WASHINGTON _ A month after it appeared the race for president in Michigan might be all but over, Donald Trump has cut deeply into Hillary Clinton's post-convention lead, with an exclusive new Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV poll showing the Republican nominee has moved closer to tying the Democratic front-runner in a state that hasn't backed a Republican nominee since 1988.
Clinton, whose lead in some national and battleground state polls also has disappeared lately after building big margins in the wake of a successful convention this summer in Philadelphia, still leads Trump 38 percent-35 percent in Michigan, according to the poll done by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA for the Free Press, WXYZ-TV and their outstate partners. But that is within the poll's 4-percentage-point margin of error, and a significant drop from her 11-point lead last month.
"The race is tightening a lot in Michigan," said Bernie Porn, EPIC-MRA's pollster. "It may be a function of the timing of the survey and her health questions, (but) there has been a shift toward Trump. Whether it's going to be a permanent shift is yet to be determined."
Clinton still has led practically all of the head-to-head polls against Trump taken in Michigan, so it is not clear whether the Republican can finally break through in the state. But the trend line at least suggests that he has the potential for closing the gap in Michigan_potentially putting a key Democratic state in play_unless her campaign can reverse it.
Trump, unlike other recent Republican presidential candidates, has doggedly refused to write off Michigan, despite Clinton's earlier lead and a history of the state's voting for every Democratic presidential candidate since 1992.
While the real estate mogul and reality TV star hasn't spent widely on TV ads in the state, he has still outspent Clinton on air recently, and, perhaps more significantly, has made four visits to the state since early August_including one Wednesday to Flint. On the national stage, he also has relied more on scripted speeches and avoided making off-the-cuff statements that at times have even alienated his supporters.
Clinton, meanwhile, has had a tougher road in August with media reports continuing to raise questions about whether people who gave to the Clinton Foundation had special access to her while she was secretary of State, though there has been no specific evidence revealed to date that they did.
Then, last week, she made a gaffe of her own, referring to half of Trump's supporters as being "deplorables" and labeling them as bigots, though she later recanted the suggestion that she knew the percentage of his supporters who fit that label. While her statement was jumped on by the Trump campaign and denounced by others as unfair, Trump has made comments that fuel racial divisions, including branding Mexicans as rapists and criminals, suggesting an American-born judge couldn't be fair because of his heritage and calling for a ban on Muslim immigrants_though he later changed that to a proposed test of "American values" to enter the nation.
Trump and others have also called repeatedly for slowing the flow of refugees and immigrants from Syria and other majority Muslim countries engaged in civil war into the U.S. suggesting they are not being properly vetted despite the fact that they go through strict procedures and background checks. Michigan this year has taken in 1,229 Syrian refugees, more than any state other than California, and would be expected to take in an even larger number if more refugees are welcomed into the U.S. as has been proposed by Clinton and the Obama administration.
For the new poll, EPIC-MRA surveyed 400 likely voters beginning last Saturday, the day after Clinton's remarks about Trump's supporters and a day before she took a few days off the campaign trail to battle pneumonia. The poll found Clinton retained broad-based support across the state, but that her numbers had clearly fallen since the last poll.
The topline numbers showed her leading Trump 38 percent-35 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson (10 percent) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (4 percent) trailing. Thirteen percent remained undecided. In a two-way matchup, Clinton had a slightly larger edge, beating Trump 42 percent-38 percent.
Trump has clearly improved his standing among several demographics as the Nov. 8 election moved closer, however: Among white voters, what had been a 38 percent-36 percent lead for Clinton a month ago is now a 40 percent-32 percent lead for him. He also has taken a lead among men _ 38 percent-33 percent _ where she had held what was the slightest of margins in August.
He held an edge among voters with a high school education or less _ 40 percent-36 percent _ which was no surprise. But he also had gained among those with some post high-school education, and led 36 percent-32 percent. Clinton led among college graduates 41 percent-32 percent.
Perhaps more troubling for Clinton_who despite a sizable lead in the polls in the March primary lost to rival Bernie Sanders in Michigan_was a drop-off in support needed from key groups.
