Early voting in Tasmania's election points to the Liberals being in the box seat to rule, with the incumbent government's vote rising and Labor's collapsing.
Saturday's vote, triggered after minority Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in early June, is the island's second in 16 months.
All opinion polls have pointed to another hung parliament, with neither of the major parties gaining enough support to reach the 18-seat mark required for majority.
Early tallies at 8pm (AEDT) with 14 per cent of the vote counted showed a 2.4 per cent swing toward the Liberals and a 3.9 per cent swing away from Labor.
The ABC had called 12 seats for Labor, five for Labor and three for the Greens.
Independent Kristie Johnston had also retained her seat.
The Liberals held 14 seats coming into the poll, with Labor on 10, the Greens five and the remaining six either independents or other parties.
Election analyst Casey Briggs said it was unclear if the Liberals may end the election with more than 14 seats.
"The Liberal Party is looking well-placed to retain virtually all of their seats," Briggs said.
"They may even gain - as we have been talking about - a fourth in Braddon while Labor is struggling to keep its 10."
Labor has flagged trying to govern in minority even if they finish with fewer seats than the Liberals.
Mr Rockliff and Labor leader Dean Winter have both ruled out doing a formal deal with the Greens to govern.
However, Mr Winter has kept the door ajar for no-strings-attached informal supply and confidence arrangement with the Greens.
"In terms of who wins the most seats, we're in a very different political environment than we have been a number of elections ago," Labor upper house MP Sarah Lovell told the ABC.
"I don't know that it's fair to say that the party with the most seats automatically gets to claim victory."
Liberal incumbent MP Eric Abetz said the party with more seats should get first crack at governing.
"I have every expectation that at the end of tonight the Liberal Party will be holding more seats than the Labor Party," he said.
The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have been in minority since 2023 when two MPs quit to the crossbench.
Incumbent independents Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland, who are left-leaning and voted for the no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff, are likely to be returned.
It could be weeks for the final count to be completed, with the last postal votes not expected to arrive until the end of July
Election eve polling by YouGov had the Liberals (31 per cent) and Labor (30) neck-and-neck, followed by backing for independents (20) and the Greens (16).
There have been no big-spending promises in a campaign held under the shadow of ballooning budget debt, forecast to more than double to $13 billion in 2028.
The no-confidence motion against Mr Rockliff, put forward by Labor and supported by the Greens and three crossbenchers, was critical of the budget and a bungled ferry delivery.
Another key issue has been plans for a $945 million Hobart stadium, which is backed by the Liberals and Labor but opposed by the Greens and several crossbenchers.
