will be a further hammer blow for many firms struggling to keep their heads above water.”
Jacqui Smith, the skills minister, was doing interviews for the government this morning. Speaking to Sky News, she defended the government’s plans. She said:
We will look very carefully at how we implement the changes that we have put in place through our Employment Rights Act.
But just to remind people why we did that in the first place, that’s to make sure that when people get into work, that will be work that is fairly paid, where they’ve got security, where they can combine it with the responsibilities that they have in their families.”
I don’t think it’s fair for somebody to be on a contract where they literally don’t know whether or not they’re going to be working at all, and yet they’re bound by that contract. So, that’s what we want to bring an end to.
UK economic growth slows down as Iran war pushes up energy prices
Economic growth slowed in the second quarter of the year, as the disruption unleashed by the Iran war began to take its toll, official figures show. Heather Stewart has the story.
Polls open in Clacton, as research shows Farage has spent more than £10,000 in byelection fight against Count Binface
Good morning. In the media, August is known as the “silly season”. With parliament not sitting and many people on holiday, there is less proper news than normal, which means the nonsense stories get (even) more attention than usual. We are almost slap bang in the middle of the month, and today we’ve got a silly season classic in Clacton, where Nigel Farage, the Reform UK candidate, is fighting a byelection in which his main opponent is a joke candidate who dresses up as a dustbin.
Farage is not inherently silly. Few politicians have been more consequential over the past quarter of a century (because he did more than any other single individual to make the Brexit referendum happen); for most of the past 16 months his party has had a big poll lead and he has a very realistic chance of being the next PM; and even if he doesn’t become PM, his hard-right, anti-migrant, crass, crypto-friendly populism will have changed British politics significantly.
But this byelection is rather absurd because it is essentially pointless; all it will do is postpone, not resolve, the verdict on the financial sleaze allegations that Farage is facing (his alleged failure to properly declare donations, including a £5m gift from a cryptocurrency billionaire).
Here is Alexandra Topping’s story.
Voting started in Clacton about two hours ago.
Normally there is not much new to report on polling day. But Politico has published a good story by John Johnston and he reveals that Reform UK has spent more than £10,000 during the election campaign on social media adverts designed to help it see off the threat from Count Binface. Johnston says:
POLITICO analysis of the Reform UK leader’s digital campaign messages shows that Farage has run a twin-track strategy in the seaside seat as polls open Thursday. The two key themes of the digital air war have been painting Farage as a champion for local residents — as well as an insurgent leader harried by the “establishment” machine.
Farage and his party have spent more than £10,000 pushing those messages via ads on Meta’s platforms — which include Facebook and Instagram — in the campaign so far.
Johnston says Farage is the only candidate in the byelection using “paid Meta features to bolster his online campaign”. He says:
Almost £1,000 has been spent on videos of Farage urging local supporters to request the party deliver and install an “I’m with Nigel” garden sign. Meanwhile, around £500 went to ads asking voters to return their postal votes and “send a message to the establishment.”
The largest single sum — between £4,000-£4,500 — was spent on an almost five-minute campaign video in which Farage waxes lyrical about the connection he’s made with local constituents, while claiming his party’s surging success has resulted in the powers-that-be using “foul means” to hamper him.
“Rather than being judged by the political class and the mainstream media, I am going to let you, the voters in the Clacton constituency, make a decision,” he said. “I want you to be my judge, not the political elite.”
There is not much else happening in Westminster politics. But it is a big day for A-level students, with results out this morning. Tom Ambrose is covering that on a separate live blog.
As I explained last month, we are no longer going to have comments open below the line on this blog. If you want to contact me, please email politics.live@theguardian.com. You can use this to flag up corrections, comments for publication, questions or complaints. There is a longer post here about how we hope this will work.
Updated
