DETROIT _ Hillary Clinton is hanging onto a narrow 4-point lead over Donald Trump in Michigan heading into the last weekend before Tuesday's election, with a new Detroit Free Press poll showing clear momentum for the Republican nominee in a state that several weeks ago was believed all but decided for the Democrat.
The poll, done exclusively for the Free Press by EPIC-MRA of Lansing, shows Clinton's support steady at 42 percent _ up a point from where it was late last month. But it also clearly shows Republicans and some independents rallying around Trump in the waning days of the campaign season, with his support up 4 points from two weeks ago to 38 percent.
Meanwhile, the number of undecided voters _ 13 percent _ remains extraordinarily high for this late in an election cycle, speaking to the high unfavorable marks voters give both major-party candidates. Should they break for Trump on Election Day, it could be decisive, though with that high a number this late in the campaign it could indicate many will sit out this race altogether.
"Half of them, I think, are going to end up not going to the polls," said EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn. "A lot of them are not motivated to vote." The new poll showed Trump's surge of support not coming from undecided voters or from voters switching from Clinton, but from those who had previously voiced support for Libertarian Gary Johnson. As the election approaches, Johnson's support fell from 9 points two weeks ago to 5 points now.
EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 likely voters between Tuesday and Thursday for the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means that while the poll showed a lead for Clinton in Michigan _ which hasn't turned for a Republican nominee for president since George H.W. Bush in 1988 _ it could well be in play on Tuesday, depending on whose voters turn out.
Before the March Democratic primary, polls done for the Free Press and other news organizations showed a clear, double-digit lead for Clinton over her rival for the nomination, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. But Sanders was able to capitalize on low turnout in traditional Democratic areas like Detroit to take a narrow _ and surprising _ victory over Clinton in Michigan, leading to plenty of Democratic jitters about what could happen Tuesday.
Certainly both campaigns have been treating Michigan as important recently. Clinton is in Detroit Friday for a get-out-the-vote rally and important surrogates for her have been in town most of the week, including her husband, former President Bill Clinton. Trump visited Grand Rapids and Warren earlier this week, and his children and running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, have been here as well. Both campaigns are advertising in Michigan, as well.
If Trump could turn Michigan _ which has always been among his targets as he went after disaffected, white, working-class voters in the Rust Belt _ it could help him broach Clinton's firewall of traditionally Democratic-voting states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A win in any of them, coupled with wins in North Carolina, Nevada or New Hampshire, could help turn the tide for the Republican nationally.
Real Clear Politics, a website that aggregates and averages out poll data, gives Clinton a 5.4-percentage-point lead in Michigan, counting the new Free Press poll _ but that is vast improvement for Trump given that Clinton's lead on the site was a whopping 12 points on Oct. 20 after he had been hurt by poor debate performances against her and an old "Access Hollywood" tape was released with Trump talking about his being able to kiss and grab women's genitals without their prior consent because of his celebrity.
As that controversy has faded from view, Trump's numbers have rebounded in battleground states, including Michigan, and nationally, though Clinton still holds small leads in Florida, Pennsylvania and elsewhere. The website FiveThirtyEight.com, which analyzes polling data, showed her with a 66 percent chance of winning the presidency Tuesday but noted that Trump if polls are only slightly off across the U.S., he could win.
Still, there was much for Clinton to be heartened by in the new Free Press poll. Her voters still tended to be more enthusiastic than Trump's on a scale of 1-to-10, and she continued to maintain a lead _ albeit, a shrinking one _ over Trump with younger voters, ahead 39 percent-36 percent among voters age 18-34. Among black voters, her margin also grew substantially, to 92 percent compared to 88 percent two weeks ago, as the number of undecided voters shrank.
She also continued to beat Trump not only among college educated voters _ 42 percent-36 percent _ but among those with a high school diploma or less education, 45 percent-34 percent. Trump had widely been expected to win among the latter. She also maintained sizable leads among labor union members and labor households overall.
Trump, however, has eaten into her lead in metro Detroit, the most populous part of the state, which she now leads 48 percent-35 percent compared to 50 percent-26 percent two weeks ago, when her overall lead in the state was seven points and before FBI Director James Comey announced that the agency would look into new emails found on a computer server belonging to former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner, the husband of one of her top aides.
Clinton still holds a 61 percent-15 percent lead over Trump in Wayne County, but is now trailing him 41 percent-31 percent in Macomb, long considered a spot where Trump could attract disaffected white working class voters. Perhaps more ominously for Clinton, her lead was down to 41 percent-37 percent in Oakland County, 10 points off what it was in late October. In Detroit, she led Trump 92 percent-2 percent with 3 percent undecided _ but most pundits believe that turnout in the city will be key to her chances.
Outstate, Trump leads _ but only slightly _ by 40 percent-38 percent.
Trump also held a similar 40 percent-36 percent lead among men statewide, a point up from two weeks ago, with 15 percent undecided. Among women, Clinton still had a commanding 11-point lead, 47 percent-36 percent, though that was down from 15 percent in late October. Twelve percent of women were undecided.
Among the 20 percent of voters who said that they had already turned in their absentee ballots, Clinton held a slight edge, 41 percent-37 percent but a large share _ 17 percent _ declined to share who they voted for.
The poll showed Clinton getting 83 percent of the support from the 42 percent of respondents who self identified as Democrats, with Trump getting 80 percent of the support from the 36 percent of those who described themselves as Republicans. That was a five-point increase for Trump among Republicans while Clinton's share of Democrats increased by a point.
Among the 19 percent of those surveyed who identified as independents, Trump led 32 percent-21 percent compared to a virtual 26 percent-25 percent tie two weeks ago. Undecideds among independent still remained sky high, however, at 33 percent.
