Tony Blair in Brighton today. Photo: PA.
Despite offering substantially different predictions, all three of today's opinion polls contain bad news for Blair's government.
The News of the World's is the worst. It puts Labour in third place for the first time in more than 20 years. The Tories are on 32%, the Lib Dems on 29%, with Labour trailing on 28%. Such a share of the vote would spell wipeout for the party.
The Observer's poll is less catastrophic. The Tories are still ahead on 33%, but Labour is just a point behind on 32%. The Lib Dems are on 25%.
Luckily for Tony Blair, the pro-Labour bias in the distribution of parliamentary constituencies means that it would still win with a 24-seat majority under the Observer's projections. A loss of two more points could, however, mean a hung parliament.
The Independent on Sunday at least has Labour still in the lead on 32%, two percentage points ahead of the Tories. The Lib Dems are on 27%.
Despite Alan Milburn's insistence that "elections are what counts", this is not an auspicious start to Labour's conference. The party's answer is to focus on its domestic sell, offering new policies to reward the country's "hard-working families".
This may be hard, however, with the fate of the British hostage in Iraq, Ken Bigley, likely to dominate the week. Labour's Peter Hain has already been attacked by Mail on Sunday for suggesting that it was a mere "fringe issue" at the conference.
Delegates are also voting today on whether the issue of Iraq will be debated on Thursday. Last year the conference organisers managed to keep the war of the agenda. This year that may prove more difficult.