Where she led among every age group a month ago, she now trails with voters age 50-64 by 41 percent-33 percent. And what had been a whopping 24-point lead among voters 18-34 has dropped to 7 points, 31 percent-24 percent, with Johnson picking up support to match Trump's (24 percent).
Also, where Clinton led among black voters 85 percent-2 percent over Trump in August, that is now 74 percent-2 percent, with the poll showing some support migrating to Johnson and Stein and the undecided number growing from 10 percent to 14 percent _ a change which could spell trouble in a voting bloc that gave 95 percent of its support to President Barack Obama in 2012.
And in the most populous part of Michigan_Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties_where Clinton held a 53 percent-27 percent edge over Trump in August, she now holds a 47 percent-32 percent margin. Undecideds remained at 11 percent.
Clinton's support among people from union households fell from 49 percent to 41 percent, where Trump's rose from 29 percent to 37 percent _ though she appeared to continue to hold a wide margin among union members themselves. The UAW, Teamsters, AFL-CIO and others have endorsed Clinton.
Trump's improvement in the polls in the industrial Midwest is important to his campaign: All along, strategists have suggested he needs to tap into disaffected white workers in the region and take states across the Rust Belt to have a chance. On Wednesday, his arguments against free trade agreements appeared to be bolstered as Ford announced it would move all of its small car production to Mexico, though that does not appear to mean job losses in Michigan.
Ford's Mexican operations have been a target of Trump's since he announced his improbably successful run for the nomination last summer.
The events of the last month appeared to push the already larger number of those surveyed with an unfavorable view of Clinton even higher, from 51 percent to 56 percent, while Trump's even higher unfavorable number of 63 percent held steady. But 37 percent of respondents found him more trustworthy than her, while 30 percent said she was more trustworthy. Another 30 percent said neither could be described as "honest and trustworthy."
"It's the lesser of two evils," said Patti Maisonville, 55, a Farmington Hills voter who described herself as bipartisan, but said she is supporting Trump. "I think Hillary is playing above the law and I don't like that at all." She said she supports Trump and his stance on removing undocumented immigrants from the country_a stance he has somewhat softened on, at least regarding those who haven't been charged as criminals.
"I can't stand another Clinton in the White House," she added.
There was plenty in the poll, however, to indicate that despite the numbers moving in the wrong direction for her, Clinton could continue to hold, and potentially build on, her lead. More of her core support was certain it would vote for her than his was. And while voters believed him more likely to "keep our military forces strong" and "defeat ISIS," Clinton had much better marks among those who think she "will address international relations and foreign policy" and, perhaps most importantly, "has the right kind of experience and temperament to be commander in chief."
Trump, of late, has been trying to alter that perception of himself, largely sticking to scripted speeches rather than delivering off-the-cuff, aggressive_and often offensive_remarks that featured in some of his earlier rallies. He hasn't stopped entirely though, recently commenting that under his presidency, if an Iranian ship circled an American destroyer it would "be shot out of the water;" a comment that, in the absence of a threat and taken with others he has made about the use of nuclear weapons, was denounced as bellicose.
Several national polls have shown a near-even race of late and there's been a tightening in battleground states as well, with the Real Clear Politics average of polls showing Trump having pulled even or ahead in some key state such as Ohio and Florida. Clinton remains ahead, however, in other key states such as Pennsylvania, Colorado and Virginia_and an even race in North Carolina underscores the uphill climb Trump still has to win.
"I find him to be very unbalanced." said Allison Baker, a 50-year-old Grosse Pointe Park voter who considers herself a Democrat and is supporting Clinton. "He says things that are just wacky and I don't think he has a presidential demeanor. Hillary Clinton has a lot more experience." She also said she finds Clinton trustworthy.
Baker said most of her neighbors and friends are Republicans_including her husband_but say they can't support Trump. Her husband, she said, is considering voting for Clinton at this point.
"Most of them are very torn as to what to do," she said. "I find it shocking it's getting closer. I just can't believe it."
