For the last 10 months, as Juan Guaido has tried to seize control of Venezuela, he has had a huge asset on his side: the love of the people.
While his foe, Nicolas Maduro, controlled the military and sat in the Miraflores presidential palace, Guaido could legitimately claim that had the nation on his side and was far more popular.
Now a new poll suggests that, when it comes to approval ratings, the two men are in a statistical dead heat.
A survey by Meganalisis released Wednesday found that just 10% of those surveyed still "believe, trust and support" Guaido _ the man who the United States and 50 other nations consider the country's legitimate president. When asked about Maduro, who has been in power since 2013, the survey found that 9% said they still support him.
The survey of 1,580 people was conducted from Nov. 25 through Dec. 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7%, meaning the men are in a virtual tie.
The poll is just one more indication that Guaido, 36, is losing steam in his prolonged battle to wrest control from Maduro, and it paints a picture of an opposition on the ropes.
In particular, the survey found that just 11% of respondents said they still "trust and support" the opposition-controlled National Assembly. That body is seen as the last bastion of Venezuelan democracy by the international community and it's the only place where the opposition still holds sway.
But the legislative body has been rattled by corruption allegations. On Tuesday, congress opened an investigation into nine opposition lawmakers who are accused of lobbying on behalf of Colombian businessmen who were being investigated for their ties to Venezuela's controversial and corrupt subsidized-food program.
The survey reflects the growing distrust of lawmakers' intentions. A full 72% of respondents said they believed that opposition legislators were cutting secret deals with Maduro and the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela.
Even so, it's clear that Venezuela is desperate for change amid a grinding economic crisis that has forced millions to flee the country. Amid the breakdown, 82% said they were not receiving municipal water on a daily basis and 42% said their access to electricity was "terrible."
Currently, 87% of those surveyed said they wanted Maduro and his allies, or chavistas, out of office.
Meganalisis, a Caracas-based pollster, has been around for years and has been relatively accurate with its predictions in the past.
Guaido rose to prominence in January when announced that it was his constitutional duty, as head of congress, to assume the presidency. In his telling, Maduro, 57, had committed fraud in the 2018 presidential election to hold onto power and should be considered an illegitimate "usurper."
In the initial weeks and months, as the region rallied around Guaido, he was able to mobilize huge crowds that seemed to credibly threaten Maduro's hold on power. But recent marches have been weaker and Guaido's power seems to be waning.
Eighty-five percent of those surveyed said they would not take to the streets if asked to do so by Guaido or the National Assembly.
Maduro has long-maintained that Guaido is the figurehead of a Washington-backed coup attempt. And he says last year's electoral victory gives him the right to rule through 2025.
Guaido could face a crucial test next month when congress may hold a leadership vote. While the four main opposition parties have said they want to keep him at the helm and, therefore, as interim president, there are also rumors that he may face challengers.
In addition, the Maduro government is expected to call for new congressional elections sometime in 2020 � putting opposition control at risk.
The burgeoning political scandals and general malaise are "likely to further weaken the opposition and deepen divisions within Guaido's coalition," the Eurasia Group, a political analysis firm, wrote this week. "This comes as the opposition is already struggling to define a strategy having exhausted every option to force regime change."
