Labour and the Tories could be facing a Christmas election bloodbath in Scotland, according to one of the UK’s leading political analysts.
Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus consultancy group has forecast an landslide, with Jeremy Corbyn’s party losing all but one of its seven seats north of the Border.
The only seat Labour has been predicted to retain is Edinburgh South – held by the pro-EU candidate Ian Murray, who Len McCluskey’s Unite union attempted to deselect in October.
The Conservatives meanwhile could plunge from 13 to just five MPs, while the Lib Dems would pick up just one extra seat compared to 2017, taking their total to five. The SNP would be the big winner, with their total jumping from 35 to a huge 48 seats.
Baxter said: “It has been up and down for the SNP.
“Back in 2015, they swept almost the whole board but then the tide went out for them a bit in 2017.
“Now they seem to be coming back and that could translate into some really significant gains.
“My predictions are based on opinion polls and the sad fact is that there isn’t a huge amount of polling in Scotland.
“But if this poll is correct then what we’re seeing is the Lib Dems coming back because they were unpopular in Scotland after the coalition government.
“The SNP are in the happy position that they seem to have the votes of two Scots in five, and the others three are divided almost one Tory, one Labour and one Lib Dem.
“The first past the post system helps the party who gets the most votes and that is the SNP.
“If the poll is to be believed, they were just eight per cent ahead of the Conservatives last time and they’re now 18 per cent.
“So that is the driver of it, if the polls are right. The unionist opposition is fragmented.”
Baxter’s analysis suggests some of the most closely contested seats could include Ross Thomson’s Aberdeen South constituency and Scottish Secretary Alister Jack’s Dumfries and Galloway.
However, he added: “Given the lack of polling, it’s a bit fuzzy.
“We’re looking at this without our glasses on and the lights are a bit dim but we see the shape of the SNP doing quite well.
“Even if this poll had the SNP three per cent too high and the Conservatives three per cent too low, it would still be the SNP on 36 and the Conservatives on 24, which would be a gap bigger than last time.”
The Tories have an eight point lead over Labour across the UK.
But Conservative leader Boris Johnson could face tough competition from Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party
Farage has indicated he would agree not to field candidates in many marginal Tory constituencies.
But the anti-EU campaigner insisted the PM would have to dump his new Brexit deal with the EU in order to secure a pact.
Johnson has refused to back down, meaning Farage is set to field hopefuls against the Tories in more than 500 constituencies across the country.
Farage has also said that he is considering sending a letter to every home in the country to denounce Johnson’s new agreement with
Brussels as a sham.
Despite the worrying polling figures, Scottish Richard Leonard has insisted his party is still the biggest threat to the SNP.
He has said that winning over just 25,000 voters who backed other parties in 2017 would see the SNP lose 17 seats on December 12.
He added: “Nicola Sturgeon has launched a wave of attacks against the Labour Party as she knows we are her biggest threat in this election.
“She wants Boris Johnson back in Downing Street as she knows Labour’s transformative programme in government under Jeremy Corbyn will make the best and positive case for remaining in the UK.”
